Neil Dutton

Lead Writer, soft spot for the tight end position. Will never stop loving Duke Johnson.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

The Guy Behind the Guy: RotoViz’s Favorite Backup WRs in 2019

In the latest in our series looking at players lodged behind a more established starter on their depth chart heading into 2019, we come to the wide receiver spot. With the proliferation of more and more multiple wide receiver sets, it is hard to really class any at that spot as a backup. It is perhaps because of this that not as many of our…...

2 Wide Receivers Whose Prices Haven’t Caught Up with Their Opportunity

Volume is king when it comes to fantasy football. Whether it’s touches per game for a running back or targets for a wide receiver, usage is the biggest indicator of potential fantasy production. And sometimes it’s in unexpected places that we find meaningful usage rates for the WR position. Weighted Opportunity Rating, or WOPR, is a metric created by Josh Hermesmeyer that measures a receivers…...

The Guy Behind the Guy: RotoViz’s Favorite Backup RBs in 2019

There have been a number of people, in a number of fields, throughout history who should have been remembered as one of the all-time greats. Should, were it not for the presence of one greater than they plying their trade at the exact same time. A bit like breaking the world record for the 100m . . . whilst finishing second behind someone even faster…...

Will Fuller Is Healthy And Ready To Join The NFL’s Elite In 2019

Will Fuller was averaging 15.2 PPG in 2018 when he tore his ACL in Week 8. Expected to be close to 100% in Week 1, the young field-stretcher is set to star this season. Dynasty owners and swashbuckling best ball drafters everywhere breathed a huge sigh of relief when Fuller arrived at training camp healthy. “It feels good to be back out there, running routes…...

Is Damien Williams Still Worth a Second-Round Pick?

As we inch closer to the start of the regular NFL season and the injuries continue to mount, it’s become clear that there is one backfield to keep our eyes on. That backfield is Kansas City. Damien Williams is consistently being drafted in the second round. Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners, he’s come down with a hamstring early in training camp that’s kept…...

WRS That Will Score Less: Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s abilitay to score touchdowns — and thus…...

The Cowboys Are All Undervalued, and 5 Other Players to Target in Fantasy Drafts: NFC East Division Preview

This is the first part in an eight-part series previewing each NFL division. I will predict team’s records, order of finish, and point out fantasy studs, mid-round values, late-round gems, and a breakout player from each division. First up, the NFC East. NFC East Dallas (11-5) Philadelphia (10-6) Washington (6-10) NY Giants (5-11) This division is divided between the have and the have nots. Dallas…...

Rookie Wide Receiver Breakouts – 7 Key Stats to Know About an Accelerating Trend

Rookie wide receivers tend to struggle in redraft. Dave Caban recently showed that even first-round picks are rarely startable in their initial campaigns. The numbers for second-rounders are far worse. We know second-year WRs are the class to target, and rookies don’t break out as frequently as the third-year players either. However, rookies aren’t worthless by any stretch, and the receivers who do emerge go…...

2019 Apex Experts Draft – Live Results

The 2019 Apex Experts draft kicked off its annual festivities on the first day of August. This is one of my favorite events every year, and it’s again stocked with the best minds in the fantasy industry. Last year, I was lucky enough to make the finals where I fell to Denny Carter.((Denny never picks a QB during the Apex draft itself, but he provided…...

Kalen Ballage Is One of the Easiest Plays in Fantasy And Also One of the Most Difficult

Kalen Ballage is probably the easiest play in all of fantasy football. He’s also one of the most difficult, because he violates a key principle for selecting middle-round Zero RB candidates – target good players. It created a fantasy hullabaloo when Ballage took the first training camp snap over not-quite-incumbent Kenyan Drake. Some covering the team hypothesized that the call might have been simply sending…...

Could Doogie Howser Help Oakland’s Receiving Corps? 2 Raiders Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

2019’s WR Phenom Index Scores and the Buccaneers Deep Sleeper Who Tops Them All

We’re rolling along in our deep sleeper series, and by now you know the drill — these are guys who have something in their profile that gives us hope, despite what their depressed ADP is telling us. Something a little different for this one, as we’re getting our first look at this year’s wide receiver Phenom Index numbers, a Jon Moore metric which measures age-adjusted…...

The Early Breakout Rookie WR Sean Payton and Drew Brees are Raving About: 2 Saints Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

This Sleeper Might Step Up If The Browns Trade Duke Johnson

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

This Cheap, Young Vet With Locked-In Targets Is a Dead Ringer for Parris Campbell and Mecole Hardman

Mecole Hardman and Parris Campbell were cult favorites heading into the 2019 NFL draft. But when they landed in the second round to Kansas City and Indianapolis, the fantasy community truly fell in love. The two speedsters were suddenly set to spend their careers lassoing lasers from Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck. For most of the summer they stayed well ahead of Andy Isabella and…...

The Draft’s Fastest RB & The Next Golden Tate? 2 Detroit Lions Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

Talent Lurks Behind Minnesota’s 3-Headed Monster: 2 Vikings Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

How to Avoid RB Land Mines: 9 Traits to Sidestep Early, Plus 10 Backs to Target

Zero RB quietly posted a 14% win rate in 2018. Meanwhile, RBs drafted in Rounds 3 and 4 won at absurdly low rates and the position accounted for the seven worst individual-player win rates of anyone drafted in the first four rounds. The simple solution is to just avoid drafting RBs in that area. But what if you don’t want the simple solution? If we…...

The Running Back Who Outplayed Saquon Barkley Is Basically Free: 2 Washington Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

2019 RotoViz Projections: 2 Late Round QBs that Will Be Weekly Starters

In many leagues, waiting until the later rounds of the draft to select a quarterback is a sound strategy. A major reason for this is the slim margin separating the QB7 and the QB14, for example, in fantasy points scored and the requirement that only one QB be started. In 2018, Jared Goff scored 310 points as the QB7. Tom Brady, who finished as QB14,…...

The Guy Behind the Guy: RotoViz’s Favorite Backup WRs in 2019

In the latest in our series looking at players lodged behind a more established starter on their depth chart heading into 2019, we come to the wide receiver spot. With the proliferation of more and more multiple wide receiver sets, it is hard to really class any at that spot as a backup. It is perhaps because of this that not as many of our…...

2 Wide Receivers Whose Prices Haven’t Caught Up with Their Opportunity

Volume is king when it comes to fantasy football. Whether it’s touches per game for a running back or targets for a wide receiver, usage is the biggest indicator of potential fantasy production. And sometimes it’s in unexpected places that we find meaningful usage rates for the WR position. Weighted Opportunity Rating, or WOPR, is a metric created by Josh Hermesmeyer that measures a receivers…...

The Guy Behind the Guy: RotoViz’s Favorite Backup RBs in 2019

There have been a number of people, in a number of fields, throughout history who should have been remembered as one of the all-time greats. Should, were it not for the presence of one greater than they plying their trade at the exact same time. A bit like breaking the world record for the 100m . . . whilst finishing second behind someone even faster…...

Will Fuller Is Healthy And Ready To Join The NFL’s Elite In 2019

Will Fuller was averaging 15.2 PPG in 2018 when he tore his ACL in Week 8. Expected to be close to 100% in Week 1, the young field-stretcher is set to star this season. Dynasty owners and swashbuckling best ball drafters everywhere breathed a huge sigh of relief when Fuller arrived at training camp healthy. “It feels good to be back out there, running routes…...

Is Damien Williams Still Worth a Second-Round Pick?

As we inch closer to the start of the regular NFL season and the injuries continue to mount, it’s become clear that there is one backfield to keep our eyes on. That backfield is Kansas City. Damien Williams is consistently being drafted in the second round. Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners, he’s come down with a hamstring early in training camp that’s kept…...

WRS That Will Score Less: Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s abilitay to score touchdowns — and thus…...

The Cowboys Are All Undervalued, and 5 Other Players to Target in Fantasy Drafts: NFC East Division Preview

This is the first part in an eight-part series previewing each NFL division. I will predict team’s records, order of finish, and point out fantasy studs, mid-round values, late-round gems, and a breakout player from each division. First up, the NFC East. NFC East Dallas (11-5) Philadelphia (10-6) Washington (6-10) NY Giants (5-11) This division is divided between the have and the have nots. Dallas…...

Rookie Wide Receiver Breakouts – 7 Key Stats to Know About an Accelerating Trend

Rookie wide receivers tend to struggle in redraft. Dave Caban recently showed that even first-round picks are rarely startable in their initial campaigns. The numbers for second-rounders are far worse. We know second-year WRs are the class to target, and rookies don’t break out as frequently as the third-year players either. However, rookies aren’t worthless by any stretch, and the receivers who do emerge go…...

2019 Apex Experts Draft – Live Results

The 2019 Apex Experts draft kicked off its annual festivities on the first day of August. This is one of my favorite events every year, and it’s again stocked with the best minds in the fantasy industry. Last year, I was lucky enough to make the finals where I fell to Denny Carter.((Denny never picks a QB during the Apex draft itself, but he provided…...

Kalen Ballage Is One of the Easiest Plays in Fantasy And Also One of the Most Difficult

Kalen Ballage is probably the easiest play in all of fantasy football. He’s also one of the most difficult, because he violates a key principle for selecting middle-round Zero RB candidates – target good players. It created a fantasy hullabaloo when Ballage took the first training camp snap over not-quite-incumbent Kenyan Drake. Some covering the team hypothesized that the call might have been simply sending…...

Could Doogie Howser Help Oakland’s Receiving Corps? 2 Raiders Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

2019’s WR Phenom Index Scores and the Buccaneers Deep Sleeper Who Tops Them All

We’re rolling along in our deep sleeper series, and by now you know the drill — these are guys who have something in their profile that gives us hope, despite what their depressed ADP is telling us. Something a little different for this one, as we’re getting our first look at this year’s wide receiver Phenom Index numbers, a Jon Moore metric which measures age-adjusted…...

The Early Breakout Rookie WR Sean Payton and Drew Brees are Raving About: 2 Saints Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

This Sleeper Might Step Up If The Browns Trade Duke Johnson

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

This Cheap, Young Vet With Locked-In Targets Is a Dead Ringer for Parris Campbell and Mecole Hardman

Mecole Hardman and Parris Campbell were cult favorites heading into the 2019 NFL draft. But when they landed in the second round to Kansas City and Indianapolis, the fantasy community truly fell in love. The two speedsters were suddenly set to spend their careers lassoing lasers from Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck. For most of the summer they stayed well ahead of Andy Isabella and…...

The Draft’s Fastest RB & The Next Golden Tate? 2 Detroit Lions Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

Talent Lurks Behind Minnesota’s 3-Headed Monster: 2 Vikings Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

How to Avoid RB Land Mines: 9 Traits to Sidestep Early, Plus 10 Backs to Target

Zero RB quietly posted a 14% win rate in 2018. Meanwhile, RBs drafted in Rounds 3 and 4 won at absurdly low rates and the position accounted for the seven worst individual-player win rates of anyone drafted in the first four rounds. The simple solution is to just avoid drafting RBs in that area. But what if you don’t want the simple solution? If we…...

The Running Back Who Outplayed Saquon Barkley Is Basically Free: 2 Washington Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

2019 RotoViz Projections: 2 Late Round QBs that Will Be Weekly Starters

In many leagues, waiting until the later rounds of the draft to select a quarterback is a sound strategy. A major reason for this is the slim margin separating the QB7 and the QB14, for example, in fantasy points scored and the requirement that only one QB be started. In 2018, Jared Goff scored 310 points as the QB7. Tom Brady, who finished as QB14,…...

The Guy Behind the Guy: RotoViz’s Favorite Backup WRs in 2019

In the latest in our series looking at players lodged behind a more established starter on their depth chart heading into 2019, we come to the wide receiver spot. With the proliferation of more and more multiple wide receiver sets, it is hard to really class any at that spot as a backup. It is perhaps because of this that not as many of our…...

2 Wide Receivers Whose Prices Haven’t Caught Up with Their Opportunity

Volume is king when it comes to fantasy football. Whether it’s touches per game for a running back or targets for a wide receiver, usage is the biggest indicator of potential fantasy production. And sometimes it’s in unexpected places that we find meaningful usage rates for the WR position. Weighted Opportunity Rating, or WOPR, is a metric created by Josh Hermesmeyer that measures a receivers…...

The Guy Behind the Guy: RotoViz’s Favorite Backup RBs in 2019

There have been a number of people, in a number of fields, throughout history who should have been remembered as one of the all-time greats. Should, were it not for the presence of one greater than they plying their trade at the exact same time. A bit like breaking the world record for the 100m . . . whilst finishing second behind someone even faster…...

Will Fuller Is Healthy And Ready To Join The NFL’s Elite In 2019

Will Fuller was averaging 15.2 PPG in 2018 when he tore his ACL in Week 8. Expected to be close to 100% in Week 1, the young field-stretcher is set to star this season. Dynasty owners and swashbuckling best ball drafters everywhere breathed a huge sigh of relief when Fuller arrived at training camp healthy. “It feels good to be back out there, running routes…...

Is Damien Williams Still Worth a Second-Round Pick?

As we inch closer to the start of the regular NFL season and the injuries continue to mount, it’s become clear that there is one backfield to keep our eyes on. That backfield is Kansas City. Damien Williams is consistently being drafted in the second round. Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners, he’s come down with a hamstring early in training camp that’s kept…...

WRS That Will Score Less: Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s abilitay to score touchdowns — and thus…...

The Cowboys Are All Undervalued, and 5 Other Players to Target in Fantasy Drafts: NFC East Division Preview

This is the first part in an eight-part series previewing each NFL division. I will predict team’s records, order of finish, and point out fantasy studs, mid-round values, late-round gems, and a breakout player from each division. First up, the NFC East. NFC East Dallas (11-5) Philadelphia (10-6) Washington (6-10) NY Giants (5-11) This division is divided between the have and the have nots. Dallas…...

Rookie Wide Receiver Breakouts – 7 Key Stats to Know About an Accelerating Trend

Rookie wide receivers tend to struggle in redraft. Dave Caban recently showed that even first-round picks are rarely startable in their initial campaigns. The numbers for second-rounders are far worse. We know second-year WRs are the class to target, and rookies don’t break out as frequently as the third-year players either. However, rookies aren’t worthless by any stretch, and the receivers who do emerge go…...

2019 Apex Experts Draft – Live Results

The 2019 Apex Experts draft kicked off its annual festivities on the first day of August. This is one of my favorite events every year, and it’s again stocked with the best minds in the fantasy industry. Last year, I was lucky enough to make the finals where I fell to Denny Carter.((Denny never picks a QB during the Apex draft itself, but he provided…...

Kalen Ballage Is One of the Easiest Plays in Fantasy And Also One of the Most Difficult

Kalen Ballage is probably the easiest play in all of fantasy football. He’s also one of the most difficult, because he violates a key principle for selecting middle-round Zero RB candidates – target good players. It created a fantasy hullabaloo when Ballage took the first training camp snap over not-quite-incumbent Kenyan Drake. Some covering the team hypothesized that the call might have been simply sending…...

Could Doogie Howser Help Oakland’s Receiving Corps? 2 Raiders Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

2019’s WR Phenom Index Scores and the Buccaneers Deep Sleeper Who Tops Them All

We’re rolling along in our deep sleeper series, and by now you know the drill — these are guys who have something in their profile that gives us hope, despite what their depressed ADP is telling us. Something a little different for this one, as we’re getting our first look at this year’s wide receiver Phenom Index numbers, a Jon Moore metric which measures age-adjusted…...

The Early Breakout Rookie WR Sean Payton and Drew Brees are Raving About: 2 Saints Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

This Sleeper Might Step Up If The Browns Trade Duke Johnson

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

This Cheap, Young Vet With Locked-In Targets Is a Dead Ringer for Parris Campbell and Mecole Hardman

Mecole Hardman and Parris Campbell were cult favorites heading into the 2019 NFL draft. But when they landed in the second round to Kansas City and Indianapolis, the fantasy community truly fell in love. The two speedsters were suddenly set to spend their careers lassoing lasers from Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck. For most of the summer they stayed well ahead of Andy Isabella and…...

The Draft’s Fastest RB & The Next Golden Tate? 2 Detroit Lions Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

Talent Lurks Behind Minnesota’s 3-Headed Monster: 2 Vikings Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

How to Avoid RB Land Mines: 9 Traits to Sidestep Early, Plus 10 Backs to Target

Zero RB quietly posted a 14% win rate in 2018. Meanwhile, RBs drafted in Rounds 3 and 4 won at absurdly low rates and the position accounted for the seven worst individual-player win rates of anyone drafted in the first four rounds. The simple solution is to just avoid drafting RBs in that area. But what if you don’t want the simple solution? If we…...

The Running Back Who Outplayed Saquon Barkley Is Basically Free: 2 Washington Deep Sleepers

Most fantasy analysis is devoted to sorting the order of players likely to have an immediate impact, but every year there are a handful of overlooked deep sleepers who emerge to fill a starting role in redraft. Last year, it was guys like Phillip Lindsay and James Conner at running back. Deep sleepers at WR are a little harder to find, but we did tell you to watch out for Curtis Samuel,…...

2019 RotoViz Projections: 2 Late Round QBs that Will Be Weekly Starters

In many leagues, waiting until the later rounds of the draft to select a quarterback is a sound strategy. A major reason for this is the slim margin separating the QB7 and the QB14, for example, in fantasy points scored and the requirement that only one QB be started. In 2018, Jared Goff scored 310 points as the QB7. Tom Brady, who finished as QB14,…...

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