Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the newly released Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the tutorial/walkthrough and take a spin through the tool.
Please note that we only touch upon players with 6.0 or more PPG in this article.
Matchups
Cardinals at Seahawks
The Cardinals’ pass catchers are well-positioned against the Seahawks. Zach Ertz, Marquise Brown, and Michael Wilson all draw matchup ratings in the 70s.
The Seahawks are allowing the highest total overall PPG to opposing WRs and are struggling to cover WRs from the slot. Brown and Wilson don’t occupy the slot on the majority of their passing plays, but it would make sense for the Cardinals to move them into this alignment more than average in the contest. Carolina and Detroit both attacked Seattle from the slot and were successful when doing so.
Devon Witherspoon, Seattle’s main slot corner, is allowing 10.2 PPG on direct targets, and Riq Woolen, who will also spend some of the game covering Brown and Wilson, is allowing 7.7 PPG on direct targets. Given that WRs have also done significant damage when schemed into empty zones against the Seahawks, there should be ample opportunity for both receivers to score.
Zach Ertz’s matchup rating of 73 is the highest of all TEs. The Seahawks are allowing TEs to score 139% of PPG. This is the highest of all defenses. It does need to be noted that the team has not faced a tough selection of ends this season and as a result hasn’t surrendered high point totals so it’s not a given that Ertz has a great game. Still, this looks like a favorable matchup for the veteran.
This game also presents a favorable matchup for Seattle’s pass catchers with both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf scoring ratings in the 60s.
Metcalf will look to pick on Marco Wilson, who is allowing 14.2 PPG on direct targets and got bullied by Ja’Marr Chase in Week 5 allowing him to score two touchdowns while converting six of seven targets in direct coverage.
Lockett matches up favorably with the Cardinals as only three teams are allowing more overall PPG to WRs lined up in the slot. Since 2021, Lockett has averaged 3.2 PPT against the Cardinals, and in addition to coverage from Wilson can also expect coverage from Kei’Trel Clark, who is allowing 9.0 PPG on direct targets.
