On Friday evening, Curtis Patrick and Shawn Siegele drafted in the 2019 FFPC Main Event. Shawn breaks down all 20 rounds of their draft and discusses the research that led them to their decisions.
We've covered the upcoming fantasy season from every angle, including strategy sessions from the best players in the game. Today, I break down a real draft from one of the first 2019 FFPC Main Events. During the coverage, I look at how you should attack the early rounds, what to do with TE Premium, how to navigate the RB Dead Zone, why we load up on WRs in the middle rounds, and how to pivot to runners in the RB Priority Window.
Curtis and I also provide all of our draft targets on a round-by-round basis and explain the ways our construction reacts to in-draft developments.
Round 1 - 1.04
Targets: Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, David Johnson
When the draft slots were originally announced, Curtis and I were ecstatic to draw a position that would give us access to Kamara. Unfortunately, Ezekiel Elliott refuses to participate, hoping the gamble works out better than Le'Veon Bell's from last season. We had hoped someone would throw a curve ball and select Travis Kelce, but the top-three came off the board as expected.
Johnson is clearly a step down based upon his 2018 work, as we can easily visualize in the Range of Outcomes app.
However, we're betting that his 2019 looks more like the 2016 season, where he was one of only five backs to post double-digit expected points in both rushing and receiving this decade.
Ryan Collinsworth's fantastic series on the changing NFL trends reminds us that the new RB1 has a 50-50 split in scoring between the ground and the air. The Cardinals are expected to run a lot of plays in their air raid offense, and Johnson has again pledged to eclipse 1,000 yards as both a runner and receiver. A top-10 RB schedule will help pave the way.
The Pick: David Johnson
Round 2 - 2.04
The Targets: Tyreek Hill, Todd Gurley, Mike Evans, George Kittle
Barring a surprise fall from Dalvin Cook or Joe Mixon, one of our targets would make it to our selection. With three picks remaining ahead of us, all four were left. Hill, Gurley, and Evans then came off the board in order, leaving us with Kittle.
Selecting elite TEs has always been a central plank to the RotoViz draft strategy. It maximizes your starting lineup by giving you a prohibitive advantage at the TE position, and this tactical decision then amplifies the value of your breakouts at RB and WR. This advantage becomes even more potent with the FFPC's TE-premium scoring. 2017 overall regular season points champion Monty Phan recommends elite-TE in his FFPC Strategy Sessions.
The selection of Kittle also aided our overall construction immensely, as we didn't have to worry about runs, reaching on TE in a format where the position often goes very early, or burning multiple middle-round slots to make sure we had TE covered.
The Pick: George Kittle