The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.

Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

• This game is meaningless for the Ravens, but meaningful for a lot of other teams.
  • Pittsburgh doesn’t need to win to secure a playoff berth. But if they lose, a win by either Jacksonville or Las Vegas knocks them out. (Of course, a win doesn’t guarantee them a spot. Wins by Jacksonville and Buffalo would eliminate the Steelers barring other ties.)
  • If the Steelers win, the path to Buffalo being bounced from the playoffs altogether becomes much more realistic. A Buffalo loss and a Jacksonville win would then be (almost) enough to eliminate the Bills. (See below for clarification.)
  • The Jaguars control their own fate regardless of the outcome of this game — a win against Tennessee gets them into the playoffs no matter what. But if the Ravens win, Jacksonville could still make the playoffs with a loss, depending on the outcome of the Raiders-Broncos game. A win by Las Vegas would in that case eliminate the Steelers instead of the Jaguars.
• As games against divisional opponents are always tougher, one could argue Baltimore is incentivized to do what they can to guarantee they don’t face Pittsburgh in the playoffs. They may also be incentivized to play their starters to ensure Lamar Jackson remains the MVP front-runner. Nevertheless, it has already been announced Jackson will rest, and Tyler Huntley will start at quarterback. Jackson may have done enough to win MVP without the extra game.
• With Huntley at QB, this offense loses a step. The Steelers’ beatable pass defense looks less overmatched, and their strong rush defense could bottle up a Ravens’ rushing attack that will be missing a key dimension. They will also be without Odell Beckham and, in all likelihood, Zay Flowers.
• It’s not that far-fetched to think the Steelers could come up with a win if Baltimore’s offense isn’t at full strength. Only two teams are better at evading tackles, and the Ravens are one of the weakest defenses against the run. Pittsburgh continues to use Najee Harris as the primary rusher, even though Jaylen Warren has been better in every way.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

• Unlike the Ravens-Steelers matchup, this game between the Texans and Colts is almost completely isolated. The results of this game affect (mostly) only its two participants, and this is the only game that affects either the Texans’ or the Colts’ chances to make the playoffs. If the Colts win, they are in and the Texans are out. If the Texans win, they are in and the Colts are out.
  • The only other game that is significant for these teams is the Jaguars-Titans game. If Jacksonville loses, then the winner of this matchup will enter the playoffs as the No. 4 seed and play at home against the Browns in the Wild Card round.
  • Otherwise, the winner of this game will get either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed, depending on who wins between Miami and Buffalo. If it’s Buffalo, the winner here will get the seventh seed and will go on the road to face the Bills. If it’s Miami, they will get the sixth seed and play in Kansas City.
  • The lone exception to what I said above concerns what happens if the Texans and Colts tie. Then things get complicated, but basically the Texans need Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh. If that happens, and the Jaguars lose, then Houston is in. The Colts can get in with either a Baltimore or Pittsburgh win, but if the Steelers and Jaguars both win, then the Colts are out. In other words, in the case of a tie, there are scenarios where both of these teams miss the playoffs.
  • A Texans-Colts tie would also guarantee the Bills a playoff spot, regardless of what else happens.^[1]Hence the “almost” above.
• In any event, neither of these teams can worry about the downstream scenarios too much — they need to win on Saturday first. And both of these defenses will give up opportunities for points.
• C.J. Stroud returned to the field last week after a prolonged absence due to a concussion. His performance wasn’t quite what we’ve come to expect, but it also wasn’t needed as Houston demolished the Titans.
• Noah Brown has already been ruled out, and Robert Woods is questionable. Stroud will lean on Nico Collins against a Colts defense that gives up a high rate of positive-EPA plays. Devin Singletary should also be able to find space to run against a beatable Indianapolis rush defense.
• Jonathan Taylor might have more difficulty. The Texans are No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed and No. 4 in rushing EPA allowed. That said, they are susceptible to big plays through the air. Although they play tight coverage against WRs, they haven’t been able to turn that coverage into an effective pass defense.
• Josh Downs gets the best individual matchup and will look to take advantage of a Texans defense that will also be without multiple starters on the defense line.