2024 Projections: Jonathon Brooks and Diontae Johnson Look to To Take Control of the Panthers’ Offense
Image Credit: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Bryce Young.

Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Carolina Panthers while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume.

Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands of times. This year, I have added steps to better understand how a player’s fantasy scoring could increase or decrease if changes in his market shares or his team’s play volumes were considered. Although my projections will inevitably have some large variances from actuals, this process will allow us to better understand a player’s potential upside and downside. (Quarterbacks were not included in this process as more nuance would be required and this exercise felt like one more suitable for the other positions. If time allows, I will hone in on something similar for passers.)

Team Level Considerations

My baseline projection positions the Panthers as a middle-of-the-road team in terms of overall play volume. Specifically, it places the team in the 64th percentile of passing and 41st percentile of rushing based on my 2024 projections set when this article was published.

Baseline Projections Player-Level Summary

  • While a Steeler, Diontae Johnson eclipsed 85 receptions three times. His touchdown total of six could dip, but across 17 games his baseline projection is fairly similar to his historical results.
  • Jonathon Brooks might have more questions but has a clear path to a significant role in the offense and a pickup in overall touchdowns could be possible.
  • Adam Thielen’s baseline assumes that 10-year veteran takes a significant step back as Johnson usurps his WR1 role. Thielen’s 2023 production was significantly frontloaded and at this point in his career, it’s hard to imagine him reclaiming the flashes he showed to start the season. Furthermore, rookie Xavier Legette is expected to come on strong as the season progresses and push Thielen for targets. With an efficient season, he could outscore the veteran.

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…

Dave Caban

Senior Fantasy Analyst, app developer, hosts the RotoViz Radio Flagship, auction draft enthusiast.

Going Deep: Week 14 Passing Matchups Preview, Part 2

Dave Caban uses the Passing Game Matchup Rater and other RotoViz tools to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. Will Jake Ferguson have a big impact in his return to the lineup?

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Going Deep: Week 13 Passing Matchups Preview

Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the tutorial/walkthrough and…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Going Deep: Week 14 Passing Matchups Preview, Part 2

Dave Caban uses the Passing Game Matchup Rater and other RotoViz tools to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. Will Jake Ferguson have a big impact in his return to the lineup?

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Going Deep: Week 13 Passing Matchups Preview

Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the tutorial/walkthrough and…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

The Blitz

Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.