Shawn Siegele breaks down the criteria we’re looking for in fifth-year breakout wide receivers and explains what it means for the veteran WRs who could become the next Emmanuel Sanders, Doug Baldwin, or Adam Thielen.
Every year I publish the full breakout series, helping readers find the key metrics that lead to league-winning jumps at WR. My goal with the series is to help readers get exposure to the receivers who offer a compelling breakout thesis for the price, but also to hel subscribers understand the differences between player profiles that emerge on different career trajectories. A fifth-year breakout looks very different from a rookie breakout, and we want to understand those differences so we can create the most upside for the price.
Helping you find the right breakouts and make asymmetrical bets in your favor has been a cornerstone of RotoViz since its birth when we helped you load up on Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery in 2013, recommendations that made a killing for our readers. We followed that by encouraging readers to load up on DeAndre Hopkins in 2014 and readers have been flocking to us for our evidence-based breakout picks ever since.
In Part 1 of the 2021 series, I’ll be looking at fifth-year WRs. This group isn’t nearly as sexy as the all-powerful second-year studs, but over the last decade, we’ve averaged one breakout a year from this group. Five of those receivers have gone on to become multi-year fantasy stars, so the benefit of creating some exposure is obvious.
Fifth-year WRs also follow a different path to their breakouts, which makes understanding the profiles all the more important. Today I’ll dive into the fifth-year profile and discuss player targets.
