Matt Spencer

Machine Learning Approach to Football Analytics with JavaScript

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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Inaccurate Auction Valuations Make It Possible for You to Draft a Super Team

This year I got roped into yet another league bringing the official total to … too many. This particular league is an auction draft which in my opinion is the all-time best format for analytics-driven fantasy managers to gain an edge. Rather than being forced into the confines of your draft position, you are free to define your own strategy. Planning In an auction draft,…...

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Running Back Draft Age Is Still Exploitable And It Provides an Earlier, Larger Edge Than You Might Think, The Wrong Read, No. 72

Blair Andrews revisits his research on running back draft age. Do younger RBs still provide an edge? Where does that edge come from? And which RBs should we be targeting in redraft and trading for in dynasty? We know, when looking for fantasy wide receiver prospects, younger is generally better. Does this hold for running back prospects? In the Wrong Read, No 30, I found…...

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Early-Round Tactics Are Crucial If You Want to Take Down the FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament

In his first look at the FFPC $100,000 best ball tournament, Shawn Siegele breaks down the early-round tactics that separate contenders and pretenders. We’ve written extensively on the FFPC Classic and Superflex options in best ball, helping you take down these contests with insights from the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer and the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer. Today we’ll jump into the FFPC $100,00 best…...

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4 Core Elements to More and Better Dynasty Trades, Plus Examples from RotoViz TriFlex Startups

Shawn Siegele discusses the importance of trading during dynasty startups and outlines concepts that will help you dominate leagues like the new RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty format from the FFPC. Blair Andrews and I recently participated in a dynasty startup in the awesome RotoViz TriFlex format. This new offering from the FFPC includes superflex, TE Premium, a greater emphasis on wide receivers, and more flex spots…...

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Chicago’s League-Winning Fantasy WR May Not Be the Most Obvious Option

As part of an ongoing Rookie Comparison Series, Sam Wallace takes a closer look at Darnell Mooney’s rookie season through the lens of The RotoViz Screener. Does the arrival of rookie quarterback Justin Fields signify a second-year breakout or is Mooney best left on your bench? An annual tradition in the fantasy football community consists of trying to identify the next breakout wide receiver. At…...

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Breaking Down a Loaded Best Ball Draft: The Most Provocative Picks from the Industry’s Top Minds

Shawn Siegele breaks down all 20 rounds of the 2021 MFL10 of Death and takes you behind the scenes with the Roster Construction Explorer. The MFL10 of Death VIII lived up to its name in 2021. Here’s an example: In normal leagues, 43 running backs and 50 wide receivers are going in the first 10 rounds. Our split was 36/56. That’s much more efficient drafting…...

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When Is the Best Time to Draft Your Best Ball Tournament Teams?

With the popularity of best ball tournaments on Underdog Best Ball Mania, DraftKings Millionaire and Play Action, FFPC Best Ball Tournament, and Drafters Best Ball Championship, game theory has overtaken the best ball world. Best Ball drafters are preoccupied with their favorite team stacks, game stacking opposing offenses in the fantasy playoffs, and taking on hyper- versus anti- fragile roster constructions. It’s important to consider…...

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Five Tight Ends to Target in the Late Rounds of Best Ball Drafts

When it comes to tight ends in fantasy football, the accepted wisdom is that you either take them early in drafts, or you take them late. In 2021, taking one early would likely mean spending a first-round pick on Travis Kelce, or landing George Kittle in the second. Or perhaps you really keep your powder dry and wait until round three to land Darren Waller…....

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Racing Father Time: 2 Aging Veterans Who Could Be The Missing Piece You Need For A Title Run In 2021

Sam Wallace identifies two veteran players to consider adding to your dynasty squads this offseason as you work towards a fantasy championship in 2021. Player values continuously fluctuate during the calendar year. Dynasty managers have become adept at determining the most optimal time to trade away, or trade for, players and future rookie picks. We all know when rookie fever sets in, and we’ve heard…...

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Three Round Mixed Devy and 2021 Rookie Draft: The Future of the NFL

What will the future of the NFL look like? Which young players will rise to stardom as the next generation of household NFL names? Will this year’s rookie class be full of studs, or duds? And what current college players are set to burst through this fall and hear their names called early on in the next few NFL Drafts? That’s exactly what we dive…...

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Heart vs. Head: 6 Second-Year Running Backs to Make or Break Your Best Ball Teams

Like product loyalists lining the outside of a store for the latest drop in technology, fantasy drafters flock to draft lobbies looking to acquire anything new and exciting. If it’s perceived as being “cool” or trendy, there’s a good chance they want it. Chances are, you want it too. Unfortunately, as is the case in both reality and fantasy, sometimes what we want isn’t what…...

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RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty and Why Trading Back Is a Win-Now Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 71

The goal in any dynasty league is, or at least should be, to put yourself in what Shawn Siegele has called the Permanent Championship Window (PCW). Proponents of the PCW look at the debate between win-now and win-later strategies and ask, “why not both?” Suppose you could win in Year 1 … and also in Year 2, Year 3, and beyond. If winning now and…...

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Pounding the Table: RotoViz’s Favorite Under the Radar Rookies

If the tales of various former scouts and front office executives are to be believed, every year during the NFL Draft there will come a time when an evaluator will vigorously champion the cause for a player he dearly wants the team to draft. Often these incidents occur late in the draft after the obvious blue chippers have all been taken. But the scouts, people…...

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Darren Waller Generated a 14% Win Rate in 2020 – He’s Now the Most Important Decision in Your Draft

Shawn Siegele explains why history says your best ball success in 2021 will come down to the decisions you make at tight end. I did select Darren Waller with the 2.06 in the MFL10 of Death, and I do like Waller as the TE2 this season. He’s one of the most unique physical talents in the NFL, and he’s coming off of two dynamic fantasy…...

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The Simple and Yet Extremely Unpopular Decision That Puts Your Best Ball Team on the Path to Victory

Shawn Siegele is a three-time MFL10 of Death champion. He helps you prepare to be lucky by sharing his favorite best ball roster hacks during this week’s event. This is one of the most fun weeks in the fantasy calendar for me as I get to compete against my favorite people. Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death VIII kicked off on Monday, and you can track…...

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Mind the Gap: Relative ADP at Running Back and the Psychology of Overconfidence

Everyone wants to draft Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. They’re probably the two best players in fantasy, and adding an elite running back to your squad in Round 1 gives you a massive leg up over your opponents. The reason those high-end RB1s are so valuable is that there are so few of them. Most teams use a committee nowadays, which makes sense from a…...

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Justin Herbert’s Rookie Season Was One for the Record Books, But Could His Sophomore Season Be Even Better?

As part of an ongoing Rookie Comparison Series, Sam Wallace takes a closer look at Justin Herbert’s rookie season through the lens of The RotoViz Screener. How does Herbert’s future outlook compare to his historical comps? Is he primed to establish himself as one of the premier fantasy producers at the quarterback position? Record-setting seasons, especially by rookies, are tough to evaluate through a dynasty…...

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Best Ball: Why WR Depth Functions Differently for Zero RB and Robust RB … and Not the Way You’d Think

Want to join our writers in winning big contests and turning your best ball entries into a money-making machine? Shawn Siegele helps explain how to generate win rates more than double the average in this edition of the Best Ball Workshop. This week I got a chance to talk to one of my favorite structural drafters – and one of my favorite fantasy writers overall…...

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ADP Moves to Buy Now: These 3 Post-Draft Fallers Will Soon Rebound Above Their Original Prices

The NFL Draft is firmly behind us, and the vast expanse of rookie and dynasty startup drafts lies ahead. To be sure, it’s an exciting time. The offseason period between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft is quite the journey, but now we have landing spots for each of the incoming rookies, and prospective depth charts are starting to take shape. If you did…...

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Round Out Your Rookie Sleeper Portfolio With Dead Ringers for Phillip Lindsay and Myles Gaskin

Shawn Siegele looks at a couple of inexpensive rookie running backs to stockpile in dynasty leagues and consider in deep best ball formats. Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve focused on evidence-based methods for crushing your rookie drafts and creating the permanent championship window. The PCW is the foundation of our Dynasty Workshop series, and it’s not based on any single tactic. Rather, it’s…...

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Inaccurate Auction Valuations Make It Possible for You to Draft a Super Team

This year I got roped into yet another league bringing the official total to … too many. This particular league is an auction draft which in my opinion is the all-time best format for analytics-driven fantasy managers to gain an edge. Rather than being forced into the confines of your draft position, you are free to define your own strategy. Planning In an auction draft,…...

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Running Back Draft Age Is Still Exploitable And It Provides an Earlier, Larger Edge Than You Might Think, The Wrong Read, No. 72

Blair Andrews revisits his research on running back draft age. Do younger RBs still provide an edge? Where does that edge come from? And which RBs should we be targeting in redraft and trading for in dynasty? We know, when looking for fantasy wide receiver prospects, younger is generally better. Does this hold for running back prospects? In the Wrong Read, No 30, I found…...

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Early-Round Tactics Are Crucial If You Want to Take Down the FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament

In his first look at the FFPC $100,000 best ball tournament, Shawn Siegele breaks down the early-round tactics that separate contenders and pretenders. We’ve written extensively on the FFPC Classic and Superflex options in best ball, helping you take down these contests with insights from the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer and the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer. Today we’ll jump into the FFPC $100,00 best…...

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4 Core Elements to More and Better Dynasty Trades, Plus Examples from RotoViz TriFlex Startups

Shawn Siegele discusses the importance of trading during dynasty startups and outlines concepts that will help you dominate leagues like the new RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty format from the FFPC. Blair Andrews and I recently participated in a dynasty startup in the awesome RotoViz TriFlex format. This new offering from the FFPC includes superflex, TE Premium, a greater emphasis on wide receivers, and more flex spots…...

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Chicago’s League-Winning Fantasy WR May Not Be the Most Obvious Option

As part of an ongoing Rookie Comparison Series, Sam Wallace takes a closer look at Darnell Mooney’s rookie season through the lens of The RotoViz Screener. Does the arrival of rookie quarterback Justin Fields signify a second-year breakout or is Mooney best left on your bench? An annual tradition in the fantasy football community consists of trying to identify the next breakout wide receiver. At…...

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Breaking Down a Loaded Best Ball Draft: The Most Provocative Picks from the Industry’s Top Minds

Shawn Siegele breaks down all 20 rounds of the 2021 MFL10 of Death and takes you behind the scenes with the Roster Construction Explorer. The MFL10 of Death VIII lived up to its name in 2021. Here’s an example: In normal leagues, 43 running backs and 50 wide receivers are going in the first 10 rounds. Our split was 36/56. That’s much more efficient drafting…...

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When Is the Best Time to Draft Your Best Ball Tournament Teams?

With the popularity of best ball tournaments on Underdog Best Ball Mania, DraftKings Millionaire and Play Action, FFPC Best Ball Tournament, and Drafters Best Ball Championship, game theory has overtaken the best ball world. Best Ball drafters are preoccupied with their favorite team stacks, game stacking opposing offenses in the fantasy playoffs, and taking on hyper- versus anti- fragile roster constructions. It’s important to consider…...

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Five Tight Ends to Target in the Late Rounds of Best Ball Drafts

When it comes to tight ends in fantasy football, the accepted wisdom is that you either take them early in drafts, or you take them late. In 2021, taking one early would likely mean spending a first-round pick on Travis Kelce, or landing George Kittle in the second. Or perhaps you really keep your powder dry and wait until round three to land Darren Waller…....

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Racing Father Time: 2 Aging Veterans Who Could Be The Missing Piece You Need For A Title Run In 2021

Sam Wallace identifies two veteran players to consider adding to your dynasty squads this offseason as you work towards a fantasy championship in 2021. Player values continuously fluctuate during the calendar year. Dynasty managers have become adept at determining the most optimal time to trade away, or trade for, players and future rookie picks. We all know when rookie fever sets in, and we’ve heard…...

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Three Round Mixed Devy and 2021 Rookie Draft: The Future of the NFL

What will the future of the NFL look like? Which young players will rise to stardom as the next generation of household NFL names? Will this year’s rookie class be full of studs, or duds? And what current college players are set to burst through this fall and hear their names called early on in the next few NFL Drafts? That’s exactly what we dive…...

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Heart vs. Head: 6 Second-Year Running Backs to Make or Break Your Best Ball Teams

Like product loyalists lining the outside of a store for the latest drop in technology, fantasy drafters flock to draft lobbies looking to acquire anything new and exciting. If it’s perceived as being “cool” or trendy, there’s a good chance they want it. Chances are, you want it too. Unfortunately, as is the case in both reality and fantasy, sometimes what we want isn’t what…...

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RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty and Why Trading Back Is a Win-Now Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 71

The goal in any dynasty league is, or at least should be, to put yourself in what Shawn Siegele has called the Permanent Championship Window (PCW). Proponents of the PCW look at the debate between win-now and win-later strategies and ask, “why not both?” Suppose you could win in Year 1 … and also in Year 2, Year 3, and beyond. If winning now and…...

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Pounding the Table: RotoViz’s Favorite Under the Radar Rookies

If the tales of various former scouts and front office executives are to be believed, every year during the NFL Draft there will come a time when an evaluator will vigorously champion the cause for a player he dearly wants the team to draft. Often these incidents occur late in the draft after the obvious blue chippers have all been taken. But the scouts, people…...

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Darren Waller Generated a 14% Win Rate in 2020 – He’s Now the Most Important Decision in Your Draft

Shawn Siegele explains why history says your best ball success in 2021 will come down to the decisions you make at tight end. I did select Darren Waller with the 2.06 in the MFL10 of Death, and I do like Waller as the TE2 this season. He’s one of the most unique physical talents in the NFL, and he’s coming off of two dynamic fantasy…...

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The Simple and Yet Extremely Unpopular Decision That Puts Your Best Ball Team on the Path to Victory

Shawn Siegele is a three-time MFL10 of Death champion. He helps you prepare to be lucky by sharing his favorite best ball roster hacks during this week’s event. This is one of the most fun weeks in the fantasy calendar for me as I get to compete against my favorite people. Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death VIII kicked off on Monday, and you can track…...

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Mind the Gap: Relative ADP at Running Back and the Psychology of Overconfidence

Everyone wants to draft Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. They’re probably the two best players in fantasy, and adding an elite running back to your squad in Round 1 gives you a massive leg up over your opponents. The reason those high-end RB1s are so valuable is that there are so few of them. Most teams use a committee nowadays, which makes sense from a…...

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Justin Herbert’s Rookie Season Was One for the Record Books, But Could His Sophomore Season Be Even Better?

As part of an ongoing Rookie Comparison Series, Sam Wallace takes a closer look at Justin Herbert’s rookie season through the lens of The RotoViz Screener. How does Herbert’s future outlook compare to his historical comps? Is he primed to establish himself as one of the premier fantasy producers at the quarterback position? Record-setting seasons, especially by rookies, are tough to evaluate through a dynasty…...

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Best Ball: Why WR Depth Functions Differently for Zero RB and Robust RB … and Not the Way You’d Think

Want to join our writers in winning big contests and turning your best ball entries into a money-making machine? Shawn Siegele helps explain how to generate win rates more than double the average in this edition of the Best Ball Workshop. This week I got a chance to talk to one of my favorite structural drafters – and one of my favorite fantasy writers overall…...

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ADP Moves to Buy Now: These 3 Post-Draft Fallers Will Soon Rebound Above Their Original Prices

The NFL Draft is firmly behind us, and the vast expanse of rookie and dynasty startup drafts lies ahead. To be sure, it’s an exciting time. The offseason period between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft is quite the journey, but now we have landing spots for each of the incoming rookies, and prospective depth charts are starting to take shape. If you did…...

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Round Out Your Rookie Sleeper Portfolio With Dead Ringers for Phillip Lindsay and Myles Gaskin

Shawn Siegele looks at a couple of inexpensive rookie running backs to stockpile in dynasty leagues and consider in deep best ball formats. Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve focused on evidence-based methods for crushing your rookie drafts and creating the permanent championship window. The PCW is the foundation of our Dynasty Workshop series, and it’s not based on any single tactic. Rather, it’s…...

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Inaccurate Auction Valuations Make It Possible for You to Draft a Super Team

This year I got roped into yet another league bringing the official total to … too many. This particular league is an auction draft which in my opinion is the all-time best format for analytics-driven fantasy managers to gain an edge. Rather than being forced into the confines of your draft position, you are free to define your own strategy. Planning In an auction draft,…...

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Running Back Draft Age Is Still Exploitable And It Provides an Earlier, Larger Edge Than You Might Think, The Wrong Read, No. 72

Blair Andrews revisits his research on running back draft age. Do younger RBs still provide an edge? Where does that edge come from? And which RBs should we be targeting in redraft and trading for in dynasty? We know, when looking for fantasy wide receiver prospects, younger is generally better. Does this hold for running back prospects? In the Wrong Read, No 30, I found…...

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Early-Round Tactics Are Crucial If You Want to Take Down the FFPC $100,000 Best Ball Tournament

In his first look at the FFPC $100,000 best ball tournament, Shawn Siegele breaks down the early-round tactics that separate contenders and pretenders. We’ve written extensively on the FFPC Classic and Superflex options in best ball, helping you take down these contests with insights from the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer and the FFPC Roster Construction Explorer. Today we’ll jump into the FFPC $100,00 best…...

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4 Core Elements to More and Better Dynasty Trades, Plus Examples from RotoViz TriFlex Startups

Shawn Siegele discusses the importance of trading during dynasty startups and outlines concepts that will help you dominate leagues like the new RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty format from the FFPC. Blair Andrews and I recently participated in a dynasty startup in the awesome RotoViz TriFlex format. This new offering from the FFPC includes superflex, TE Premium, a greater emphasis on wide receivers, and more flex spots…...

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Chicago’s League-Winning Fantasy WR May Not Be the Most Obvious Option

As part of an ongoing Rookie Comparison Series, Sam Wallace takes a closer look at Darnell Mooney’s rookie season through the lens of The RotoViz Screener. Does the arrival of rookie quarterback Justin Fields signify a second-year breakout or is Mooney best left on your bench? An annual tradition in the fantasy football community consists of trying to identify the next breakout wide receiver. At…...

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Breaking Down a Loaded Best Ball Draft: The Most Provocative Picks from the Industry’s Top Minds

Shawn Siegele breaks down all 20 rounds of the 2021 MFL10 of Death and takes you behind the scenes with the Roster Construction Explorer. The MFL10 of Death VIII lived up to its name in 2021. Here’s an example: In normal leagues, 43 running backs and 50 wide receivers are going in the first 10 rounds. Our split was 36/56. That’s much more efficient drafting…...

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When Is the Best Time to Draft Your Best Ball Tournament Teams?

With the popularity of best ball tournaments on Underdog Best Ball Mania, DraftKings Millionaire and Play Action, FFPC Best Ball Tournament, and Drafters Best Ball Championship, game theory has overtaken the best ball world. Best Ball drafters are preoccupied with their favorite team stacks, game stacking opposing offenses in the fantasy playoffs, and taking on hyper- versus anti- fragile roster constructions. It’s important to consider…...

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Five Tight Ends to Target in the Late Rounds of Best Ball Drafts

When it comes to tight ends in fantasy football, the accepted wisdom is that you either take them early in drafts, or you take them late. In 2021, taking one early would likely mean spending a first-round pick on Travis Kelce, or landing George Kittle in the second. Or perhaps you really keep your powder dry and wait until round three to land Darren Waller…....

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Racing Father Time: 2 Aging Veterans Who Could Be The Missing Piece You Need For A Title Run In 2021

Sam Wallace identifies two veteran players to consider adding to your dynasty squads this offseason as you work towards a fantasy championship in 2021. Player values continuously fluctuate during the calendar year. Dynasty managers have become adept at determining the most optimal time to trade away, or trade for, players and future rookie picks. We all know when rookie fever sets in, and we’ve heard…...

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Three Round Mixed Devy and 2021 Rookie Draft: The Future of the NFL

What will the future of the NFL look like? Which young players will rise to stardom as the next generation of household NFL names? Will this year’s rookie class be full of studs, or duds? And what current college players are set to burst through this fall and hear their names called early on in the next few NFL Drafts? That’s exactly what we dive…...

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Heart vs. Head: 6 Second-Year Running Backs to Make or Break Your Best Ball Teams

Like product loyalists lining the outside of a store for the latest drop in technology, fantasy drafters flock to draft lobbies looking to acquire anything new and exciting. If it’s perceived as being “cool” or trendy, there’s a good chance they want it. Chances are, you want it too. Unfortunately, as is the case in both reality and fantasy, sometimes what we want isn’t what…...

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RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty and Why Trading Back Is a Win-Now Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 71

The goal in any dynasty league is, or at least should be, to put yourself in what Shawn Siegele has called the Permanent Championship Window (PCW). Proponents of the PCW look at the debate between win-now and win-later strategies and ask, “why not both?” Suppose you could win in Year 1 … and also in Year 2, Year 3, and beyond. If winning now and…...

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Pounding the Table: RotoViz’s Favorite Under the Radar Rookies

If the tales of various former scouts and front office executives are to be believed, every year during the NFL Draft there will come a time when an evaluator will vigorously champion the cause for a player he dearly wants the team to draft. Often these incidents occur late in the draft after the obvious blue chippers have all been taken. But the scouts, people…...

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Darren Waller Generated a 14% Win Rate in 2020 – He’s Now the Most Important Decision in Your Draft

Shawn Siegele explains why history says your best ball success in 2021 will come down to the decisions you make at tight end. I did select Darren Waller with the 2.06 in the MFL10 of Death, and I do like Waller as the TE2 this season. He’s one of the most unique physical talents in the NFL, and he’s coming off of two dynamic fantasy…...

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The Simple and Yet Extremely Unpopular Decision That Puts Your Best Ball Team on the Path to Victory

Shawn Siegele is a three-time MFL10 of Death champion. He helps you prepare to be lucky by sharing his favorite best ball roster hacks during this week’s event. This is one of the most fun weeks in the fantasy calendar for me as I get to compete against my favorite people. Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death VIII kicked off on Monday, and you can track…...

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Mind the Gap: Relative ADP at Running Back and the Psychology of Overconfidence

Everyone wants to draft Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. They’re probably the two best players in fantasy, and adding an elite running back to your squad in Round 1 gives you a massive leg up over your opponents. The reason those high-end RB1s are so valuable is that there are so few of them. Most teams use a committee nowadays, which makes sense from a…...

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Justin Herbert’s Rookie Season Was One for the Record Books, But Could His Sophomore Season Be Even Better?

As part of an ongoing Rookie Comparison Series, Sam Wallace takes a closer look at Justin Herbert’s rookie season through the lens of The RotoViz Screener. How does Herbert’s future outlook compare to his historical comps? Is he primed to establish himself as one of the premier fantasy producers at the quarterback position? Record-setting seasons, especially by rookies, are tough to evaluate through a dynasty…...

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Best Ball: Why WR Depth Functions Differently for Zero RB and Robust RB … and Not the Way You’d Think

Want to join our writers in winning big contests and turning your best ball entries into a money-making machine? Shawn Siegele helps explain how to generate win rates more than double the average in this edition of the Best Ball Workshop. This week I got a chance to talk to one of my favorite structural drafters – and one of my favorite fantasy writers overall…...

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ADP Moves to Buy Now: These 3 Post-Draft Fallers Will Soon Rebound Above Their Original Prices

The NFL Draft is firmly behind us, and the vast expanse of rookie and dynasty startup drafts lies ahead. To be sure, it’s an exciting time. The offseason period between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft is quite the journey, but now we have landing spots for each of the incoming rookies, and prospective depth charts are starting to take shape. If you did…...

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Round Out Your Rookie Sleeper Portfolio With Dead Ringers for Phillip Lindsay and Myles Gaskin

Shawn Siegele looks at a couple of inexpensive rookie running backs to stockpile in dynasty leagues and consider in deep best ball formats. Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve focused on evidence-based methods for crushing your rookie drafts and creating the permanent championship window. The PCW is the foundation of our Dynasty Workshop series, and it’s not based on any single tactic. Rather, it’s…...

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