Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below obviously can’t fully account for new or recent changes in personnel or injuries — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic. The notes below focus on how the matchups and injury news could impact fantasy performances.
One note on the images below: All rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
- J.K. Dobbins has been ruled out.
- Gus Edwards will start in his place, and we will likely see more Kimani Vidal, who hasn’t played since Week 9. The Falcons are a beatable rushing matchup — only eight teams give up more rushing yards per play.
- However, no team allows more rushing yards per play than the Chargers, and no team allows a higher explosive run rate. This could be the week Bijan Robinson proves he deserves to be in the conversation for the 1.01 next year.
- While Atlanta will be able to lean on their running game, the Chargers might find that they need to air it out more than they’d like. The good news is that the Falcons won’t put up much resistance. Only three teams allow more EPA per pass.
- The Passing Game Matchup Rater likes the outlooks for both Ladd McConkey and Josh Palmer.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
- Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins were both on the injury report to start the week, but have since been removed. Yet the Bengals could still find it difficult to pass against an aggressive Pittsburgh defense.
- The problem is that it’s almost equally hard to run against the Steelers. However, running backs have still been able to score fantasy points in recent weeks.
- Pittsburgh’s issue is that they give up a lot of YAC over expected. Cincinnati should try to exploit this by getting the ball to their playmakers in space, and this includes Chase Brown.
- The Bengals aren’t as stingy in either phase, but they are especially forgiving against the pass. Only six teams have better WR matchups according to the Strength of Schedule Streaming app.
