2024’s Scariest RB Profile Is Ridiculously Expensive and Threatens Austin Ekeler-Level Damage
Image Credit: Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Austin Ekeler.

Shawn Siegele explains why the scariest RB Dead Zone profile is priced above the dead zone and threatens to torpedo your roster like Dalvin Cook in 2022 or Austin Ekeler in 2023.

My most notorious player-related article came right at the beginning. In June 2013 I argued that Adrian Peterson was not worth a top-five pick. This was six months after he came within 9 yards of breaking the single-season rushing record and five months before Zero RB, Antifragility, and the Myth of Value-Based Drafting recommended a contingency-based approach to roster construction.

This was also during the days of utter RB dominance at the top of the fantasy football drafts, and Peterson had led the position in scoring during his magical age-27 season. But he hadn’t finished in the top five on a per-game basis in either 2010 or 2011. He wouldn’t finish in the top five in 2013 either. In 2014 he suffered a serious injury during Week 1, and in 2015 he defied medical expectations by returning to lead the position in rushing yards . . . and still lost the RB1 title to Devonta Freeman by almost five PPG.

Profile matters, and fantasy managers understand that lesson better now, although Derrick Henry is still going in Round 2. (Don’t worry. This isn’t about Henry.)

A year ago, Austin Ekeler was coming off a string of ridiculous fantasy seasons. His 2022 campaign featured 107 receptions with 18 total touchdowns and culminated in a 32-point PPR performance in Week 17 that clinched leagues and tournaments everywhere.

That all changed in 2023.

Ekeler had ranked in the top five in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) in three of the previous four seasons, but that playmaking vanished during his age-27 season (after an injury in Week 1). A haphazard offensive design hastened the collapse, and yet the breadcrumbs were present even during his otherwise sterling 2022 performance.

Of course, the much closer comp for our 2024 land mine probably comes in the form of Dalvin Cook’s 2022 season. I’ll explain why that’s the case and help you create a framework for avoiding roster-killing RB selections in today’s exercise.

New to the RB Dead Zone concept? Don’t miss my in-depth discussion with Ben Gretch, whose Dead Zone research helped revolutionize early-round drafting.

Want a deep dive into the RBs you should draft instead? 2023’s Best Player Hack Gives Us 4 Tournament-Winning RBs for 2024. Plus, don’t miss Mat Irby’s look at 1 Myth and 1 Key Metric for QB Evaluation.

Avoiding RB Landmines Is the Key to Every Fantasy Season

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…

Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

The Blitz

Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.