AAF Daily Fantasy sports is in full gear as we now approach the second half of the regular season. Each week I’ll be running through some of the top plays, stacks to target, and a few punts to consider when building DFS lineups at Fanball. Let’s dive into Week 7 AAF DFS!
Target Running Backs with Volume
Last week we saw the return of bell cow Trent Richardson ($7,800). Richardson played on 81 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, piling up 23 total touches while scoring on the ground and through the air. His weekly work as a receiving back (five-straight weeks with at least five targets) provides a cash-game floor, but it’s his red-zone work and touchdown potential that provides a tournament-winning ceiling. He’s scored at least one rushing touchdown in every single week so far. Find a way to pay up for him this week against Memphis, who has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Over the past three weeks, it’s hard to deny the production that Atlanta’s Tarean Folston ($5,600) has put up through the air. His receiving stat lines are as follows: 5-66-0, 6-23-1, and 5-8-1. On a full PPR site, that provides some massive swings in Folston’s favor as a low-end RB1 at an affordable price. Atlanta’s squad needs a lot of improvements. Only Memphis has fewer wins than Atlanta, and no team has a worse score differential than the Legends.
|Team||Record||Pts For||Pts Allowed||Differential|
That being said, negative gamescript and receptions out of the backfield have been Atlanta’s modus operandi while down in games. Currently 8.5-point home dogs playing against the league’s best team (Orlando Apollos, 5-1), I think we can expect Folston’s receiving work to continue into Week 7.
It might feel like chasing with Jhurrell Pressley ($5,400) after his two-touchdown performance, but the Hotshots’ lead back has been one of the more consistent, heavily utilized running backs so far this season. He leads the AAF in rushing yards (343) and has seen double-digit touches in every game this year. Over their last two games, they allowed big fantasy outings to Richardson (28.0 fantasy points) and Joel Bouagnon (18.2). Playing as 3.5-point home favorites, Pressley should be in line for a significant number of touches in positive gamescript.
Chase the Targets at Wide Receiver
The perennial RotoViz moniker, targets are the lifeblood of fantasy, applies to the AAF just as much as the NFL.
After a middling performance that was bailed out by a touchdown, I can’t think of a better week to go back to Orlando’s Charles Johnson ($7,700). Johnson’s stat line of 4-28-1 didn’t quite live up to his $8K billing last week, but the important thing to chase is the volume that Johnson’s been seeing. He’s seen target totals of 11, 10, 12, 5, and 10 over the past five weeks. He leads the league in both receptions (33) and receiving yards (521). Johnson squares off against the lowly Legends this week, where he put up a modest 4-60-0 stat line against them in Week 1. Orlando’s passing game has certainly been building chemistry since then, and I have no problems making Johnson a centerpiece of tournament builds this week.
Arizona’s Rashad Ross ($7,100) continues to be one of the premiere pay-up wideouts largely due to his consistency scoring touchdowns. Ross missed pay dirt for the first time last week, but continues to lead all receivers with six touchdowns through the first six weeks of the season. He trails only Johnson in receiving yards while leading all wideouts in both market share of air yards (39 percent) and fantasy points (19.4 per game). He’s a strong cash and tournament option this week against San Diego, who is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Mekale McKay ($6,400) presents an affordable wide receiver option with the potential to finish the week as the top-scoring wideout. He leads all receivers in red-zone targets (11) and now scored in three of his last four games. Averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game, McKay draws a soft matchup against Salt Lake’s secondary, who has allowed the most receptions to opposing receivers so far this season. Reece Horn (8-129-0), Dontez Ford (3-94-0), and Charles Johnson (9-105-0) all had double-digit fantasy outings against Salt Lake over the past three weeks.
Stacks to Target
Garrett Gilbert ($6,800) and D’Ernest Johnson ($5,300)
We went with this stack last week and it paid off rather well, combining for 33.2 fantasy points despite Johnson not reaching the end zone. Fanball reduced the price of both players this week, saving you a total of $700, despite the Apollos entering an even more favorable matchup this week against Atlanta. Vegas has this matchup as the highest-scoring game of the week at 42 points currently, with Orlando an 8.5-point road favorite. Gilbert continues to lead the league in every meaningful statistic, and has paid off week-to-week despite continuously being a massive favorite. We could easily see him tear apart this poor Atlanta secondary for the first half and then let Johnson hammer home the victory on the ground. The Legends have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, spearheaded by their nine rushing touchdowns allowed. That’s three more than the next-closest team. Johnson also provides quality reception upside after seeing six targets in back-to-back games.
John Wolford ($5,900) and Rashad Ross ($7,100)
Through six weeks of AAF it’s been unanimous that Gilbert is the QB1. While we’ve seen others start to step forward, the most consistent quarterback behind him has arguably been Wolford. I love rostering him this week at almost a $1,000-dollar discount in what projects to be an arguably easier matchup than Orlando’s. San Diego’s pass defense has allowed 300-plus passing yards in consecutive games and a total of four passing touchdowns and two passing two-point conversions during that span. They’ve allowed the most completions and the most passing yards on the season to date. Stacking Wolford with his main target in Ross is a no-brainer when you see his 24 percent target share. Running 94 percent of his routes from the slot, Ross will run most of his routes against CB Xavier Coleman. Coleman has allowed a 76 percent catch rate, highest among qualifying starters in coverage.
Punts ($5K and below)
Memphis wide receiver Daniel Williams ($4,900) not only received his first AAF reception last week, he saw seven of them on 11 targets! Williams finished with a 7-70-0 stat line and led the Express in targets over teammate Reece Horn (10). Johnny Manziel was picked up by Memphis this week and while there’s quarterback uncertainty on exactly who will be taking snaps under center this week, it looks like Williams will be one of the key cogs in this passing attack after last week’s outburst.
I mentioned an Arizona stack above, and if you believe in Wolford like I do, I see nothing wrong with adding a punt like Richard Mullaney ($4,400) to the stack. Mullaney showed us that the wait for his return was worth it. After a three-week injury hiatus, Mullaney returned to the starting lineup and saw seven targets against Orlando last week. Finishing with a 6-73-0 stat line, Mullaney was the fantasy WR7 without reaching the end zone. He’ll square off this week against a San Diego secondary that just allowed 377 passing yards and three passing touchdowns to their opponent last week.
Going through game logs, I was surprised at how consistently San Antonio was able to score points (third-most in the league). For whatever reason, Greg Ward Jr. ($3,800) continues to be an afterthought in this offense, averaging just 4.8 targets per game. That being said, where they are targeting Ward — in the red zone — makes him an intriguing GPP punt. Ward currently ranks second in the league in red-zone targets, trailing only Mekale McKay (11 to nine). With San Antonio frequently getting in scoring position, it could just be variance that Ward hasn’t yet hit pay dirt despite seeing at least one red-zone target in every game this season. If Ward is finally able to finally capitalize on one (or more) of these valuable looks, he could pay off in spades at just $3.8K.