Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Have Drafters Fixed a Key Mistake As They Attempt to Win the $100,000 FFPC Best Ball Tournament?

Shawn Siegele examines the behavior of drafters and explains why it gives us confidence in our 2021 draft plan. Zachary Kreuger and I are putting the final touches on our draft plan for the live Roster Locked FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament draft on Saturday. Yesterday, Zach looked at some of the schedule-based elements as we try to run the Week 14-17 gauntlet. In my…...

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Roster Locked Special Part 1: Exploit the Schedule to Win the FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament

Earlier this spring, Dave Caban and the powers that be at RotoViz were generous enough to give me a platform to host a weekly best ball live stream. For those that haven’t checked it out, you can tune into Roster Locked: A Best Ball Show, live on RotoViz’s YouTube channel. Shows generally air every Saturday (occasionally Friday) night around 7:00 PM EST or later. This…...

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Favorite or Underdog? Answering That Question Is Critical to Best Ball Success

Quarterbacks are being drafted earlier than ever, making it essential we do our homework at the position. In a study I did last June, I found that quarterbacks generally score more points when they are favored. Specifically, they perform best when they are slight favorites (3.5 to 6.5 points), followed by clear favorites (-7 or better), then in toss-ups (-3 to +3), as slight underdogs…...

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What Do Devy Drafts Look Like in Established Leagues? Breaking Down a 2-Round Experts Draft

Shawn Siegele breaks down the first two rounds of a devy draft in one of his most competitive expert leagues. A few weeks ago our college football and developmental dynasty guru, Travis May, put together a cool look at a three-round draft that was a mix of rookie and devy. It helps answer some key questions for startup managers. Where do the current devy assets…...

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Inaccurate Auction Valuations Make It Possible for You to Draft a Super Team

This year I got roped into yet another league bringing the official total to … too many. This particular league is an auction draft which in my opinion is the all-time best format for analytics-driven fantasy managers to gain an edge. Rather than being forced into the confines of your draft position, you are free to define your own strategy. Planning In an auction draft,…...

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Running Back Draft Age Is Still Exploitable And It Provides an Earlier, Larger Edge Than You Might Think, The Wrong Read, No. 72

Blair Andrews revisits his research on running back draft age. Do younger RBs still provide an edge? Where does that edge come from? And which RBs should we be targeting in redraft and trading for in dynasty? We know, when looking for fantasy wide receiver prospects, younger is generally better. Does this hold for running back prospects? In the Wrong Read, No 30, I found…...

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Early-Round Tactics Are Crucial If You Want to Take Down the FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament

In his first look at the FFPC $100,000 best ball tournament, Shawn Siegele breaks down the early-round tactics that separate contenders and pretenders. We’ve written extensively on the FFPC Classic and Superflex options in best ball, helping you take down these contests with insights from the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer and the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer. Today we’ll jump into the FFPC $100,00 best…...

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4 Core Elements to More and Better Dynasty Trades, Plus Examples from RotoViz TriFlex Startups

Shawn Siegele discusses the importance of trading during dynasty startups and outlines concepts that will help you dominate leagues like the new RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty format from the FFPC. Blair Andrews and I recently participated in a dynasty startup in the awesome RotoViz TriFlex format. This new offering from the FFPC includes superflex, TE Premium, a greater emphasis on wide receivers, and more flex spots…...

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Chicago’s League-Winning Fantasy WR May Not Be the Most Obvious Option

As part of an ongoing Rookie Comparison Series, Sam Wallace takes a closer look at Darnell Mooney’s rookie season through the lens of The RotoViz Screener. Does the arrival of rookie quarterback Justin Fields signify a second-year breakout or is Mooney best left on your bench? An annual tradition in the fantasy football community consists of trying to identify the next breakout wide receiver. At…...

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Breaking Down a Loaded Best Ball Draft: The Most Provocative Picks from the Industry’s Top Minds

Shawn Siegele breaks down all 20 rounds of the 2021 MFL10 of Death and takes you behind the scenes with the Roster Construction Explorer. The MFL10 of Death VIII lived up to its name in 2021. Here’s an example: In normal leagues, 43 running backs and 50 wide receivers are going in the first 10 rounds. Our split was 36/56. That’s much more efficient drafting…...

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When Is the Best Time to Draft Your Best Ball Tournament Teams?

With the popularity of best ball tournaments on Underdog Best Ball Mania, DraftKings Millionaire and Play Action, FFPC Best Ball Tournament, and Drafters Best Ball Championship, game theory has overtaken the best ball world. Best Ball drafters are preoccupied with their favorite team stacks, game stacking opposing offenses in the fantasy playoffs, and taking on hyper- versus anti- fragile roster constructions. It’s important to consider…...

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Five Tight Ends to Target in the Late Rounds of Best Ball Drafts

When it comes to tight ends in fantasy football, the accepted wisdom is that you either take them early in drafts, or you take them late. In 2021, taking one early would likely mean spending a first-round pick on Travis Kelce, or landing George Kittle in the second. Or perhaps you really keep your powder dry and wait until round three to land Darren Waller…....

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Racing Father Time: 2 Aging Veterans Who Could Be The Missing Piece You Need For A Title Run In 2021

Sam Wallace identifies two veteran players to consider adding to your dynasty squads this offseason as you work towards a fantasy championship in 2021. Player values continuously fluctuate during the calendar year. Dynasty managers have become adept at determining the most optimal time to trade away, or trade for, players and future rookie picks. We all know when rookie fever sets in, and we’ve heard…...

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Three Round Mixed Devy and 2021 Rookie Draft: The Future of the NFL

What will the future of the NFL look like? Which young players will rise to stardom as the next generation of household NFL names? Will this year’s rookie class be full of studs, or duds? And what current college players are set to burst through this fall and hear their names called early on in the next few NFL Drafts? That’s exactly what we dive…...

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Heart vs. Head: 6 Second-Year Running Backs to Make or Break Your Best Ball Teams

Like product loyalists lining the outside of a store for the latest drop in technology, fantasy drafters flock to draft lobbies looking to acquire anything new and exciting. If it’s perceived as being “cool” or trendy, there’s a good chance they want it. Chances are, you want it too. Unfortunately, as is the case in both reality and fantasy, sometimes what we want isn’t what…...

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RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty and Why Trading Back Is a Win-Now Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 71

The goal in any dynasty league is, or at least should be, to put yourself in what Shawn Siegele has called the Permanent Championship Window (PCW). Proponents of the PCW look at the debate between win-now and win-later strategies and ask, “why not both?” Suppose you could win in Year 1 … and also in Year 2, Year 3, and beyond. If winning now and…...

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Pounding the Table: RotoViz’s Favorite Under the Radar Rookies

If the tales of various former scouts and front office executives are to be believed, every year during the NFL Draft there will come a time when an evaluator will vigorously champion the cause for a player he dearly wants the team to draft. Often these incidents occur late in the draft after the obvious blue chippers have all been taken. But the scouts, people…...

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Darren Waller Generated a 14% Win Rate in 2020 – He’s Now the Most Important Decision in Your Draft

Shawn Siegele explains why history says your best ball success in 2021 will come down to the decisions you make at tight end. I did select Darren Waller with the 2.06 in the MFL10 of Death, and I do like Waller as the TE2 this season. He’s one of the most unique physical talents in the NFL, and he’s coming off of two dynamic fantasy…...

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The Simple and Yet Extremely Unpopular Decision That Puts Your Best Ball Team on the Path to Victory

Shawn Siegele is a three-time MFL10 of Death champion. He helps you prepare to be lucky by sharing his favorite best ball roster hacks during this week’s event. This is one of the most fun weeks in the fantasy calendar for me as I get to compete against my favorite people. Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death VIII kicked off on Monday, and you can track…...

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Mind the Gap: Relative ADP at Running Back and the Psychology of Overconfidence

Everyone wants to draft Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. They’re probably the two best players in fantasy, and adding an elite running back to your squad in Round 1 gives you a massive leg up over your opponents. The reason those high-end RB1s are so valuable is that there are so few of them. Most teams use a committee nowadays, which makes sense from a…...

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Have Drafters Fixed a Key Mistake As They Attempt to Win the $100,000 FFPC Best Ball Tournament?

Shawn Siegele examines the behavior of drafters and explains why it gives us confidence in our 2021 draft plan. Zachary Kreuger and I are putting the final touches on our draft plan for the live Roster Locked FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament draft on Saturday. Yesterday, Zach looked at some of the schedule-based elements as we try to run the Week 14-17 gauntlet. In my…...

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Roster Locked Special Part 1: Exploit the Schedule to Win the FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament

Earlier this spring, Dave Caban and the powers that be at RotoViz were generous enough to give me a platform to host a weekly best ball live stream. For those that haven’t checked it out, you can tune into Roster Locked: A Best Ball Show, live on RotoViz’s YouTube channel. Shows generally air every Saturday (occasionally Friday) night around 7:00 PM EST or later. This…...

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Favorite or Underdog? Answering That Question Is Critical to Best Ball Success

Quarterbacks are being drafted earlier than ever, making it essential we do our homework at the position. In a study I did last June, I found that quarterbacks generally score more points when they are favored. Specifically, they perform best when they are slight favorites (3.5 to 6.5 points), followed by clear favorites (-7 or better), then in toss-ups (-3 to +3), as slight underdogs…...

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What Do Devy Drafts Look Like in Established Leagues? Breaking Down a 2-Round Experts Draft

Shawn Siegele breaks down the first two rounds of a devy draft in one of his most competitive expert leagues. A few weeks ago our college football and developmental dynasty guru, Travis May, put together a cool look at a three-round draft that was a mix of rookie and devy. It helps answer some key questions for startup managers. Where do the current devy assets…...

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Inaccurate Auction Valuations Make It Possible for You to Draft a Super Team

This year I got roped into yet another league bringing the official total to … too many. This particular league is an auction draft which in my opinion is the all-time best format for analytics-driven fantasy managers to gain an edge. Rather than being forced into the confines of your draft position, you are free to define your own strategy. Planning In an auction draft,…...

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Running Back Draft Age Is Still Exploitable And It Provides an Earlier, Larger Edge Than You Might Think, The Wrong Read, No. 72

Blair Andrews revisits his research on running back draft age. Do younger RBs still provide an edge? Where does that edge come from? And which RBs should we be targeting in redraft and trading for in dynasty? We know, when looking for fantasy wide receiver prospects, younger is generally better. Does this hold for running back prospects? In the Wrong Read, No 30, I found…...

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Early-Round Tactics Are Crucial If You Want to Take Down the FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament

In his first look at the FFPC $100,000 best ball tournament, Shawn Siegele breaks down the early-round tactics that separate contenders and pretenders. We’ve written extensively on the FFPC Classic and Superflex options in best ball, helping you take down these contests with insights from the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer and the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer. Today we’ll jump into the FFPC $100,00 best…...

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4 Core Elements to More and Better Dynasty Trades, Plus Examples from RotoViz TriFlex Startups

Shawn Siegele discusses the importance of trading during dynasty startups and outlines concepts that will help you dominate leagues like the new RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty format from the FFPC. Blair Andrews and I recently participated in a dynasty startup in the awesome RotoViz TriFlex format. This new offering from the FFPC includes superflex, TE Premium, a greater emphasis on wide receivers, and more flex spots…...

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Chicago’s League-Winning Fantasy WR May Not Be the Most Obvious Option

As part of an ongoing Rookie Comparison Series, Sam Wallace takes a closer look at Darnell Mooney’s rookie season through the lens of The RotoViz Screener. Does the arrival of rookie quarterback Justin Fields signify a second-year breakout or is Mooney best left on your bench? An annual tradition in the fantasy football community consists of trying to identify the next breakout wide receiver. At…...

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Breaking Down a Loaded Best Ball Draft: The Most Provocative Picks from the Industry’s Top Minds

Shawn Siegele breaks down all 20 rounds of the 2021 MFL10 of Death and takes you behind the scenes with the Roster Construction Explorer. The MFL10 of Death VIII lived up to its name in 2021. Here’s an example: In normal leagues, 43 running backs and 50 wide receivers are going in the first 10 rounds. Our split was 36/56. That’s much more efficient drafting…...

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When Is the Best Time to Draft Your Best Ball Tournament Teams?

With the popularity of best ball tournaments on Underdog Best Ball Mania, DraftKings Millionaire and Play Action, FFPC Best Ball Tournament, and Drafters Best Ball Championship, game theory has overtaken the best ball world. Best Ball drafters are preoccupied with their favorite team stacks, game stacking opposing offenses in the fantasy playoffs, and taking on hyper- versus anti- fragile roster constructions. It’s important to consider…...

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Five Tight Ends to Target in the Late Rounds of Best Ball Drafts

When it comes to tight ends in fantasy football, the accepted wisdom is that you either take them early in drafts, or you take them late. In 2021, taking one early would likely mean spending a first-round pick on Travis Kelce, or landing George Kittle in the second. Or perhaps you really keep your powder dry and wait until round three to land Darren Waller…....

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Racing Father Time: 2 Aging Veterans Who Could Be The Missing Piece You Need For A Title Run In 2021

Sam Wallace identifies two veteran players to consider adding to your dynasty squads this offseason as you work towards a fantasy championship in 2021. Player values continuously fluctuate during the calendar year. Dynasty managers have become adept at determining the most optimal time to trade away, or trade for, players and future rookie picks. We all know when rookie fever sets in, and we’ve heard…...

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Three Round Mixed Devy and 2021 Rookie Draft: The Future of the NFL

What will the future of the NFL look like? Which young players will rise to stardom as the next generation of household NFL names? Will this year’s rookie class be full of studs, or duds? And what current college players are set to burst through this fall and hear their names called early on in the next few NFL Drafts? That’s exactly what we dive…...

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Heart vs. Head: 6 Second-Year Running Backs to Make or Break Your Best Ball Teams

Like product loyalists lining the outside of a store for the latest drop in technology, fantasy drafters flock to draft lobbies looking to acquire anything new and exciting. If it’s perceived as being “cool” or trendy, there’s a good chance they want it. Chances are, you want it too. Unfortunately, as is the case in both reality and fantasy, sometimes what we want isn’t what…...

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RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty and Why Trading Back Is a Win-Now Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 71

The goal in any dynasty league is, or at least should be, to put yourself in what Shawn Siegele has called the Permanent Championship Window (PCW). Proponents of the PCW look at the debate between win-now and win-later strategies and ask, “why not both?” Suppose you could win in Year 1 … and also in Year 2, Year 3, and beyond. If winning now and…...

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Pounding the Table: RotoViz’s Favorite Under the Radar Rookies

If the tales of various former scouts and front office executives are to be believed, every year during the NFL Draft there will come a time when an evaluator will vigorously champion the cause for a player he dearly wants the team to draft. Often these incidents occur late in the draft after the obvious blue chippers have all been taken. But the scouts, people…...

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Darren Waller Generated a 14% Win Rate in 2020 – He’s Now the Most Important Decision in Your Draft

Shawn Siegele explains why history says your best ball success in 2021 will come down to the decisions you make at tight end. I did select Darren Waller with the 2.06 in the MFL10 of Death, and I do like Waller as the TE2 this season. He’s one of the most unique physical talents in the NFL, and he’s coming off of two dynamic fantasy…...

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The Simple and Yet Extremely Unpopular Decision That Puts Your Best Ball Team on the Path to Victory

Shawn Siegele is a three-time MFL10 of Death champion. He helps you prepare to be lucky by sharing his favorite best ball roster hacks during this week’s event. This is one of the most fun weeks in the fantasy calendar for me as I get to compete against my favorite people. Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death VIII kicked off on Monday, and you can track…...

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Mind the Gap: Relative ADP at Running Back and the Psychology of Overconfidence

Everyone wants to draft Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. They’re probably the two best players in fantasy, and adding an elite running back to your squad in Round 1 gives you a massive leg up over your opponents. The reason those high-end RB1s are so valuable is that there are so few of them. Most teams use a committee nowadays, which makes sense from a…...

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Have Drafters Fixed a Key Mistake As They Attempt to Win the $100,000 FFPC Best Ball Tournament?

Shawn Siegele examines the behavior of drafters and explains why it gives us confidence in our 2021 draft plan. Zachary Kreuger and I are putting the final touches on our draft plan for the live Roster Locked FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament draft on Saturday. Yesterday, Zach looked at some of the schedule-based elements as we try to run the Week 14-17 gauntlet. In my…...

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Roster Locked Special Part 1: Exploit the Schedule to Win the FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament

Earlier this spring, Dave Caban and the powers that be at RotoViz were generous enough to give me a platform to host a weekly best ball live stream. For those that haven’t checked it out, you can tune into Roster Locked: A Best Ball Show, live on RotoViz’s YouTube channel. Shows generally air every Saturday (occasionally Friday) night around 7:00 PM EST or later. This…...

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Favorite or Underdog? Answering That Question Is Critical to Best Ball Success

Quarterbacks are being drafted earlier than ever, making it essential we do our homework at the position. In a study I did last June, I found that quarterbacks generally score more points when they are favored. Specifically, they perform best when they are slight favorites (3.5 to 6.5 points), followed by clear favorites (-7 or better), then in toss-ups (-3 to +3), as slight underdogs…...

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What Do Devy Drafts Look Like in Established Leagues? Breaking Down a 2-Round Experts Draft

Shawn Siegele breaks down the first two rounds of a devy draft in one of his most competitive expert leagues. A few weeks ago our college football and developmental dynasty guru, Travis May, put together a cool look at a three-round draft that was a mix of rookie and devy. It helps answer some key questions for startup managers. Where do the current devy assets…...

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Inaccurate Auction Valuations Make It Possible for You to Draft a Super Team

This year I got roped into yet another league bringing the official total to … too many. This particular league is an auction draft which in my opinion is the all-time best format for analytics-driven fantasy managers to gain an edge. Rather than being forced into the confines of your draft position, you are free to define your own strategy. Planning In an auction draft,…...

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Running Back Draft Age Is Still Exploitable And It Provides an Earlier, Larger Edge Than You Might Think, The Wrong Read, No. 72

Blair Andrews revisits his research on running back draft age. Do younger RBs still provide an edge? Where does that edge come from? And which RBs should we be targeting in redraft and trading for in dynasty? We know, when looking for fantasy wide receiver prospects, younger is generally better. Does this hold for running back prospects? In the Wrong Read, No 30, I found…...

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Early-Round Tactics Are Crucial If You Want to Take Down the FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament

In his first look at the FFPC $100,000 best ball tournament, Shawn Siegele breaks down the early-round tactics that separate contenders and pretenders. We’ve written extensively on the FFPC Classic and Superflex options in best ball, helping you take down these contests with insights from the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer and the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer. Today we’ll jump into the FFPC $100,00 best…...

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4 Core Elements to More and Better Dynasty Trades, Plus Examples from RotoViz TriFlex Startups

Shawn Siegele discusses the importance of trading during dynasty startups and outlines concepts that will help you dominate leagues like the new RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty format from the FFPC. Blair Andrews and I recently participated in a dynasty startup in the awesome RotoViz TriFlex format. This new offering from the FFPC includes superflex, TE Premium, a greater emphasis on wide receivers, and more flex spots…...

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Chicago’s League-Winning Fantasy WR May Not Be the Most Obvious Option

As part of an ongoing Rookie Comparison Series, Sam Wallace takes a closer look at Darnell Mooney’s rookie season through the lens of The RotoViz Screener. Does the arrival of rookie quarterback Justin Fields signify a second-year breakout or is Mooney best left on your bench? An annual tradition in the fantasy football community consists of trying to identify the next breakout wide receiver. At…...

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Breaking Down a Loaded Best Ball Draft: The Most Provocative Picks from the Industry’s Top Minds

Shawn Siegele breaks down all 20 rounds of the 2021 MFL10 of Death and takes you behind the scenes with the Roster Construction Explorer. The MFL10 of Death VIII lived up to its name in 2021. Here’s an example: In normal leagues, 43 running backs and 50 wide receivers are going in the first 10 rounds. Our split was 36/56. That’s much more efficient drafting…...

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When Is the Best Time to Draft Your Best Ball Tournament Teams?

With the popularity of best ball tournaments on Underdog Best Ball Mania, DraftKings Millionaire and Play Action, FFPC Best Ball Tournament, and Drafters Best Ball Championship, game theory has overtaken the best ball world. Best Ball drafters are preoccupied with their favorite team stacks, game stacking opposing offenses in the fantasy playoffs, and taking on hyper- versus anti- fragile roster constructions. It’s important to consider…...

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Five Tight Ends to Target in the Late Rounds of Best Ball Drafts

When it comes to tight ends in fantasy football, the accepted wisdom is that you either take them early in drafts, or you take them late. In 2021, taking one early would likely mean spending a first-round pick on Travis Kelce, or landing George Kittle in the second. Or perhaps you really keep your powder dry and wait until round three to land Darren Waller…....

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Racing Father Time: 2 Aging Veterans Who Could Be The Missing Piece You Need For A Title Run In 2021

Sam Wallace identifies two veteran players to consider adding to your dynasty squads this offseason as you work towards a fantasy championship in 2021. Player values continuously fluctuate during the calendar year. Dynasty managers have become adept at determining the most optimal time to trade away, or trade for, players and future rookie picks. We all know when rookie fever sets in, and we’ve heard…...

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Three Round Mixed Devy and 2021 Rookie Draft: The Future of the NFL

What will the future of the NFL look like? Which young players will rise to stardom as the next generation of household NFL names? Will this year’s rookie class be full of studs, or duds? And what current college players are set to burst through this fall and hear their names called early on in the next few NFL Drafts? That’s exactly what we dive…...

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Heart vs. Head: 6 Second-Year Running Backs to Make or Break Your Best Ball Teams

Like product loyalists lining the outside of a store for the latest drop in technology, fantasy drafters flock to draft lobbies looking to acquire anything new and exciting. If it’s perceived as being “cool” or trendy, there’s a good chance they want it. Chances are, you want it too. Unfortunately, as is the case in both reality and fantasy, sometimes what we want isn’t what…...

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RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty and Why Trading Back Is a Win-Now Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 71

The goal in any dynasty league is, or at least should be, to put yourself in what Shawn Siegele has called the Permanent Championship Window (PCW). Proponents of the PCW look at the debate between win-now and win-later strategies and ask, “why not both?” Suppose you could win in Year 1 … and also in Year 2, Year 3, and beyond. If winning now and…...

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Pounding the Table: RotoViz’s Favorite Under the Radar Rookies

If the tales of various former scouts and front office executives are to be believed, every year during the NFL Draft there will come a time when an evaluator will vigorously champion the cause for a player he dearly wants the team to draft. Often these incidents occur late in the draft after the obvious blue chippers have all been taken. But the scouts, people…...

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Darren Waller Generated a 14% Win Rate in 2020 – He’s Now the Most Important Decision in Your Draft

Shawn Siegele explains why history says your best ball success in 2021 will come down to the decisions you make at tight end. I did select Darren Waller with the 2.06 in the MFL10 of Death, and I do like Waller as the TE2 this season. He’s one of the most unique physical talents in the NFL, and he’s coming off of two dynamic fantasy…...

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The Simple and Yet Extremely Unpopular Decision That Puts Your Best Ball Team on the Path to Victory

Shawn Siegele is a three-time MFL10 of Death champion. He helps you prepare to be lucky by sharing his favorite best ball roster hacks during this week’s event. This is one of the most fun weeks in the fantasy calendar for me as I get to compete against my favorite people. Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death VIII kicked off on Monday, and you can track…...

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Mind the Gap: Relative ADP at Running Back and the Psychology of Overconfidence

Everyone wants to draft Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. They’re probably the two best players in fantasy, and adding an elite running back to your squad in Round 1 gives you a massive leg up over your opponents. The reason those high-end RB1s are so valuable is that there are so few of them. Most teams use a committee nowadays, which makes sense from a…...

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