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RotoViz NFL Draft Live Reactions — Day 2

 

The RotoViz Slack chat is the place to be when it comes to in-depth, instant, and astute analysis of developing NFL news and events. For years, it’s been the first place I turned when I wanted intelligent, measured reactions anytime anything goes down. And while that’s great if you’re a RotoViz contributor, it’s always been off limits for the general public — until tonight.

For the first time ever, we’re pulling back the curtains and giving you a pipeline to the best analysis from some of the brightest minds in fantasy football. No waiting for an article to drop — our team is standing by throughout the NFL Draft ready to drop their takes, hot or not, on every significant development.

We’ll be updating this piece throughout tonight, so be sure to check back or refresh for updates.

Round 2

Where are the WRs?

Once consistently mocked to the Bills at ninth overall, DK Metcalf continues to slide, along with the rest of a deep WR class. It’s a development that could shake up rookie drafts.

Deebo Goes Over Metcalf

It turns out that it wasn’t Metcalf – or even AJ Brown or Hakeem Butler – to be the first WR to go in Round 2. Much like they did last year with Dante Pettis, the 49ers passed on superior on-paper prospects, this time to take Deebo Samuel.

It’s no surprise that we’re surprised. Samuels is a distant 10th in our WR rankings, and his ADP is miles behind that of Metcalf and Butler.

 

Maybe Kyle Shannahan has a RotoViz subscription and has been tooling around with the Box Score Scout, because his comparables look extremely encouraging.

The contrarians among us wonder if Samuel might even be good enough to pose a threat to the current TE2.

Broncos Get Their QB

After taking a pass in a strong 2018 QB class, then again passing on Dwayne Haskins with the 10th pick last night, the Broncos finally drafted a QB, taking Drew Lock 42nd overall.

Jordan Hoover dives deeper into Lock’s intriguing college profile here, and at 6-foot-5, there is no doubt he was on John Elway’s radar.

To be clear, Mr. Marin means that as a good thing. The suggestion being that he could be a solid, if unspectacular, starter in this league for several years. And at the relatively young age of 22, he also has youth working in his favor.

Vikings Take a TE to Replace Rudolph

The Vikings take TE Irv Smith with the 50th-overall pick, and it either spells the end of the Kyle Rudolph regime or makes him a bargain in redraft, depending on your perspective.

Smith may need to find the end zone to make an impact as a professional, but that’s something he was exceptionally good at in college, scoring 10 times in his final two seasons.

Games Receptions Yards YPR TDs
2016 8 0 0 0 0
2017 9 14 128 9.1 3
2018 13 38 648 17.1 7
Total 30 52 776 14.9 10

Titans End the A.J. Brown Slide

Considered by many smart mockers as a late first-round pick, A.J. Brown fell all the way to 51st overall, where the Titans decided to add him to the arsenal.

The pessimism is not so much due to Brown himself. After all, he put up 2,572 yards over his final two seasons. The problem lies with the Titans.

  • In 2015, Marcus Mariota’s first season, Tennessee WRs finished second-last in expected fantasy points
  • The next year, second last again
  • The next year, fifth last
  • And last year, under yet another new coaching staff, their WRs ranked last in expected points

Eagles Loading up on RBs

After acquiring Jordan Howard in the offseason, Philadelphia continues to spend at RB, taking Miles Sanders 53rd overall.

Sanders scored second in the RB Prospect Lab, but that’s not saying much in this weak class.

Mecole Hardman Over D.K. Metcalf

The bottom has fallen out for Metcalf. Had the Chiefs picked the athletic wonder, he would have suddenly been in the conversation for the 1.01 rookie pick. Instead, it’s Mecole Hardman. Here is our seasoned and measure analysis on the selection:

 

Hardman’s comps leave plenty to be desired according to the Box Score Scout.

Eagles, Chiefs Keep the WR Run Going

With the following pick, the Eagles select J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, and the fellas are fans.

At 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, the Spanish-born Arcega-Whiteside’s has the size, and while his numbers were far from flashy, he did have a 35% market share in 2017. And the BSS suggests that elite production is within his range of outcomes.

It’ll be interesting to see how much these two can close the gap on Metcalf in rookie drafts.

Two picks later, the Colts took WR Parris Campbell. Matt Wispe suggested you should grab Campbell in best ball leagues before the draft; and indeed, this is a landing spot that is only going to improve his stock.

Cardinals Trade Josh Rosen for Andy Isabella

The Dolphins traded the 62nd overall pick for Josh Rosen, using it to grab WR Andy Isabella.

Powered by a junior season that saw him notch a .30 Dominator Rating, Isabella’s comps contain some jaw-dropping names.

The Bleeding is Over for D.K. Metcalf

The best size-speed combination in the draft had to wait until the final pick of the second round to find a home, and some are questioning his fit in Seattle.

Metcalf’s BSS comps include other big-bodied WRs who never lived up to the hype, guys like Donte Moncrief, Breshad Perriman, and Laquon Treadwell.

Round 3

The Steelers Have a WR Type

Tyler Buecher points out that the Steelers’ selection of Diontae Johnson appears to be part of a bigger trend.

Unfortunately, it’s more of the Ryan Switzer-Marcus Wheaton type than the Juju Smith-Schuster type.

Most encouragingly for Johnson, he scored a crushing .40 Dominator Rating in his final season.

Committee Coming in Los Angeles?

We like Henderson as a prospect. As recently as a few weeks ago, Jordan Hoover floated the idea that he could vault into the rookie RB1 position with the landing spot. Unfortunately, playing behind a top-three RB isn’t the dream situation.

Some have suggested that spending a third-round pick on an RB is a sign that the Rams are concerned about Todd Gurley’s knee. If you’re not in that camp, find the owner who is.

Others recommend taking more of a long position on Henderson.

Bears Bring in a New Back

With Jordan Howard gone, there was always a good chance the Bears were taking an RB in this draft, and they took Iowa State’s David Montgomery with the 73rd pick. There is plenty of opportunities available in the Windy City, so it’s a great landing spot for him, but perhaps not so much for his new teammate.

Montomgery put up a Philip Lindsay-esq 74 percent of his team’s rushing yards in 2017. And while he does have plenty of holes in his profile, all that could be washed away if the Bears use him in a similar fashion to Howard.

Patriots Expand on RBBC

As if the Patriots RBs weren’t hard enough to sort out on a week-to-week basis, they went ahead on spent a third-round pick on Alabama’s Damien Harris.

While Harris was a very productive runner, he was a near zero in the passing and special teams phases, and he’s not as young as one would like.

 

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