The Fantasy Football Ghost brings us four more players to target in FanDuel cash plays for Week 6!
Week 5 was another mess: traditionally strong teams under-performed such as the Rams, Bears, Chiefs and Cowboys. As such, fantasy outcomes suffered similarly. The players I identified last week only managed to claw to 1.91-times value, again short of the 2.5-times mark we’ve set for ourselves in this column. The major bright spot last week was Tom Brady who carried the day with 3.28-times value with a 24.92-point performance. Meanwhile, the Chargers appear to still be holding a bit of a grudge against Melvin Gordon as he only managed to post 5.8 points which garnered him a measly 0.85 times value on his $6,800 price tag. Let’s get back on the winning track to start the second third of the season with Week 6.
To measure the success of the players I recommend to our RotoViz readers, I will review the players I recommended the prior week and report their value multipliers. I will then calculate the average multiplier across the recommended player pool to give me a barometer of success for that week. My stated goal is to produce an average greater than 2.5-times value. If I achieve that goal, we will consider the week a success.
Much of the data presented in this piece can be found in the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer and Game Level Similarity Projections. I also want to encourage readers to check out the RotoViz NFL Lineup Optimizer so that everyone can squeeze the most value out of their lineups each week.
FanDuel NFL Cash Plays for Week 6
Quarterback: Lamar Jackson ($8,200)
Lamar Jackson is quite an interesting quarterback play, but perhaps not for the reason many may think given his explosive start to the season. Sure, his passing matchup is solid, given that the Bengals are allowing the fifth-best passer rating to opposing quarterbacks with a 109.6 rating. The Ravens meanwhile, due primarily to Jackson, boast an average passer rating of 101.9, good for the eighth-highest rate in the league. However, the huge selling point for Jackson this week is his ability to gain yardage on the ground.
Cincinnati is allowing the second-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season while Jackson is the league’s leading rusher for the quarterback position, averaging 61.6 yards per game. Not only is he the leading quarterback rusher, but he is also the 16th leading rusher this season. For Jackson to hit the 2.5-times value benchmark we’ve set for this column, he would need to get more than 20.5 points. The GLSP places that likelihood at an impressive 64%, making him the quarterback most likely to surpass this value in Week 6.
Running Back: Alvin Kamara ($7,900)
Here is a bit of a surprising statistic for you, Alvin Kamara has yet to notch a 100-plus yard rushing game this season. Actually, he hasn’t even hit 70 yards in any of his last four games either. That slump looks to come to an end on Sunday when he faces off against Jacksonville, the fourth-most generous rushing defense in the league over the past five games, allowing an average of 122 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Over that span, the Jaguars have allowed a league-high 5.6 yards per carry and have allowed an average of one rushing touchdown per game.
Finally, the GLSP tool predicts that Kamara will score the seventh-most fantasy points among all running backs and has a 44% chance of outstripping his value this week. When taken together, he is one of the more dependable options at the position this week and will be prominently featured in several of my FanDuel cash lineups for Week 6.
Wide Receiver: Terry McLaurin ($6,400)
Terry McLaurin started off like a rocket, posting a 21-point outing in his first start but has slowly crept downwards to a 6.6-point performance last week. This decline in production has brought McLaurin’s price back down to reasonable levels, just in time for an excellent matchup against the porous Dolphins. Miami has allowed the second-most receiving yards in the league, averaging 296.2 receiving yards allowed per game. The Dolphins are also allowing an average of 3.0 receiving touchdowns per game, by far the worst average in the league.
This has resulted in wide receivers scoring the tenth-most PPR points against Miami while also ranking the Dolphins as the third-highest Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE). In order to surpass 2.5-times, McLaurin would need to score 16 points, a total that the GLSP tool projects to happen about 40% of the time.
Tight End: Austin Hooper ($6,400)
I can probably count the number of times I’ve played Austin Hooper in FanDuel cash games on a single hand. It isn’t that I think he’s a bad player, it’s just that there always seem to be better options, or his matchup just isn’t favorable. This week, however, his time appears to have come. Hooper’s opponent, the Cardinals, have been one of the most beneficial matchups for opposing tight ends throughout this season. Arizona has allowed an average of 23.6 points per game to the position over the last five games, the most of any team in the league while also allowing the most FPOE to the position as well.
Opponents have been quick to notice the Cardinals’ defensive deficiency, targeting the position 9.2 times per game on average, the fourth-most in the league while completing 7.2 passes per game, the third-most in the league. Those completions have netted an average of 92.2 receiving yards per game, the most allowed in the NFL. Hooper is my must-play selection for the week and will be in every line up I submit in FanDuel cash games this week.
Week 6 has already given us a glimpse of those teams ready to pull away from the pack as well as those who are already falling behind. Trends are also becoming much more evident and pronounced as each week goes by, making it, ironically enough, more difficult to spot trends that our opponents haven’t keyed into as well. That said, I’m obviously going to keep researching week in and week out to bring you the best plays possible. Thank you for continuing to put your trust in me. As always, good luck to everyone, and feel free to both reach out to me and follow me on Twitter at @TheFFGhost. I’ll do my best to answer any and all questions you may have!