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5 Guys To Avoid: Rounds 1-5 Edition

peyton-manning-and-the-broncos-gave-papa-johns-free-advertising-during-a-play-against-the-eagles

Peyton Manning (ADP- 1.08)

I just hate the notion of Peyton Manning in the first round. It happens in every draft I see.1 Quarterback points are easily replaceable in this game, compared to wide receiver and running back. Manning had a career 2013, as he marched his way to a record-breaking season. Statistically speaking, there is a very slim chance he’s will repeat what he did last year. Throwing for 5,477 yards, 55 touchdowns, and a mere 10 interceptions, he’s the most prime candidate for regression this year. Per Rich Hribar, Manning accumulated 25 percent of his fantasy points while the Broncos were up by two TDs or more. Depending on your league settings, that’s somewhere along the lines of 100-plus points. I don’t believe that is likely to be a recurring scenario. Much like Fantasy Douche, my draft plan this year is along the lines of starting WRx4 + RBx3 + WRx3 if it’s a PPR league or RBx3 or RBx4 for standard leagues. When it comes to QB, I’m either targeting these three late round options, or a combination of late round QBs, which Scott Smith highlights here. Russell Wilson and Jay Cutler are also a few mid-round options that pique my interest depending who’s on the board.

Arian Foster (ADP- 2.09)

You couldn’t pay me enough to select Foster this year. I can’t see him making through a full 17 games. He even contemplated retiring coming off his back surgery. His numbers have been declining in the last few seasons, he’s soon to be 28 years old and has yet to suit up for preseason game.

RB_Similarity_Scores

Using the RotoViz Sim Score App, Foster has pretty pessimistic projection. Projections shouldn’t be taken as the gospel, obviously, but that doesn’t appear to be a promising outlook for your second pick. I’ve tagged Foster as fantasy kryptonite this year, and James Todd selected him the RotoViz Roundtable of overvalued players we won’t touch in 2014. There are much more appealing options at his ADP such as, Le’Veon Bell, Doug Martin, or Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall if you’re looking for a WR.

Reggie Bush (ADP- 3.08)

I think the reigns to the starting RB have changed hands in Detroit this year. While Reggie Bush gains most of the attention, Joique Bell is a much more intriguing option for me. Not to mention his ADP comes in at 5.05–two rounds later than his teammate.

NFL_Snap_Count___Snaps_Played___FantasyData_com

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The Lions relied on these backs in similar fashion. Bell is presumably the back who handles most the goal-line work for Detroit. He topped Bush, eight TDs to four, last year. Bell is just as much as a threat in the passing game, as he caught 53 passes for 547 yards to Bush’s 54 passes for 506 yards.

Using the Heatmap, you can get a better picture of how each was utilized last year.

NFL_Career_Graphs

The Lions worked out a two-year extension with Bell, which makes me think they may utilize him more often than not. This has the shapings of an RBC, and I’m more likely to side with the guy who’s going two rounds later and handles the ball in those precious goal-line situations.

Frank Gore (ADP- 4.07)

I think it’s more about Carlos Hyde than anything else. The 49ers love this kid and he’s been dominating the preseason thus far.

 

Average_Draft_Position__ADP__-_Fantasy_Football_Calculator

Gore’s ADP has dropped a few round since early January, and Hyde’s ADP is starting to gain some traction.

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Looking at how Gore finished last year, makes me a little uneasy on selecting him in the fourth round. Gore is now 31 years of age and his glory days are behind him. If Gore starts the 2014 season the same way he finished 2013, I could see the 49ers giving Hyde more of role in this offense. Justin Winn helps out with navigating the San Francisco backfield. I think Gore’s ADP isn’t going to match his production. I’m more likely to target a WR in this round and target RBs like Jeremy Hill and Fred Jackson much later.

Wes Welker (ADP- 5.07)

For the fifth round, I couldn’t decide between Chris Johnson or Wes Welker, but I am strongly avoiding both of them this year. There’s just too much risk built into Welker. I love his talent and how he plays, but three concussions in the last 10 months is an eye-opener for me. Granted the Broncos think he’s on his way to be ready for season opener.

Football is a brutal game, and Welker is constantly taking shots over the middle. I would not be shocked if he gets knocked out at another point in time this season. As the conservative drafter that I am, I’m not going to risk taking Welker in the fifth round, when I can possibly select Michael Floyd, Torrey Smith, or even Bell, depending on what position I am targeting. If you think the reward of selecting Welker outweighs the risk in the fifth round, then I won’t argue because we’ve seen how effective he is in this offense, but the concussions are an issue for me.

  1. He was selected at 1.04 in my most recent draft.  (back)

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