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ADP Arbitrage: Anquan Boldin, Marvin Jones, and T.Y. Hilton

Hilton

If you haven’t tried it out, give the ADP Arbitrage App a whirl. It lets you find a wide receiver, and then based on similarity projections, identifies comparable (but cheaper!) WRs. Here’s a few examples of how to put it to use.

Anquan Boldin

Justin Winn just did a great write up on Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree, which you should check out. That article is what prompted this one. Using the WR Arbitrage App, these are the receivers for whom Boldin is a suggested doppelganger.

NAME SEAS OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Anquan Boldin 2013 SF 33 220 16 8.06 5.31 73.69 0.44 0.22 9.14 46
NAME SEAS OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Andre Johnson 2013 HOU 32 225 16 11.31 6.81 87.94 0.31 -0.07 7.77 18
Marques Colston 2013 NO 30 225 15 7.4 5 62.87 0.33 0.06 8.5 31
Reggie Wayne 2013 IND 35 198 7 8.43 5.57 72.57 0.29 0.01 8.61 33
Vincent Jackson 2013 TB 30 230 16 10 4.88 76.5 0.44 -0.01 7.65 11

That’s a bargain. There are fair questions about Reggie Wayne’s value going forward, and Marques Colston has concerns as well. All four of those WRs do have value this year, however, which is the important thing here. Boldin makes a fine substitute if you miss out on one, or, perhaps better, a way to double-dip and give yourself a powerful flex/depth option and injury protection.

Marvin Jones

The subject of another excellent write up by Matthew Berry, Jones presents an interesting case. Take a look.

NAME SEAS OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Marvin Jones 2013 CIN 23 200 16 5 3.19 44.5 0.62 0.55 8.9 56
NAME SEAS OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Terrance Williams 2013 DAL 24 208 15 4.93 2.93 49.07 0.33 0.35 9.95 35
Rueben Randle 2013 NYG 22 208 16 4.88 2.56 38.19 0.38 0.26 7.83 49
Riley Cooper 2013 PHI 26 222 16 5.19 2.94 52.19 0.5 0.55 10.06 38
Aaron Dobson 2013 NE 22 210 11 6.55 3.36 47.18 0.36 -0.01 7.21 55

If Terrance Williams is a screaming bargain, then Marvin Jones must be comically undervalued. Rueben Randle is absolutely someone I’m still buying. But Jones makes a good consolation prize. Aaron Dobson may be just one foot from glory, but he has plenty of competition for targets. Riley Cooper is a bargain in his own right, but then Jones has youth and a lower ADP on his side. For my sake, with Randle, Dobson, and Jones all available at roughly WR50 or later, it makes it much easier to pass on Williams and Cooper.

Julian Edelman T.Y. Hilton

Fantasy Douche made a really interesting argument for Julian Edelman as a mid-round target recently, but here’s why I’m less interested in him. In this case, the App helped me figure out a player I’d like to avoid.

NAME SEAS OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Julian Edelman 2013 NE 27 198 16 9.44 6.56 66 0.38 -0.11 6.99 27
NAME SEAS OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Mike Wallace 2013 MIA 27 199 16 8.81 4.56 58.12 0.31 -0.1 6.6 29
Victor Cruz 2013 NYG 27 204 14 8.71 5.21 71.29 0.29 0.01 8.18 16
Cecil Shorts 2013 JAC 26 205 13 9.46 5.08 59.77 0.23 -0.29 6.32 44
Ty Hilton 2013 IND 24 183 16 8.69 5.19 67.88 0.31 -0.02 7.81 23

These are the results from the Arbitrage App. The first thing to notice is that the only one that’s significantly cheaper is Cecil Shorts. Shorts is a good player, but there are new receivers and a new quarterback in Jacksonville. Victor Cruz and Mike Wallace are also decent-ish but inconsistent fantasy players, nothing special, and both play with mid-level quarterbacks. The reason I’m looking for an arbitrage opportunity for Edelman is spelled out in Douche’s article, but basically there’s a lot of “if this then that” required in order for him to hit his ceiling. But Hilton has a similar ADP to Edelman, plays with arguably the best fantasy QB, has a lot to like, and may even be underrated at his current ADP. I’ll take Hilton out of this group. Sometimes cheaper isn’t better.

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