2016 Bowl Prospect Preview: Mack Hollins, WR, North Carolina

The University of North Carolina Tar Heels will take on the Baylor University Bears on Tueday December 29th in the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando Florida. The game will feature a slew of possible NFL draft prospects. One of the lesser known prospects, Junior WR Mack Hollins, will be taking the field for the Tar Heels. Let’s take a look at his draft profile.

Player Background

Hollins is only a junior, but is already 22. He spent a year out of football after high school before walking on and redshirting at UNC in 2012. His first real college production came in his age 21 season, which is not ideal. He does have excellent size, listed at 6 – 4 and 210 pounds. Since he has such limited experience at an advanced age, the combine will be critical to Hollins’ draft position. If he is able to test well, the size and combine numbers will entice a team to draft him.1

Production

Hollins led the 2015 ACC Runner-Up Tar Heels in receiving yards with 711 as well as receiving touchdowns with eight. The receiving corps for UNC was rather deep this past season. For this reason the ball was spread around quite a bit as no receiver saw more than 21 percent of the teams receiving targets. Hollins came in at fourth on the list at 12.9 percent target share and 46 total targets. Hollins was able to produce 20.7 percent of the team receiving yards as well as 28.6 percent of the team’s receiving touchdowns. The market share numbers themselves are not that impressive as it works out to just a 24.7 Dominator Rating. However, it is very encouraging to see that kind of DR on just 12.9 percent target share. His 25.4 yards per reception led all of Division One by almost three full yards which is obviously one of the bigger stats that pops out at you. It also indicates that he has speed to separate downfield. Another eye popping stat is that he scored eight touchdowns on just those 46 targets for a touchdown rate of 17.4! Seventeen-point-four. Granted three of those touchdowns came in one game where went for 3/103/3, nonetheless a 17.4 touchdown rate is rare.

Despite the bland raw stats, the reception average and TD rate are pretty enticing. Here is a list of all players since 2000 to average 25 yards per reception and score eight touchdowns.

Player Year School Rec Yards Avg TD
Devin Smith 2014 Ohio State 33 931 28.2 12
Brennan Marion 2007 Tulsa 39 1244 31.9 11
Doug Gabriel 2001 Central Florida 22 632 28.7 9
Mack Hollins 2015 North Carolina 28 711 25.4 8
Brennan Marion 2008 Tulsa 43 1112 25.9 8
Terry Moss 2006 Ball State 27 685 25.4 8
Demaryius Thomas 2009 Georgia Tech 46 1154 25.1 8

Obviously, the two most prominent names on the list are Demaryius Thomas and Devin Smith. Hollins is definitely not Thomas. Devin Smith is an interesting comp as the two are a lot different physically, but the production similarities are there.

Player Targets Rec Yards MSYard Yard/Target Yard/Rec TD MSTD TDRT
Devin Smith

45

33

931

25.1

20.7

28.2

12

28.6

26.7

Mack Hollins

46

28

711

20.7

15.4

25.4

8

28.6

17.4

Smith seems like the slightly better prospect, and after a strong combine, he was taken with the fifth pick of the second round. That seems lofty for Hollins, but it will be interesting to see what happens when his workout numbers come in. Jon Moore discussed Smith and the Craziest Stat of 2015 last draft season in reference to Smith’s 20.7 yards per target. Moore detailed a list of top 100 receivers by their final season yards per target numbers. On that list, Hollins would rank second only behind Smith.

The Takeaway

Hollins can return to UNC for his senior year but he may get dinged for playing his final season at 23. As of the most recent update, Hollins was not listed amongst the 44 WRs listed in the RotoViz scouting Index while one of his teammates, Quinshad Davis, came in at 35. Hollins outproduced Davis despite Davis receiving much more opportunity with 74 targets (20.7 percent target share). Hollins isn’t getting much buzz as of now, but with good workouts he could shoot up draft boards as teams love a big bodied receivers with speed and athleticism. Hollins could end up being a steal on NFL draft day and in your dynasty drafts next summer.

  1. Hell, Vince Mayle didn’t even test well and was drafted in the fourth round.  (back)
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