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Matt Spencer
Machine Learning Approach to Football Analytics with JavaScript
Author Archive
In-Season Articles
In-Season Articles
DFS Insights for the Week 5 Slate with K-Means Cluster Analysis
Matt Spencer
October 7, 2023
Welcome back to the series! In the previous installment, we dissected the strategies for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season using k-means clustering. If you missed it, you could catch up here. This week we made major upgrades to the analysis. Methodology (In-Brief) Aggregated projections from six sources for the first five weeks Collected the actual results of the first four weeks. Collected information…...
DFS Insights for the Week 4 Slate with K-Means Cluster Analysis
Matt Spencer
September 28, 2023
Welcome back to the series! In the previous installment, we dissected the strategies that worked for Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season retroactively using k-means clustering. If you missed it, you can catch up on our initial entry here. Now, armed with insights from the first three weeks, we’re ready to tackle Week 4 and recommend a robust player pool for DFS success. Methodology…...
Unpacking Week 2: K-Means Clustering for DFS Insights
Matt Spencer
September 19, 2023
In this article we’ll explore the power of k-means clustering analysis to figure out how we could have taken down the slate the most effectively. By isolating the projected Vegas spread, game total, matchup, projected points, salary, risk, and reward, we should be able to uncover some insights to help us in the coming weeks. Week 2 of the NFL season brought us a plethora…...
Are NFL Running Backs Underpaid? Unraveling True Value at a Controversial Position
Matt Spencer
July 20, 2023
Fantasy football discussions are often marred by misinformation and skewed comparisons. A recent viral tweet comparing the average salaries of NFL kickers to those of running backs is a prime example. Can someone please explain this? pic.twitter.com/e9XgywpOF9 — Dez Bryant (@DezBryant) July 18, 2023 This tweet exploded as part of the current discourse over a potential NFL running back holdout. It was shared by seemingly…...
Should You Handcuff Your Running Backs? Backfield Stacks and Their Effects on Win Rates
Matt Spencer
August 31, 2021
Matt Spencer uses the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer to determine whether handcuffing your RBs is a good strategy. Does it improve your floor or ceiling outcomes? Or is it simply a wasted roster spot? Football is still a week away and we’ve already lost J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, and Travis Etienne Jr., along with another 33 running backs listed on the injury report. If…...
Crush Your Home League with These Simulations and a Simple Pick Prediction Tool
Matt Spencer
August 30, 2021
I don’t care if you are in 100 expert leagues, the one you want to absolutely crush is still that first “home” league you joined with your local friends and family. No one wants to come into the office after a close loss to your raucous coworker. Which type of draft do you care about more? — Troy King ⚔️?? (@TKingMode) August 22, 2021 If…...
Simulating Optimal Roster Construction With The Scott Fish Bowl
Matt Spencer
June 30, 2021
Last week I went through the process of transforming your projections to include expected first downs. Now that Dave Caban dropped the official RotoViz projections, we can explore the snake draft simulation tool I created. I was lucky enough to be invited to participate in the Scott Fish Bowl Tournament again this year. One of Scott’s goals with this format is to create a really balanced…...
Estimating Expected First Downs for the Scott Fish Bowl
Matt Spencer
June 21, 2021
I was lucky enough to be invited to participate in the Scott Fish Bowl Tournament again this year. If you are not familiar, it is a massive charity tournament run by the great Scott Fish to raise money for charity. Among its various eccentricities, the unique scoring is always my favorite part of the tournament. This year it is effectively a half-PPR format with additional points…...
Inaccurate Auction Valuations Make It Possible for You to Draft a Super Team
Matt Spencer
June 11, 2021
This year I got roped into yet another league bringing the official total to … too many. This particular league is an auction draft which in my opinion is the all-time best format for analytics-driven fantasy managers to gain an edge. Rather than being forced into the confines of your draft position, you are free to define your own strategy. Planning In an auction draft,…...
Matt Spencer’s Machine Learning WR Prospect Model – Priority Targets, Value Picks, and Land Mines to Avoid
Matt Spencer
May 10, 2021
Editor’s Note: I’ve been extremely excited for the release of Matt’s machine-learning WR model, so I have to brag on him for a few moments before we get into the article. Matt’s model includes eight composite metrics. Age-adjusted production: This incorporates a lot of our signature RotoViz research, including Breakout Age, which Matt recently updated and improved, as well as whether prospects hit a 30%…...
The 2021 WR Class Is Loaded With Breakout Age Stars – 4 Rank in the Top 25 This Century
Matt Spencer
April 28, 2021
Earlier this offseason, Matt Spencer improved the WR breakout age metric and made it even more helpful in locating NFL stars. Part 1 is included in this article in order to help readers understand what BOA means and how it’s calculated. If you’re already familiar with Matt’s work, jump down to Part 2 where he presents the top-25 historical results and the breakout ages for…...
Pro Day Times and How You Can Gain an Edge by Doing Nothing At All
Matt Spencer
April 1, 2021
The year is 2021 and we are still having the same debate that’s been going on for over 10 years. It is particularly poignant this year with the cancellation of the NFL combine due to COVID-19. Why are pro day forty times faster than combine forty times and should we be adjusting them to get an apples-to-apples comparison with official combine laser timing? With no…...
Finding Touchdowns With The New Running Back Freak Score
Matt Spencer
March 22, 2021
Freak Score is our home-grown size-adjusted speed metric that uses height, weight, and speed to project the TD-scoring potential for NFL prospects. Unlike many other measures for an NFL prospect’s size/athleticism profile, the Freak Score incorporates player height. Since its inception 6 years ago the NFL has seen a great many changing trends, but the Freak Score has remained a top predictor. I recently went…...
How to Dominate March Madness Bracket Challenges and Improve Your Play in NFL DFS Tournaments
Matt Spencer
March 19, 2021
One of the biggest struggles when you get into DFS is learning how to think, specifically when creating lineups for your large tournaments or grand prize pools (GPP). You have to learn how to fill out a viable starting lineup of players that you feel have the potential to return value above and beyond their lineup cost, but at the same time you have must…...
6 Years In And Freak Score Is Still Finding You Touchdowns
Matt Spencer
March 12, 2021
Freak Score is our home grown size adjusted speed metric that uses height, weight, and speed to project the TD-scoring potential for NFL prospects. Unlike many other measures for an NFL prospect’s size/athleticism profile, the Freak Score incorporates player height. Since its inception 6 years ago the NFL has seen a great many changing trends, but the Freak Score has remained a top predictor. The Freak…...
Improvements to Breakout Age Make It Even More Effective in Locating Wide Receiver Gems
Matt Spencer
March 3, 2021
It’s rookie season again in the NFL analytics community and the fights are already starting at the wide receiver position. Be prepared to stumble into many arguments over how Jaylen Waddle failed to breakout or how it took Devonta Smith until his fourth and senior season to achieve his breakout all while we are forced to use Ja’Marr Chase’s age-adjusted production from 2019 due to…...
DFS Insights for the Week 5 Slate with K-Means Cluster Analysis
Matt Spencer
October 7, 2023
Welcome back to the series! In the previous installment, we dissected the strategies for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season using k-means clustering. If you missed it, you could catch up here. This week we made major upgrades to the analysis. Methodology (In-Brief) Aggregated projections from six sources for the first five weeks Collected the actual results of the first four weeks. Collected information…...
DFS Insights for the Week 4 Slate with K-Means Cluster Analysis
Matt Spencer
September 28, 2023
Welcome back to the series! In the previous installment, we dissected the strategies that worked for Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season retroactively using k-means clustering. If you missed it, you can catch up on our initial entry here. Now, armed with insights from the first three weeks, we’re ready to tackle Week 4 and recommend a robust player pool for DFS success. Methodology…...
Unpacking Week 2: K-Means Clustering for DFS Insights
Matt Spencer
September 19, 2023
In this article we’ll explore the power of k-means clustering analysis to figure out how we could have taken down the slate the most effectively. By isolating the projected Vegas spread, game total, matchup, projected points, salary, risk, and reward, we should be able to uncover some insights to help us in the coming weeks. Week 2 of the NFL season brought us a plethora…...
Are NFL Running Backs Underpaid? Unraveling True Value at a Controversial Position
Matt Spencer
July 20, 2023
Fantasy football discussions are often marred by misinformation and skewed comparisons. A recent viral tweet comparing the average salaries of NFL kickers to those of running backs is a prime example. Can someone please explain this? pic.twitter.com/e9XgywpOF9 — Dez Bryant (@DezBryant) July 18, 2023 This tweet exploded as part of the current discourse over a potential NFL running back holdout. It was shared by seemingly…...
Should You Handcuff Your Running Backs? Backfield Stacks and Their Effects on Win Rates
Matt Spencer
August 31, 2021
Matt Spencer uses the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer to determine whether handcuffing your RBs is a good strategy. Does it improve your floor or ceiling outcomes? Or is it simply a wasted roster spot? Football is still a week away and we’ve already lost J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, and Travis Etienne Jr., along with another 33 running backs listed on the injury report. If…...
Crush Your Home League with These Simulations and a Simple Pick Prediction Tool
Matt Spencer
August 30, 2021
I don’t care if you are in 100 expert leagues, the one you want to absolutely crush is still that first “home” league you joined with your local friends and family. No one wants to come into the office after a close loss to your raucous coworker. Which type of draft do you care about more? — Troy King ⚔️?? (@TKingMode) August 22, 2021 If…...
Simulating Optimal Roster Construction With The Scott Fish Bowl
Matt Spencer
June 30, 2021
Last week I went through the process of transforming your projections to include expected first downs. Now that Dave Caban dropped the official RotoViz projections, we can explore the snake draft simulation tool I created. I was lucky enough to be invited to participate in the Scott Fish Bowl Tournament again this year. One of Scott’s goals with this format is to create a really balanced…...
Estimating Expected First Downs for the Scott Fish Bowl
Matt Spencer
June 21, 2021
I was lucky enough to be invited to participate in the Scott Fish Bowl Tournament again this year. If you are not familiar, it is a massive charity tournament run by the great Scott Fish to raise money for charity. Among its various eccentricities, the unique scoring is always my favorite part of the tournament. This year it is effectively a half-PPR format with additional points…...
Inaccurate Auction Valuations Make It Possible for You to Draft a Super Team
Matt Spencer
June 11, 2021
This year I got roped into yet another league bringing the official total to … too many. This particular league is an auction draft which in my opinion is the all-time best format for analytics-driven fantasy managers to gain an edge. Rather than being forced into the confines of your draft position, you are free to define your own strategy. Planning In an auction draft,…...
Matt Spencer’s Machine Learning WR Prospect Model – Priority Targets, Value Picks, and Land Mines to Avoid
Matt Spencer
May 10, 2021
Editor’s Note: I’ve been extremely excited for the release of Matt’s machine-learning WR model, so I have to brag on him for a few moments before we get into the article. Matt’s model includes eight composite metrics. Age-adjusted production: This incorporates a lot of our signature RotoViz research, including Breakout Age, which Matt recently updated and improved, as well as whether prospects hit a 30%…...
The 2021 WR Class Is Loaded With Breakout Age Stars – 4 Rank in the Top 25 This Century
Matt Spencer
April 28, 2021
Earlier this offseason, Matt Spencer improved the WR breakout age metric and made it even more helpful in locating NFL stars. Part 1 is included in this article in order to help readers understand what BOA means and how it’s calculated. If you’re already familiar with Matt’s work, jump down to Part 2 where he presents the top-25 historical results and the breakout ages for…...
Pro Day Times and How You Can Gain an Edge by Doing Nothing At All
Matt Spencer
April 1, 2021
The year is 2021 and we are still having the same debate that’s been going on for over 10 years. It is particularly poignant this year with the cancellation of the NFL combine due to COVID-19. Why are pro day forty times faster than combine forty times and should we be adjusting them to get an apples-to-apples comparison with official combine laser timing? With no…...
Finding Touchdowns With The New Running Back Freak Score
Matt Spencer
March 22, 2021
Freak Score is our home-grown size-adjusted speed metric that uses height, weight, and speed to project the TD-scoring potential for NFL prospects. Unlike many other measures for an NFL prospect’s size/athleticism profile, the Freak Score incorporates player height. Since its inception 6 years ago the NFL has seen a great many changing trends, but the Freak Score has remained a top predictor. I recently went…...
How to Dominate March Madness Bracket Challenges and Improve Your Play in NFL DFS Tournaments
Matt Spencer
March 19, 2021
One of the biggest struggles when you get into DFS is learning how to think, specifically when creating lineups for your large tournaments or grand prize pools (GPP). You have to learn how to fill out a viable starting lineup of players that you feel have the potential to return value above and beyond their lineup cost, but at the same time you have must…...
6 Years In And Freak Score Is Still Finding You Touchdowns
Matt Spencer
March 12, 2021
Freak Score is our home grown size adjusted speed metric that uses height, weight, and speed to project the TD-scoring potential for NFL prospects. Unlike many other measures for an NFL prospect’s size/athleticism profile, the Freak Score incorporates player height. Since its inception 6 years ago the NFL has seen a great many changing trends, but the Freak Score has remained a top predictor. The Freak…...
Improvements to Breakout Age Make It Even More Effective in Locating Wide Receiver Gems
Matt Spencer
March 3, 2021
It’s rookie season again in the NFL analytics community and the fights are already starting at the wide receiver position. Be prepared to stumble into many arguments over how Jaylen Waddle failed to breakout or how it took Devonta Smith until his fourth and senior season to achieve his breakout all while we are forced to use Ja’Marr Chase’s age-adjusted production from 2019 due to…...
DFS Insights for the Week 5 Slate with K-Means Cluster Analysis
Matt Spencer
October 7, 2023
Welcome back to the series! In the previous installment, we dissected the strategies for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season using k-means clustering. If you missed it, you could catch up here. This week we made major upgrades to the analysis. Methodology (In-Brief) Aggregated projections from six sources for the first five weeks Collected the actual results of the first four weeks. Collected information…...
DFS Insights for the Week 4 Slate with K-Means Cluster Analysis
Matt Spencer
September 28, 2023
Welcome back to the series! In the previous installment, we dissected the strategies that worked for Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season retroactively using k-means clustering. If you missed it, you can catch up on our initial entry here. Now, armed with insights from the first three weeks, we’re ready to tackle Week 4 and recommend a robust player pool for DFS success. Methodology…...
Unpacking Week 2: K-Means Clustering for DFS Insights
Matt Spencer
September 19, 2023
In this article we’ll explore the power of k-means clustering analysis to figure out how we could have taken down the slate the most effectively. By isolating the projected Vegas spread, game total, matchup, projected points, salary, risk, and reward, we should be able to uncover some insights to help us in the coming weeks. Week 2 of the NFL season brought us a plethora…...
Are NFL Running Backs Underpaid? Unraveling True Value at a Controversial Position
Matt Spencer
July 20, 2023
Fantasy football discussions are often marred by misinformation and skewed comparisons. A recent viral tweet comparing the average salaries of NFL kickers to those of running backs is a prime example. Can someone please explain this? pic.twitter.com/e9XgywpOF9 — Dez Bryant (@DezBryant) July 18, 2023 This tweet exploded as part of the current discourse over a potential NFL running back holdout. It was shared by seemingly…...
Should You Handcuff Your Running Backs? Backfield Stacks and Their Effects on Win Rates
Matt Spencer
August 31, 2021
Matt Spencer uses the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer to determine whether handcuffing your RBs is a good strategy. Does it improve your floor or ceiling outcomes? Or is it simply a wasted roster spot? Football is still a week away and we’ve already lost J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, and Travis Etienne Jr., along with another 33 running backs listed on the injury report. If…...
Crush Your Home League with These Simulations and a Simple Pick Prediction Tool
Matt Spencer
August 30, 2021
I don’t care if you are in 100 expert leagues, the one you want to absolutely crush is still that first “home” league you joined with your local friends and family. No one wants to come into the office after a close loss to your raucous coworker. Which type of draft do you care about more? — Troy King ⚔️?? (@TKingMode) August 22, 2021 If…...
Simulating Optimal Roster Construction With The Scott Fish Bowl
Matt Spencer
June 30, 2021
Last week I went through the process of transforming your projections to include expected first downs. Now that Dave Caban dropped the official RotoViz projections, we can explore the snake draft simulation tool I created. I was lucky enough to be invited to participate in the Scott Fish Bowl Tournament again this year. One of Scott’s goals with this format is to create a really balanced…...
Estimating Expected First Downs for the Scott Fish Bowl
Matt Spencer
June 21, 2021
I was lucky enough to be invited to participate in the Scott Fish Bowl Tournament again this year. If you are not familiar, it is a massive charity tournament run by the great Scott Fish to raise money for charity. Among its various eccentricities, the unique scoring is always my favorite part of the tournament. This year it is effectively a half-PPR format with additional points…...
Inaccurate Auction Valuations Make It Possible for You to Draft a Super Team
Matt Spencer
June 11, 2021
This year I got roped into yet another league bringing the official total to … too many. This particular league is an auction draft which in my opinion is the all-time best format for analytics-driven fantasy managers to gain an edge. Rather than being forced into the confines of your draft position, you are free to define your own strategy. Planning In an auction draft,…...
Matt Spencer’s Machine Learning WR Prospect Model – Priority Targets, Value Picks, and Land Mines to Avoid
Matt Spencer
May 10, 2021
Editor’s Note: I’ve been extremely excited for the release of Matt’s machine-learning WR model, so I have to brag on him for a few moments before we get into the article. Matt’s model includes eight composite metrics. Age-adjusted production: This incorporates a lot of our signature RotoViz research, including Breakout Age, which Matt recently updated and improved, as well as whether prospects hit a 30%…...
The 2021 WR Class Is Loaded With Breakout Age Stars – 4 Rank in the Top 25 This Century
Matt Spencer
April 28, 2021
Earlier this offseason, Matt Spencer improved the WR breakout age metric and made it even more helpful in locating NFL stars. Part 1 is included in this article in order to help readers understand what BOA means and how it’s calculated. If you’re already familiar with Matt’s work, jump down to Part 2 where he presents the top-25 historical results and the breakout ages for…...
Pro Day Times and How You Can Gain an Edge by Doing Nothing At All
Matt Spencer
April 1, 2021
The year is 2021 and we are still having the same debate that’s been going on for over 10 years. It is particularly poignant this year with the cancellation of the NFL combine due to COVID-19. Why are pro day forty times faster than combine forty times and should we be adjusting them to get an apples-to-apples comparison with official combine laser timing? With no…...
Finding Touchdowns With The New Running Back Freak Score
Matt Spencer
March 22, 2021
Freak Score is our home-grown size-adjusted speed metric that uses height, weight, and speed to project the TD-scoring potential for NFL prospects. Unlike many other measures for an NFL prospect’s size/athleticism profile, the Freak Score incorporates player height. Since its inception 6 years ago the NFL has seen a great many changing trends, but the Freak Score has remained a top predictor. I recently went…...
How to Dominate March Madness Bracket Challenges and Improve Your Play in NFL DFS Tournaments
Matt Spencer
March 19, 2021
One of the biggest struggles when you get into DFS is learning how to think, specifically when creating lineups for your large tournaments or grand prize pools (GPP). You have to learn how to fill out a viable starting lineup of players that you feel have the potential to return value above and beyond their lineup cost, but at the same time you have must…...
6 Years In And Freak Score Is Still Finding You Touchdowns
Matt Spencer
March 12, 2021
Freak Score is our home grown size adjusted speed metric that uses height, weight, and speed to project the TD-scoring potential for NFL prospects. Unlike many other measures for an NFL prospect’s size/athleticism profile, the Freak Score incorporates player height. Since its inception 6 years ago the NFL has seen a great many changing trends, but the Freak Score has remained a top predictor. The Freak…...
Improvements to Breakout Age Make It Even More Effective in Locating Wide Receiver Gems
Matt Spencer
March 3, 2021
It’s rookie season again in the NFL analytics community and the fights are already starting at the wide receiver position. Be prepared to stumble into many arguments over how Jaylen Waddle failed to breakout or how it took Devonta Smith until his fourth and senior season to achieve his breakout all while we are forced to use Ja’Marr Chase’s age-adjusted production from 2019 due to…...
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