Since Blake Bortles took over the starting job, here are Robinson’s weekly PPR positional finishes (and points).
- Week 3 – 26 (14.9)
- Week 4 – 48 (8.8)
- Week 5 – 37 (10.1)
- Week 6 – 29 (14.8)
- Season – 39 (61.1)
For the season, Robinson has just 8 fewer PPR points than fellow rookies Sammy Watkins and Brandin Cooks. And yet, no buzz. On a per-snap basis, Robinson is fourth among all wide receivers1 in target percentage, getting a look on 23.4 percent of his snaps. Here’s the kicker: he currently ranks 84th in snaps/game and 64th in percent of snaps played. Think he’s likely to play a higher volume of snaps going forward? Me too. Since getting his first start in Week 3, Robinson is tied for seventh in the NFL with 37 targets and tied for sixth with 25 receptions. So, a solid WR3 based on recent production, with positive indicators going forward? Where do I sign up?
Not only should Robinson be a player of interest for the rest of this season, but there are dynasty implications here as well. Let’s check in on the 2014 rookie wide receivers.
Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Marqise Lee all show up. Hurns probably isn’t a long term fantasy star, but he’s certainly shown the ability to be a useful contributor. The jury is still out on Lee as well, but I think it’s safe to say that Jacksonville has a very promising WR corps. So…Blake Bortles anyone? He’s playing better than Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr, not to mention Johnny Manziel. Looking back at the quarterbacks drafted in 2013 and 2014 you could make a good argument for Bortles having the best outlook. Second year QBs Geno Smith and EJ Manuel are on the ropes, while Mike Glennon is probably the most accomplished. In other words, the Jacksonville offense may be a good place to look for next year’s dynasty breakout players.
Speaking of Glennon, another week, another good fantasy performance. He’s now got three straight weeks of throwing two TD passes. He’s also posted 18, 16, and 18.5 fantasy points in those three games. Best of all has been his salutary affect on Vincent Jackson. Jackson failed to reach 10 PPR points in Weeks 1 through 3. Since then he’s posted 12.2, 22.4, and 10.6. After their bye this week, the Buccaneers get Minnesota followed by cream puffs Cleveland, Atlanta, Washington, and Chicago. In addition to considering Glennon a streaming option, feel good about Jackson as well. Here’s how Jackson has played with and without Glennon since the beginning of last season.
There’s not a big difference except for the TD issue. Jackson has nine TDs in 16 games with Glennon; no TDs in five games without him. I’ll take it, and so should you.
Though six games, the Detroit @Lions defense has given up just 82 points. The fewest amount of points by any NFL team since 1970.
— Nate Williams (@NateWilliamsFS) October 13, 2014
Hey, whaddaya know. The Lions finally got good on defense, and now their offense is sputtering. Be that as it may, there’s no denying that their defense is very good. They were stout against the run last year, and are stout all around this year. They’ve yet to allow 300 yards passing, 100 yards rushing, or 100 yards receiving to any player. They’re surrendering a league-low 4.48 yards/play, and have surrendered the lowest percentage of first downs. They also lead the league in sacks and are seventh in turnover percentage. Up next? The New Orleans Saints, minus Jimmy Graham. Since 2011, here’s how Brees has performed on the road against top 10 pass defenses.
Okay so he’s still really good. But not as good. Combined with the loss of Graham, this might be the week to fade Brees and the rest of the Saints skill players.
- More than 20 snaps/game. (back)