Shawn Siegele breaks down the Zero RB Universe with trade ideas, deep stashes, start/sit thoughts, and much more as we head toward Week 5 of the 2024 fantasy football season.
The Zero RB Universe covers the entire RB landscape, not just a single type of build. This isn’t a waiver wire piece. Kevin Szafraniec has you covered for that. We’re trying to understand the RB position in a deeper way so we can create the same types of rosters that we’re looking to build preseason.
The Zero RB Universe is about understanding the position well enough to make those start/sit decisions easier, to help you win dynasty trades, to stay two steps out in front of your league with look-ahead FA stashes. To accomplish these goals, we’ll rely on the Weekly Stat Explorer, the RotoViz Screener, the Advanced Stat Explorer, Advanced Team Stat Explorer, the Strength of Schedule Streamer, the Matchup Analysis tab from the NFL Player Explorer, and more. We’ll benefit from the deep insights of the Sports Info Solutions stats and charting info that power many of our tools.
When Dynamic Backs Evade Tackles Good Things Happen
D’Andre Swift and Chase Brown ranked 1-2 in yards after contact with 66 and 60 respectively. A large percentage of their overall yardage came after contact, and yet they were only credited with a single evaded tackle in each case. Derrick Henry only generated 50 of his 199 rushing yards after contact, but he was credited with five evaded tackles. Less than half of James Conner’s 104 yards came after contact, but he was credited with a whopping seven evaded tackles.
Although yards after contact are more indicative of future value than yards before contact, don’t miss out on the value of evaded tackles and their ability to create yards either before or after contact – and that the overall yards matter.
To buttress a claim I made in Monday’s article, specifically that Brown is the most explosive back in football over the first five yards, he currently leads the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (4.1) and in stuff rate (6.9%) among backs with at least 20 carries. He’s averaging more yards after contact than Zack Moss is averaging total yards (3.9). (Twenty-two backs with at least 20 carries are averaging less overall than Brown is averaging after contact.) Brown has also been much better than Moss in categories like points above average, boom, and bust with at least seven defenders in the box.
If you’re a Brown skeptic, this doesn’t mean that you should change your perception based on a tiny sample of 29 carries, and if you’re a Brown enthusiast, it doesn’t mean you should run out and trade for him in every league (or reach for him in resurrection formats). But it is encouraging that the numbers fit with our preseason thesis, and it’s possible that his impressive performance on a larger workload in Week 4 could push him to the front of this committee.
The Numbers Support the Eye Test for Bucky Irving
Our other favorite RB, Bucky Irving, is also impressing. Irving evaded five tackles on his 10 carries, giving him the second-best evasion rate among all backs with at least five carries in Week 4. On the season, five backs currently average at least 3.0 yards after contact with a 20% or higher evasion rate:
- Antonio Gibson (4.1/24%)
- Rhamondre Stevenson (3.3/26%)
- Bucky Irving (3.3/23%)
- Travis Etienne (3.2/21%)
- Jerome Ford (3.0/31%)
All of these backs have been good, but three of the other four play for teams that have benefited from the three easiest RB schedules to this point. The Bucs have faced one of the most difficult. Unfortunately, their remaining schedule is also one of the hardest in football.
As was the case with Brown, we have a small NFL sample to evaluate Irving, but when you’re trying to earn a starting job, it’s imperative to impress in those limited opportunities. The rookie’s early-season exploits are right in line with his elite performances at Oregon over the last two seasons.
Zero RB Universe: Time to Dominate the Bye Weeks
Let’s jump into the details where we’ll cover RB Expected Points, individual and team opportunity, advanced rushing peripherals, advanced receiving peripherals, and look-ahead opportunities with stash options and schedule-based plays.
