We face these decisions constantly. Chicken or steak? Coke or Pepsi? Beer or hard cider (maybe not that one). Boneless or bone-in wings? Anyway, the same thing happens in fantasy football with every round of every draft. Player A or player B? We sit and ponder, looking at all the statistics, strength of schedule, looking for any recent news that may sway our decision. This happens until the seconds nearly expire on our clock, then we have no choice but to make our selection. I am hoping with this ADP Duel series to pull together actionable information that will help you and I make our draft day decisions a little bit easier.
ADP, easy as 1, 2, 3 . . .
A.J. Green and Dez Bryant are nearly identical with their ADP. Like me, I imagine other fantasy players may struggle making a choice between the two.
A.J. Green vs. Dez Bryant- Game Splits
I took the game splits from the last three years and switched the splits to include when they faced top 10 pass defenses, just to give us an idea of how they perform against stiff competition. Both wide receivers are considered to be elite. They both take a dip in production in fantasy points when they’re up against top 10 pass defenses, which is to be expected. They’re nearly similar in how their fantasy output changes when facing better opponents.
A.J. Green vs. Dez Bryant- Heatmap
Once again, it’s clear why these two players have similar ADPs. They have similar stats in nearly every category. The difference in each category is minor.
A.J. Green vs. Dez Bryant- AYA
The AYA app is an interesting tool at RotoViz. Justin Winn looked at some AYA red flags and all-stars earlier in the year. AYA stands for adjusted yards per attempt, a variation of yards per attempt that factors in touchdowns and interceptions. What this app does is let you see how efficient a quarterback is when throwing to a given target. When looking into AYA for each player, I used the AYA from the 2013 season.
When debating these two WRs, the key difference for me is who’s throwing them the ball. The pictures above show just how much more efficient Tony Romo was when throwing to Bryant, compared to when Andy Dalton is throwing to Green. Dalton threw 12 interceptions when he was targeting Green, compared to two interceptions when Romo threw to Bryant. Green does have an edge over Bryant when it comes to yards and receptions. He had 32 more targets than Bryant, but only 13 more receptions. Bryant still has the edge on TDs, despite being targeted less. Of Bryant’s 12 TDs last season, 10 of them came from in the red zone. He’s is an absolute monster in the red zone and Romo knows how to find him. On the flip side, of Green’s 11 TDs, five of them were in the red zone. It should also be noted that Bryant and Green both had similar red zone targets in 2013: 21 for Bryant and 22 for Green.
Questions- A.J. Green
– The Bengals scored 70 percent of their red zone TDs via the pass. How will those numbers change with Hue Jackson?
– Will junior wideout Marvin Jones and sophomore tight end Tyler Eifert be more involved in the red zone and in general?
– How much has Dalton improved?
Questions- Dez Bryant
– What does the addition of Scott Linehan mean for Bryant?
– Is Romo fully recovered from back surgery?
– Can the Cowboys improve the pace on offense? Dead last in offensive plays last year.
I think Dez Bryant is the winner here. It’s hard to beat his red zone dominance. Lets also not forget that Marvin Jones converted 64 percent of his red zone targets for nine TDs. If you refer back to the heat map, you’ll see Green has received 30 percent of his team’s targets (reTRGMS). I believe with the addition of Jackson calling the plays and the emergence of Jones, Eifert, and Giovani Bernard in the passing game, Green stands to see some regression this year. On the other hand Bryant’s reTRGMS has increased each year. Linehan had Calvin Johnson to utilize how he saw fit in Detroit and now he has Bryant to play that role.
Whether you agree or disagree, I’d love to hear why. Feel free to tweet me or write in the comments below.