Michael Dubner explains why you can very easily fade the fantasy MVP, and discusses the specific portfolio management technique that rescues you from the trap.
Although we used to get big seasons from Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Zach Ertz – and we had a short stretch of dominant play from George Kittle and Darren Waller – much of the dominance of Elite TE has just been a proxy for Kelce lapping the rest of the TE field over the last half decade.
Travis Kelce FFPC Win Rates
While running back and wide receiver roster constructions can ebb and flow based on general positional trends, tight end roster construction results are largely influenced by specific player profiles. It’s a onesie position with fewer players drafted.
The age-cliff concern (entering 2023 at age 33) is the only hole you could consider poking in Kelce’s profile, yet he has showed absolutely no signs of slowing down.
The case for Kelce is obvious. So why do I have a near full fade on Travis Kelce in best ball?
Dubner’s TE Exposures
When our target player exposure doesn’t match reality, people commonly say “my exposures will smooth out over time with a large enough volume of drafts.” And while it’s true that volume will smooth out some of the variance in player exposures, my personal experience with Kelce helps illustrate a key issue: exposures don’t always smooth out the way you may hope they will.
A Key Insight for Maximizing the Value of Your Overall Best Ball Portfolio
Worried that you can no longer win a tournament after missing on the elite QBs? These 3 QBs from the Window Have Massive Week 17 Upside.