The DraftKings NFL cash plays from The Fantasy Football Ghost have been dominating the competition. Find out which players he’s targeting in Week 7!
Week 6 was another strong week for the players I highlighted in this column. The DraftKings NFL cash plays I featured in Week 6 averaged a 4.3 times return on their price which makes last week the best performance of the year thus far. That average is excluding Dalvin Cook, who I highlighted, but who ended up sitting out the game due to his injury not healing as well as was hoped. If you decided to play the next Viking running back in line, Latavius Murray, who had a price tag of $4,700, his return on investment was a whopping 5.5 times value and would have actually increased the overall return of the highlighted players up to a jaw-dropping 4.6 times value! That’s the kind of actionable advice RotoViz prides itself on. Let’s keep the train moving into Week 7.
As a reminder, I will put forth a few players each week that I think you should work into your DraftKings NFL cash line ups. Some weeks I might only have a single player at a position, the next week I may have three, it is all going to depend on the strength of the slate, the values present on a given week and the match ups. The following week I will recap how my picks fared. A successful week will be determined by the players I suggest averaging 2.5 times their value, while an unsuccessful week will be an average under 2.5 times value.
DraftKings NFL Cash Plays for Week 7
Jared Goff – $6,600
I think this is the lowest I’ve seen the top-priced quarterback on a main slate this year. At $6,600, Goff should find his way into a great number of lineups this weekend. His match up against San Francisco pits him against the league’s sixth-most porous defense against fantasy quarterbacks and the third-worst defense on this slate. According to Dave Caban’s Weekly Stat Explorer, the 49ers are allowing an average of 292 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in addition to 2.3 passing touchdowns surrendered per game, for an average of 21.8 fantasy points per game as you can see below:
If Goff simply performed at the average of QBs facing SF that total alone would produce a multiplier of 3.3 times value, but Goff has been anything but average this year. He is ranked among the top 10 quarterbacks in Passing Yards, Passing Touchdowns and Quarterback Rating.
Speaking of quarterback rating, San Francisco is allowing the eighth-highest rating through the first third of the season. That’s not all, while the 49ers defense is exploitable through the air, the Rams are pretty adept in their own right for doing just that, ranking sixth in passing yards per game. Goff might be without Cooper Kupp but I don’t expect that to slow him down too much.
Joe Flacco vs. New Orleans – Not many people want to play Flacco in cash games but this week it could pay off nicely. The Saints are allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-most passing yards. It might be time to go wacko for Flacco.
Sam Darnold vs. Minnesota – This isn’t the Vikings defense we’ve become used to over the past few years. Darnold will square off against a Minnesota defense that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and has the fifth-highest opposing quarterback rating allowed. Darnold’s price tag of $4,900 also makes him a really nice value play for those cash-strapped lineups.
LeSean McCoy – $5,700
I’ll be honest, it is really bleak out there for running backs this week. Many of the best matchups simply aren’t on this slate and those matchups that are a bit interesting feature running backs that have fallen a bit flat thus far in the season. Therefore, while the following statistics might not sound all that compelling, they are the best of a bad situation that this slate presents. McCoy’s opponent, the Colts, are allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, but the sixth-most on this slate. Indianapolis is also allowing the eighth-most rushing yards allowed in the league, but the fourth-most of the teams available. Buffalo, on the other hand, is gaining fifth-most rushing yards in the league. While there are more expensive options, McCoy is also expected to be heavily depended on to shoulder the load with Josh Allen injured and the Bills being forced to rely on Derek Anderson.
Other Running Backs:
Todd Gurley vs. San Francisco – Gurley would have been my first choice to feature but I could sense my those reading this piece shaking their heads as I talk up two Rams back-to-back. However, the 49ers are allowing fifth-most fantasy points of those teams on this slate. The Rams are also gaining the seventh-most rushing yards in the league and the second-most rushing touchdowns. While it is out of the norm to stack a quarterback and running back from the same team, this could be a time for the exception rather than the rule.
Kerryon Johnson vs. Miami – This could be a pick ‘em between Kenyon Drake and Johnson who will face off against each other in this game. Neither is particularly amazing thus far, but Johnson has a small edge in this matchup. Miami is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and are allowing 110 rushing yards per game with0.8 rushing touchdowns allowed. This game could be ugly but both running backs should outpace their season-long averages.
Jarvis Landry – $7,300
Landry has been a disappointment for the Browns this season, but his opponent Tampa Bay has been absolutely bleeding fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Buccaneers are allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position, due in large part to surrendering the second-most passing yards and most passing touchdowns. Tampa Bay is also allowing an average of 9.3 yards per target to the position, the fifth-most in the league. Landry, meanwhile, has been targeted by his quarterback 66 times, the sixth-most of all wide receivers in the league. He also is ranked tenth among wide receiver for Air Yards and eighth for red zone targets. With the Browns juggling wide receivers behind him all season, Landry’s opportunity is about as dependable as it gets. Look for his production to finally match that opportunity against the Bucs.
Other Wide Receivers:
John Brown vs. New Orleans – A huge reason for me mentioning Flacco earlier is tied to Brown. The Saints are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and the yards allowed per target are also the worst in the league. Brown should be a player you take a very close look at this weekend.
Julian Edelman vs. Chicago – Edelman looked like his old self last weekend despite missing the first four games of the season. He faces a Bears defense that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Chicago is also allowing 9.6 yards per target to wide receivers, the second-highest average in the league.
Zach Ertz – $7,100
Do not over think this one. Sometimes the best option really is just that, the best option. Ertz will square off against a Panthers defense that is tailor-made for him to explode. Carolina is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, but the third-most on this slate. The Panthers are also allowing a touchdown per 12.6 targets to the position, the eighth-highest rate in the league and a touchdown every 9.3 receptions secured by tight ends, the sixth-highest rate in the league. Tight ends have seen 39 percent of all of the Eagles’ passes, the highest-target rate in the NFL. Ertz, as you might imagine, leads all tight ends in fantasy points, points per game, targets, receptions, and yards.
Other Tight Ends:
David Njoku vs. Tampa Bay – Njoku gets his first mention of the season in this column with an excellent matchup against the Buccaneers before him. Tampa Bay is allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing tight ends and the most yards per target to the position as well. The Buccaneers have also exhibited some severe issues in stopping passes thrown to opposing tight ends with 81.8 percent of all targets being converted into receptions, the highest percentage of any defense in the league. There’s some hidden value to be had here.
Chris Herndon vs. Minnesota – Fresh off his biggest performance of the year, Herndon faces a Minnesota defense that is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and the fourth-most on the slate. The Vikings are allowing 10.4 yards per target to the position, the fourth-highest average in the league.
This slate is a bit on the ugly side if I’m being honest with you. I personally don’t feel the same level of confidence in this week as I have in prior weeks. There just seems like too many bad matchups for great players and great matchups for unreliable players. That said, good luck to everyone as always, and follow me on Twitter at @TheFFGhost so you can easily send any questions you have my way.