Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the newly released Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the tutorial/walkthrough and take a spin through the tool.
Please note that we only touch upon players with 6.0 or more PPG in this article.
Matchups
Jaguars at Saints
The Jaguars face the Saints on Thursday night in a game that the Matchup Rater sees as an average contest for Jacksonville. The Saints are allowing WRs to score 99% of their average points per game (PPG) and TEs, 88%.
Christian Kirk, who draws the team’s highest matchup rating with a 54, will face significant coverage from Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore is allowing just 4.5 PPG on direct targets despite having played on a team-high 351 plays and ranking inside the top 30 in 2023 coverage snaps. Kirk is averaging 14.0 PPG and slot WRs with similar PPG have recorded 0.2 fewer points per target (PPT) than the league average when playing the Saints.
Calvin Ridley and the rest of the team’s WRs will see coverage from Paulson Adebo and Alontae Taylor, a duo that is allowing a combined 12.5 PPG on direct targets. The Saints haven’t played the most challenging collection of WRs this season, so a player as talented as Ridley could overcome this trend, but this doesn’t look like an obvious blowup spot for any of the Jacksonville receivers.
Evan Engram, the TE6 in PPG, will be the best TE that the Saints have faced this season. In Week 6, Dalton Schultz caught four of his seven targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. Engram has been a TE1 in five out of six games in 2023 and has a reasonable chance of doing so once more in this contest.
The Saints draw a more favorable matchup with the Jaguars’ defense that allows WRs to score 112% of PPG. Jacksonville’s secondary, which is allowing WRs to score a whole 0.3 PPT more than the league average, will spread coverage amongst the Saints’ WRs. With Chris Olave drawing a matchup rating of 71 and Rashid Shaheed a 69, look for New Orleans’ passing attack to put up some lofty point totals against a defense that has been overwhelmingly favorable toward WRs in recent games.
Top WR Scorers vs. JAC by Week, Last 5 Games
| Player | Team | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | YPR | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyy Moore | KC | 4 | 3 | 70 | 1 | 23.3 | 16 |
| Tank Dell | HOU | 7 | 5 | 145 | 1 | 29 | 25.5 |
| Drake London | ATL | 7 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | 11 | 8 | 121 | 1 | 15.1 | 26.1 |
| Michael Pittman Jr | IND | 13 | 9 | 109 | 0 | 12.1 | 19.9 |
| Average | 8.4 | 5.6 | 94.6 | 0.8 | 16.9 | 19.86 |
In addition to the above, Gabe Davis put up 22.0 PPR in Week 5, and Josh Downs 13.1 in Week 6.
