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Week 11 Waiver Wire Advice

RotoViz provides advice on players to target and fade on your fantasy football waiver wire.

Week 11 Waiver Wire Advice

I’ll present players by positional tiers, from most desirable to acquire (1) to least (3). Availability in ESPN leagues is shown in parentheses.

Quarterbacks – Tier 2 – Worth a Bid

Check out Giana Pacinelli’s weekly Streaming QB column for more advice.

Dak Prescott (70%) – After a slow start, Prescott has gone over 20 points in four straight games, and five of six.

Blake Bortles (80%) – After awful performances in Weeks 6 and 7, Bortles now has back-to-back 20 point outings.

Both Prescott and Bortles have top-10 schedules for the rest of the season.

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On a week-to-week basis, you’ll find specific picks and projections in Giana’s article.

Running Backs – Tier 2 – Worth a Bid

I don’t think there are any slam-dunk, season-making backs available this week. There are a number of decent players available, each with a few pros and cons. I think all should be rostered in most leagues, so make a few modest bids across your favorites.

Theo Riddick (80%) – Riddick has 15 targets in the past two weeks. Over those same two weeks, only six backs have had a more valuable receiving workload. Kerryon Johnson is clearly the lead back, but Riddick has been earning standalone value as a receiver.

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Duke Johnson (30%) – Johnson now has consecutive double-digit performances. Over the first seven weeks of the season, Johnson averaged 5.5 receiving expected points per game. Since Week 8, he’s averaging nine receiving expected points per game. download (12)That’s a useful amount of work. On the other hand, Cleveland has a bye, and then the seventh-worst RB schedule for the rest of the season.

Doug Martin (46%) and Jalen Richard (50%) – Last week I said both Oakland backs should get enough work to be useful. For one week at least, that held true. Over the past three weeks, Oakland’s backfield has settled into comfortable roles.download (13)

Similarly valuable workloads, but I still think Richard has more upside, given the game scripts Oakland will likely face.

Mike Davis (54%) and Rashaad Penny (87%) – Both players had great performances in Week 10. Seattle is a run-heavy team and also has the best fantasy RB schedule in Weeks 15 and 16. On the other hand, Chris Carson will return at some point, and then this could be an indecipherable three-way committee.

I still prefer Davis, who was clearly preferred to Penny in the passing game. It’s also unlikely Penny sustains that level of efficiency as a rusher.

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In fact, on a per-game basis for the season, Davis has the most balanced workload in Seattle.

seas

Derrick Henry (48%) – Henry is worth a one-week look if you need a spot start. He’s TD dependent for scoring but gets the best matchup of the week. Indianapolis has surrendered six performances of 18 points or more to RBs. They’ve also given up 10 or more points to two RBs on the same team a total of five times.

Player Team PPR
 Wendell Smallwood PHI 18.1
 Corey Clement PHI 10.5
 Jalen Richard OAK 14.4
 Doug Martin OAK 10.9
 James White NE 23.7
 Sony Michel NE 18
 Leonard Fournette JAC 27.9
 T.J. Yeldon JAC 11.3
 Chris Ivory BUF 13.6
 Marcus Murphy BUF 12

It wouldn’t be surprising for both Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry to have usable performances in Week 11. Outside of such clearly favorable situations, however, I’m not interested in Henry.

Running Backs – Tier 3 – Sure, why not?

Pinch your nose and make a small bid for depth.

Frank Gore (67%) – As long as Miami keeps rolling him out there, he may as well be on your bench. He’s got double-digit carries in seven consecutive games and went over 50 yards in five of them. It’s not much, but it’s probably nearly free.

Giovani Bernard (67%) – He’s returned to action in case you hadn’t noticed. At the moment he’s just a handcuff but has demonstrable big game upside if Joe Mixon misses time.

Wide Receivers – Tier 1 – Could be starters

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (35%) – His double-digit points-per-game streak is now at five. Geronimo Allison is out indefinitely and Randall Cobb missed Week 10. On a per-game basis over the past five games, Valdes-Scantling has been the best non-Davante Adams WR in Green Bay. My top pick if he’s available.

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Tyler Lockett (31%) – Over the past three games, Lockett and Doug Baldwin have gotten similar workloads, but Lockett has been far more productive.

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Seattle has the fifth-best fantasy WR schedule for the rest of the season, that features only one negative matchup (Minnesota, Week 14).

Donte Moncrief (85%) – Here’s how Jacksonville’s WR usage has changed over the course of the season.

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Over the first four weeks, Moncrief had the fewest expected points and targets per game. Since Week 5, he’s averaging the most. It looks like Keelan Cole is being phased out — he wasn’t targeted in Week 10 — meaning some more work could be available to Moncrief soon. Jacksonville also has a top-10 schedule over the rest of the season.

Wide Receivers – Tier 2 – Potential!

Guys that could be spot starters, with potential to be more.

Corey Davis (32%) – Now has consecutive double-digit games, but Tennessee is 31st in pass attempts. He’s only 15th in targets among all WRs, and that’s not likely to improve.

Chris Godwin (58%) – He’s been written up in this column before. He’s got a steady and usable role and has been running neck and neck with DeSean Jackson all season in terms of usage.

download (21)Last week Godwin finally got the better of Jackson in terms of efficiency.download (20)

Josh Reynolds (99%) – Cooper Kupp vacates seven targets and nearly 12 receiving expected points per game. Reynolds won’t get all of that, and may not even get enough to be useful. But it’s a sizable chunk of opportunity on a very good offense. Reynolds only has 12 targets this season, but only one other WR not named Kupp, Woods, or Cooks, has more than three. I’m willing to make a modest bid to see if Reynolds can be the next Valdes-Scantling.

Wide Receivers – Tier 3 – There’s so many…

Players with favorable rest of season fantasy schedules.

Dede Westbrook (70%) – Steady usage with a favorable schedule. Cole’s fall from grace may help Westbrook too.

Mohamed Sanu (45%) – Capable of putting up useful stat lines on his own, with two paths to more usage, and a favorable schedule.

Josh Doctson (83%) and Maurice Harris (90%) – Jamison Crowder’s absence makes Harris a viable player, but that should change when Crowder’s back.

Tight Ends – Tier 1 – Modest bid

Check out Neil Dutton’s weekly tight end column for more advice.

Vance McDonald (53%) and Jesse James (90%)  Amont all TEs with 40 or more receiving expected points on the season, Jesse James and McDonald rank third and fifth in points over expectation per target. Not surprisingly, James and McDonald are Ben Roethlisberger’s most efficient targets.

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McDonald has more big games, (four over 10 points) so he’d be my choice.

Tight Ends – Tier 2 – Meh

C.J. Uzomah (75%) – Uzomah has the best rest of season TE schedule. download (22)On the other hand, he’s only cleared four targets in a game once all season.

Geoff Swaim (92%) – He missed some time with injury but had been one of Dallas’ better receivers. Of course, that was before Amari Cooper arrived too.

Jonnu Smith (99%) – Smith has a TD in consecutive games, although he only earned five total targets.

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