The Tour converges between China and Mississippi in the middle of the desert at TPC Summerlin in Nevada this weekend. For a more in-depth look at the course and which stats we’re targeting this week check out yesterday’s article.
We have a larger field this week and there’s a cut before the weekend, so we’re going to pay attention to ownership and cut equity so we can put ourselves in position for a winning week again.
Checking the Chalk
At the time of this writing, it looks like Tony Finau ($11,300) and Webb Simpson ($10,300) would be my guess for highest owned golfers around $10,000. Finau is coming back over from China where he just missed out on a victory at the WGC HSBC Champions last week. It’s been a bit longer since we’ve seen Simpson, but he finished the season strong. In his last five events, he had three finishes inside of the top six. In that timeframe, he carded 15 of 20 rounds in the 60s. Webb has also broken 100 DK points on three separate occasions at this course. There will be a larger piece about this in the near future here, but the point expectation difference between chalky and expensive ($10,000-plus) golfers and low owned, expensive golfers is paper thin. There’s almost always a case to be made for fading the expensive chalk.
As we go through the mid-tier of salary, it’s a bit of a different story. On the one hand, you have the $9,000 range which should have relatively flat ownership. Patrick Cantlay ($9,900), Gary Woodland ($9,700), Aaron Wise ($9,400), and Cameron Champ ($9,200) are all right next to each other. On the other hand, the $8,000 range has a front-runner for high ownership in Scott Piercy ($8,100). He’s scored at least 75 DK points in 5 of 8 starts at TPC Summerlin, which may have something to do with it.
Once we get below $8,000 there are a couple more options who could see high ownership. Sam Burns ($7,600) is a popular name circulating the Twittersphere and Toutsphere this week. He had a 20th place finish here last year. Alex Cejka ($6,900) and J.J. Spaun ($6,900) are also getting some buzz and could potentially get chalky as the week progresses. Cejka has been runner-up here two of the past three years and has scored at least 80 DK points in 5 of 7 starts. Spaun has a 10th place finish here and is coming off of a 10th place finish at the CJ Cup a couple of weeks ago.
Make sure you check out the ownership projections below as they’ll be updated all the way up to lock on Thursday morning as the ownership landscape takes shape.
If you’re pivoting away from the chalk options up top, Rickie Fowler ($11,400) makes sense for a few reasons. He fought through an oblique injury down the stretch through the playoffs to finish in the top ten in both the BMW Championship and Tour Championship. During those two starts he hit at least two-thirds of greens in regulation and over 60 percent of fairways. Fowler’s last five events have resulted in 12 rounds in the 60s. In his career, he’s been remarkably consistent across different types of courses, but he does have a slightly higher ceiling on par 71s. We’ve also seen that the most expensive golfer when alongside multiple elite options, can be had at an ownership discount.
Cameron Champ is getting talked up quite a bit this week after his win. The first run of projections I ran has Champ at 14.4%, but I’m not entirely sure it gets that high. He’ll clear double digits pretty easily, I’d think. But, a lot of the buzz that typically points to higher ownership for a golfer might not turn into that ownership on a lesser-known entity like Champ. The lower owned options in that range are going to be Chesson Hadley ($9,300) and Matt Kuchar ($9,100) even though they might not be too enticing. Hadley has underperformed salary expectations in 4 of 5 starts and wasn’t able to break 70 during the CJ Cup a few weeks ago, while Kuchar hasn’t finished in the top 25 of a tournament since the first week in August.
Even with guys like Scott Piercy ($8,100), Sam Ryder ($7,600), and Sam Burns ($7,600) soaking up a chunk of ownership in the value tier, it looks ownership should be pretty flat throughout the other options. Kevin Tway ($7,300) and Rory Sabbatini ($7,400) are in play for their par-5 scoring alone. Sabbatini actually performs best on par 71s over the past two seasons.
But another guy worth taking note of is Dylan Meyer ($7,300) at his price. It was a weaker field, but a 93 point performance is worth consideration. He went 8-under on the par 5s last week at CC of Jackson. Including his recent Web.com events, he’s hit at least two-thirds of greens in regulation in six straight events.
If you aren’t willing to eat the Cejka and Spaun chalk down low, Carlos Ortiz ($6,800) is an interesting name to watch. Fresh off his graduation from the Web.com Tour and just put up a top-three finish last week. He scored 109 DK point on the back of three rounds in the 60s while hitting 72 percent of greens in regulation.
|Si Woo Kim||7500||4.9|
|Meen Whee Kim||7100||2.9|
|Jose De Jesus Rodriguez||6100||0.4|
|Davis Love III||6200||0.2|