Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the newly released Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the below walkthrough and take a spin through the tool.
Passing Game Matchup Rater Tutorial
Week 2 Matchups
Patriots at Dolphins
Kendrick Bourne posted the second-best performance of his fantasy career against the Eagles. He and Hunter Henry look poised to be Mac Jones’ first options in the revamped New England offense. Bourne led the team in routes run (45) and targets (11). He scores a middle-of-the-road matchup with the Dolphins’ secondary. He can expect significant coverage from Eli Apple. Apple hasn’t been an easy matchup, allowing 1.5 points per target (PPT) since the beginning of 2022.
In recent games, fantasy-relevant WRs opposing the Dolphins have scored exactly as many points as one would expect when using points per game (PPG) averages as a baseline. This doesn’t look like a smash spot for Bourne, but the runway for another performance meriting Flex or even WR3 contention is there.
Similarly, Hunter Henry’s matchup rating is middle of the road. In recent games, TEs have scored only three points more than expected when facing the Dolphins. Still, Henry converted five of six targets in Week 1, adding 56 yards and a touchdown. While a score isn’t guaranteed, his top five TE GLSP confirms his well-deserved spot in lineups as a starting TE or Flex option in deeper leagues.
JuJu Smith-Schuster was taken out of the game on New England’s last drive. In fact, he ran only 23 routes, whereas rookie WRs Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte recorded 25 and 37, respectively. It is hard to trust Smith-Schuster in Week 2 matchups.
It should be a solid outing for the Dolphins’ WRs with both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill producing matchup ratings of 69, and River Cracraft a 61.
Durham Smythe ran 40 routes in Week 1. The only TE who recorded more was Dalton Schultz. Plus, Smythe drew seven targets, converted three, and added 44 yards. Smythe doesn’t match up favorably with New England’s defense, but is worth keeping in mind for future weeks when a fill-in is needed.
Packers at Falcons
With Christian Watson expected to miss Green Bay’s tilt with the Falcons, Romeo Doubs will look to post another fringe WR1 week. That said, it won’t be easy. The Falcons aren’t a great matchup for the young wideout, as evidenced by his matchup rating of 41. Doubs will oppose the stout A.J. Terrell for a good portion of the game. Terrell is allowing just 3.8 PPG on direct targets and the rest of the team’s secondary has been impressive.
Between Week 13 and 18 of 2022, Terrell allowed just 1.0 PPT on direct targets. Diontae Johnson, who operates with similar alignment tendencies, struggled against Terrell, failing to record a single reception on six targets. While this doesn’t necessarily relegate Doubs to the bench, it’s possible that RotoViz readers have squads where Doubs isn’t a lineup guarantee.
Luke Musgrave scores poorly, and with Jayden Reed possessing an average matchup, Doubs looks like the only pass catcher of interest from Green Bay.
Drake London and Kyle Pitts draw slightly better-than-average matchups, but it probably doesn’t matter. The Falcons threw just 18 passes in Week 1, half of which were aimed at RBs. Start either option at your own risk.
| Player | RoutesRun | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 18 | 6 |
| Mack Hollins | 15 | 4 |
| Kyle Pitts | 17 | 3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 9 | 3 |
| Drake London | 17 | 1 |
| Desmond Ridder | 1 | 1 |
