Shawn Siegele breaks down the battle between two controversial RB prospects who could go on Day 2 and explains why it’s easy to get caught up in a specific aspect of their profiles when the full picture is both more interesting and more complicated.
There’s more than one way to be a good NFL running back. That’s the fun part of evaluating prospects. It’s not a one-size-fits-all situation, either in terms of how you score at the NFL level or how you win in the pros.
Nowhere is this more obvious than in the contrasts between Israel Abanikanda and Roschon Johnson.
We can start with the similarities: Abanikanda (216) and Johnson (219) both have three-down size. They are also both anticipated to be Round 3 picks, although as two of the trendiest and most controversial players, it wouldn’t surprise if either comes off the board as the third overall back selected (in Round 2) or if either slides through into Day 3 (Round 4 or later).
Beyond that, we have a study in contrasts.
| Israel Abanikanda | Roschon Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 20.6 | 22.2 |
| Forty | 4.4 | 4.58 |
| Vertical | 40 | 31.5 |
| Final Rushing Yards | 1443 | 554 |
| Yards Per Carry | 6 | 6 |
| Receptions | 12 | 14 |
| Evasion Rate | 14.6 | 35.5 |
| Yards After Contact Per Att | 2.7 | 4 |
Abanikanda is much younger and much more athletic. He was also much more productive, gaining almost as many rushing yards this season as Johnson did over the last three years combined. Each back averaged 6.0 yards per carry, which is an encouraging number for Power 5 backs. How they gained that yardage is the big difference.
Johnson gained most of his yards after contact and posted an elite 35.5% evasion rate. Abanikanda gained more than half of his yards before contact and posted a pretty worrying 14.6% evasion rate.
But what does this mean? While there’s no question from a global perspective that you’d prefer – all else being equal – to have a high evasion rate and a high percentage of your yards after contact. However, what do we see when we look at the backs who really matter: those who go in the first 100 picks and have a strong chance to put up huge fantasy seasons. Are we comfortable with Bijan Robinson’s backup even though he never earned a full workload in that role? Are we comfortable with Abanikanda if he brings the youth and explosiveness to balance his lack of tackle-breaking prowess?
In this exercise, I’ll be delving back into the advanced stats from Sports Info Solutions that helped add insight to my Rookie Rankings Series.
2023 Rookie Rankings and Advanced Stats: The Elite Tier
2023 Rookie Rankings and Advanced Stats: Potential Breakout Stars
2023 Rookie Rankings and Advanced Stats: The Undervalued Upside Options
The Statistical Profiles of Recent Top-100 RB Selections Include Some Shock Value
For more on how to beat the NFL draft at the RB position, make sure you check out Blair Andrews’ recent series looking at which RB metrics help you smash draft position.
