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High Staked: Here’s To You, Mr. Robinson

Veteran high stakes fantasy football player Monty Phan chronicles his season.

There are times when I feel like this column may be more useful if I gave waiver wire advice before bidding ends every Wednesday night instead of writing about the aftermath on Thursday. But do you want to know the truth? When it comes to waiver bids, no one really knows anything.

Take this week’s potential waiver savior: Chiefs wide receiver Demarcus Robinson. I added Robinson everywhere I could during the summer when Tyreek Hill faced a potential suspension. Then I dropped him when Hill was cleared to play and I was forced to trim my rosters. Had I written this column before waivers ran, I would have advised to make a moderate bid on Robinson. After all, in Week 1, Sammy Watkins starred. Next week, it could be Mecole Hardman or Watkins again. Or Andy Reid could troll us by rolling out De’Anthony Thomas or some guy that Reid scouted in the Arrowhead Stadium parking lot.

However, judging by the waiver bids I’ve seen, some of you went crazy, all right. In one of my Super Bracket leagues, Robinson went for $555 out of a $1,000 budget to start the year.1 In a Main Event league, he went for $331. But in my other Super Bracket league, he went for a much more reasonable $148. And in my other Main Event league, the Hill owner grabbed Robinson for $1 after Week 1, avoiding the post-Week 2 frenzy altogether.

Around this time last year, Tyler Boyd began his breakout and was also a popular waiver add — one that helped a lot of teams to league titles, including ours. We were able to get him without breaking the bank, but we rarely spend big in the first month of the season. There are differing opinions, of course. Last week, Curtis Patrick recommended spending at least half your budget on John Ross, and Ross came through again with a solid Week 2.

As Shawn Siegele points out, three of the most popular waiver adds this week — Robinson, Marquise Goodwin and Devin Smithwere among the top four in fantasy points over expectation for the week. A high FPOE is typically unsustainable, but it can be an indicator of something more. Or it could mean the player had a lucky week.

PLAYERPPRExpected PointsFantasy Points Over ExpectationReceptionsTargetsYards
Demarcus Robinson35.29.725.566172
Marquise Goodwin16.74.612.13377
Chris Godwin26.114.211.989121
Devin Smith16.44.611.83374
Kenny Golladay25.716.49.3810117
Brandin Cooks16.67.68.83474
Isaiah McKenzie12.43.68.42240
Nelson Agholor24.7177.7811107
Deebo Samuel20.412.96.85787
Tyler Boyd22.215.76.51010122
John Ross21.214.86.448112
Amari Cooper14.48.16.34544
Cole Beasley12.366.34483
Mecole Hardman16.19.96.24661
T.J. Jones12.86.863438
Julio Jones27.621.85.8510106
Parris Campbell8.22.65.61112
Calvin Ridley24.5195.5810105
Christian Kirk17.411.95.568114
Paul Richardson10.65.55.13316
T.Y. Hilton14.39.84.54643
D.K. Metcalf15.111.143761
Chad Beebe7.13.141261
Malik Turner8.44.53.93354
D.J. Chark18.514.93.67955
Emmanuel Sanders28.825.43.4111398
Tre'Quan Smith7.94.53.43349
Chris Conley11.383.34573
Davante Adams17.614.6379106
Geronimo Allison12.59.534525
Cooper Kupp17.614.22.859120
Julian Edelman9.26.42.74451
Phillip Dorsett6.94.22.73339
KeeSean Johnson6.13.52.61231
Tyrell Williams15.613.42.25746
Antonio Brown16.113.52.14856
John Brown14.212.227872
Mike Williams11.39.51.83583
Robert Woods6.23.81.52233
Tajae Sharpe4.42.91.52224
Kenny Stills5.84.61.22338
Adam Thielen12.511.41.15875
Preston Williams10.39.314663
Michael Gallup12.811.90.96868
Chris Hogan2.21.50.71112
Jake Kumerow2.21.50.71112
Dontrelle Inman3.83.20.61228
Stefon Diggs11.511.30.21745
Damiere Byrd10.510.30.26745
Cordarrelle Patterson500000
James Washington4.34.302323
Willie Snead1.51.50115
Dante Pettis0.800000
J.D. McKissic0.200000
Tyler Lockett17.918-0.1101279
Steven Sims Jr.2.91.6-0.3113
Russell Shepard3.94.3-0.42319
Darius Jennings2.12.6-0.51111
Anthony Miller1.21.7-0.5112
Juju Smith-Schuster13.414.1-0.75884
Danny Amendola00.7-0.7010
Marvin Jones9.310.1-0.85643
De'Anthony Thomas1.62.4-0.8116
Michael Thomas18.919.9-1101389
Chester Rogers5.46.4-13424
Allen Hurns2.33.3-11213
Taylor Gabriel3.53.2-1.11211
Adam Humphries23-1.122-1
Deonte Harris0.31.4-1.111-7
A.J. Brown5.56.7-1.23525
Deon Cain01.2-1.2010
Corey Davis6.88.1-1.33538
Donte Moncrief01.5-1.5010
Justin Hardy01.5-1.5010
Johnny Holton01.6-1.6010
Russell Gage01.6-1.6010
Michael Crabtree3.35-1.72313
Allen Robinson8.19.9-1.84741
Cody Latimer68-23530
Cody Core5.87.8-23528
Auden Tate1.63.6-2126
Kendrick Bourne1.43.4-2124
Marquise Brown16.618.7-2.181386
Terry McLaurin17.219.6-2.45962
Alex Erickson2.44.8-2.41314
Miles Boykin2.14.5-2.41311
Will Fuller810.6-2.64740
Trey Quinn7.610.4-2.84736
Travis Benjamin02.8-2.8020
Robert Foster03-3020
DeAndre Hopkins912.1-3.15840
Diontae Johnson2.75.9-3.21417
Keke Coutee2.75.9-3.2247
Mike Evans10.113.4-3.34861
Damion Willis1.64.9-3.3136
Mack Hollins1013.4-3.45850
Josh Gordon3.97.6-3.72519
Randall Cobb8.511.2-3.85624
Zay Jones2.46.2-3.81314
Courtland Sutton812-44740
Marquez Valdes-Scantling4.99.4-4.53619
Richie James1.76.2-4.5147
Ryan Switzer15.7-4.7140
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside1.46.2-4.8144
D.J. Moore17.922.8-4.991489
Jarius Wright3.58.6-5.12615
Mohamed Sanu5.610.8-5.24716
Jakeem Grant4.810.5-5.33722
Hunter Renfrow712.5-5.54830
Larry Fitzgerald15.421-5.6511104
DaeSean Hamilton3.59.1-5.62615
Keenan Allen17.823.5-5.781598
Bennie Fowler12.116.1-651051
Breshad Perriman06.3-6.3040
Dede Westbrook1.37.8-6.5153
Curtis Samuel14.321.4-7.351391
Ryan Grant0.88.2-7.415-2
DeVante Parker09.3-9.3070
Sammy Watkins10.920.5-9.661349

And speaking of lucky, that’s an apt description of our fortunes in both of our Main Event leagues in Week 2. We won both games despite posting mediocre scores of 125 and 115 points, respectively. Our 115-point team won despite starting the injured Drew Brees, the ineffective Ronald Jones and the nearly invisible Jamison Crowder. Brees, who scored less than one point, was still a better option than our backup, who was quarantined for mononucleosis.2

With both of our QBs out of commission, we’ve already begun streaming the position — a strategy I touched on in the offseason when discussing the onesie positions of QB, tight end, defense and kicker. Granted, it’s not something I expected to be doing by Week 3, but there you go. Hopefully, Jimmy Garoppolo scores more than one point.

Image Credit: Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Demarcus Robinson.

  1. The next-highest bid was $440.  (back)
  2. Sam Darnold, in case you didn’t know which NFL quarterback had contracted the kissing disease.  (back)

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