The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m using the most recent eight weeks to look at the metrics that will help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
- The Falcons are playing for a non-guaranteed playoff berth — even if they win they only get in if the Panthers beat the Buccaneers. Yet one wonders whether their long-term future wouldn’t be better secured by being utterly humiliated in this game, forcing a coaching change. The Falcons are absolutely one of the teams who should be calling Chicago about the No. 1 pick, and they should probably give up almost anything. It’s not ideal, but I wouldn’t even be sad if Drake London and/or Kyle Pitts went to play with Justin Fields. (I have no idea whether those are remotely realistic possibilities.) Taylor Heinicke is questionable, but QB play has had limited impact on an offense designed to get niche players open for shot plays.
- The Saints have a slightly more convoluted path that depends not only on winning this game, but also on either a Panthers’ win or both a Bears’ and Cardinals’ win. If either team loses, they are eliminated. A tie gives the advantage to the Saints.
- Both teams enter with some question marks on offense, and fairly strong defenses. The Saints are somehow one of the top passing teams in the league — only three teams generate big passing plays at a higher rate. They are also among the weakest rushing teams. Only one team generates big rushing plays at a lower rate.
- The Falcons want to run the ball on every play, and New Orleans’ defense sets up well for them to achieve this. No team allows more yards before contact.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
- This game doesn’t matter for the Titans, who can play spoiler, though even a Tennessee win doesn’t guarantee Jacksonville is out. Wins by the Ravens and Raiders would save the Jaguars (assuming no ties elsewhere). On the other hand, Jacksonville controls their own fate. If they win, they are in.
- The good news for the Jaguars is that Tennessee presents one of the easiest passing matchups. They are in the bottom six in all EPA-based metrics against the pass. Jacksonville is No. 12 in passing success rate and No. 11 in passing boom rate.
- Trevor Lawrence is listed as questionable, but with a playoff spot on the line there is almost no way he doesn’t play. Nevertheless if he’s not 100%, we could see the Jaguars try to lean more on their running game. That will be more difficult, as only one team allows less rushing FPOE than the Titans.
- Jacksonville shouldn’t have much trouble stopping a Titans offense that is already playing for next year. Will Levis is out, and Titans fans are humorously happy with that fact, despite the need to get a clearer picture of whether he offers any upside for next year.
