revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

ADP Duel: Antonio Brown vs. Alshon Jeffery

packers-bears-football-alshon-jeffery_pg_600_Fotor_Collage

We face these decisions constantly. Chicken or steak? Coke or Pepsi? Beer or hard cider (maybe not that one). Boneless or bone-in wings? Anyway, the same thing happens in fantasy football. Player A or player B? We sit and ponder, looking at all the statistics, strength of schedule, looking for any recent news that may sway our decision. I am hoping with this ADP Duel series to pull together actionable information that will make our draft day decisions a little bit easier.

ADP, easy as 1,2,3 . . .

Judging by the talk I’ve seen on Twitter, the statistics Antonio Brown put up last year mean he’s in for regression this year. And when you consider Alshon Jeffery had his best games with Josh McCown under center (match-ups were heavily favorable for McCown and Jeffery), deciding between these two receivers will be one of this year’s tougher decisions.

Average_Draft_Position__ADP__-_Fantasy_Football_Calculator

Alshon Jeffery vs. Antonio Brown- Game Splits

indexindex

 

 

 

 

 

 

I typically start these duels by look at the splits between the two players when they face top 10 pass and rush defenses. These splits are from the 2013 season. Despite facing tougher pass defenses, both receivers did not see much of a drop in fantasy points, roughly two points worse for each of them.

Alshon Jeffery vs. Antonio Brown- Heatmapindex

Jeffery showed tremendous improvement in his sophomore year. The most noticeable improvements were his almost 100 percent increase in targets, which rose from 4.8 to 9.31. He more than doubled his receiving yards from year one to year two and he received 26 percent of his team’s targets, which is as much as most teams’ number one receiver. In Brown’s first year in the absence of Mike Wallace, he improved in every category except his reTDRT which remained the same–and also matched Jeffery’s.

Alshon Jeffery vs. Antonio Brown- AYA

The AYA app is an interesting tool at RotoViz. Justin Winn looked at some AYA red flags and all-stars earlier in the year. AYA stands for adjusted yards per attempt, a variation of yards per attempt that factors in touchdowns and interceptions. What this app does is let you see how efficient a quarterback is when throwing to a given target. When looking into AYA for each player, I used the stats from the 2013 season.

The_AYA_App

 

The_AYA_App

 

This is a fairly limited sample from Jeffery, since Cutler was knocked out early in the year. Marshall’s AYA with Cutler is 7.88, so both receivers are similar in that respect. One thing I noticed is that Big Ben completed nearly 66 percent of his passes to Brown, while the Cutler to Jeffery completion percentage was at 56 percent.

Questions- Alshon Jeffery

– Can the targets even out between him and Brandon Marshall?

– Is Jeffery worth his ADP?

Twitter___Notifications

Questions- Antonio Brown

– Is Brown due to see regression?

– Is Brown a must-sell? Ask Mike Kerrane.

Winner

The case can be made for either of these players. No matter who I choose here, some people will disagree. However, there are no ties in a duel. Somebody has to win. Brown had a career year last year. On the left side from Pro Football Reference, we have receivers since 2007  (who are active) that have had at least 1,400 receiving yards, 100 receptions, 13.6 yards per reception, and 90 yards per game. The only player on that list more than once is Andre Johnson (three times). It appears there is a significant chance Brown will regress this year. It is difficult to maintain that sort of production on a consistent basis.  Player_Season_Finder_Query_Results___Pro-Football-Reference_com

On the other hand, Jeffery is competing for targets with Marshall on the opposite side, but Jacob Myers points out that Jeffery should see more TDs this year. There will be weeks where Jeffery dominates the stat sheet, but how consistent will it be?

It’s close, but I’m going to give Antonio Brown the win here. He never had any less than 50 yards receiving or less than five receptions in any game last year. He’s also not fighting for targets with another elite receiver. Brown gives you the safe nurturing feeling that your early picks should provide for you.

Whether you agree or disagree, I’d love to hear why. Feel free to tweet me or post in the comments below.

Other ADP Duels:

A.J. Green vs. Dez Bryant

Giovani Bernard vs. Le’Veon Bell

Russell Wilson vs. Colin Kaepernick

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

College Football DFS Main Slate: Week 11

Welcome to college football DFS for Week 11 and another main slate take down. This is your one stop shop for Cash and GPP plays for the main slate of this crazy CFB weekend! If you’ve been following along this season, we’ve had some crazy high hit rates on our

Read More

Week 10 Yahoo! DFS Picks

Identifying my Week 10 NFL DFS picks was easier than it’s ever been thanks to the continued work of our apps development team. The NFL Stat Explorer, the DFS Lineup Optimizer, and our world-famous Game Splits App are three windows I never close on my screen. Let’s build a plan

Read More

Week 10 Primetime Slate DFS Breakdown

Who are the best plays for the Week 10 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1 DSF Week 10 Primetime Slate DFS Week 10 Primetime Slate theory thoughts: The games on this slate might not have “shootout”

Read More

Week 11 Waiver Wire Advice: Top Targets At Each Position

Looking for Week 10 waiver wire advice for fantasy football? You’ve come to the right place. We’ll give you some of the top targets at each position so that when you submit a waiver claim, you do it with confidence. This article will run through the top players available in

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.