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The Rundown: The Patriots, Torrey Smith, Robert Woods, and More
bostonsbettah.com
bostonsbettah.com

Bye Bye Bolden, Bye Bye Boyce

Eric Frenz reports that Brandon Bolden may not make the Patriots final roster. The significance?

Bolden has the size and running style to play the “big back” role in the Patriots’ offense. If Bolden is cut, that would leave just Stevan Ridley to fill that role.

Hmm. Maybe Bill Belichick read this. Or this. Or this. Or this. Or this. Yea, we like Ridley.

Frenz also reports that he doesn’t expect Josh Boyce to make the Pats final roster. Boyce had generated a bit of offseason sleeper buzz, but this report sounds like good news for Aaron Dobson and even Kenbrell Thompkins, two Patriots’ receivers we’ve talked about recently.

Bouncing Around with Marvin

I’m assuming that everybody is familiar with John Paulsen, but Mike Margossian is another good Twitter follow, if you’re into best-ball leagues. The graph Margossian provides illustrates the volatility in Marvin Jones’ ADP. This matters because Jones is comically undervalued and represents an arbitrage play on the higher-drafted Riley Cooper, among others. A volatile ADP suggests drafters haven’t made up their minds about Jones yet. Keep an eye out and try to take advantage of the dips.

Torrey Smith

Torrey Smith was Joe Flacco’s most efficient target in 2013. And in 2012. Oh, and in 2011. But Smith doesn’t get much hype in the fantasy football community. That might change this year. Justin Winn explains what Gary Kubiak can do for a number one wideout, and Rich Hribar explains why Smith will be a number one fantasy wideout as well. In redraft he makes a good arbitrage play on Victor Cruz. Missed out on him in dynasty, but still have your rookie draft upcoming? Look who’s Smith’s 2014 rookie doppelganger.

Robert Woods

Buffalo Bills expert and occasional RotoViz contributor Chris Trapasso recently opined that Robert Woods will lead the Bills in receptions this year.

In the 8.5 games the two played together as rookies, Woods snagged 26 passes for 406 yards with three touchdowns. That makes for a rather hefty 15.6 yards-per-catch average. Extrapolations are essentially educated guesses, but effortless math tells us Woods was on pace for a 50+ catch, 800-yard, six-touchdown year had he and Manuel played the entire regular season.

I’m buying Trapasso’s argument. Those are pretty decent numbers for a second round rookie, as I discussed here. In addition to highlighting why Woods makes a better target than Justin Hunter, that article breaks down the thresholds at which we can consider a second round rookie wideout to be a likely long term fantasy contributor. Woods nearly made those thresholds anyway, and if you use Trapasso’s extrapolated numbers, he meets them handily. Historically, receivers that profiled similarly averaged over 12 fantasy points/game (0.5PPR) for the rest of their careers. And for you bargain hunters? The ADP Arbitrage App suggests Woods as a cheaper version of Cordarelle Patterson, and he was our No. 6 Breakout WR.

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