The FanDuel cash plays brought to us by The Fantasy Football Ghost last week paid off in a big way, he looks to continue that dominance into Week 7!
Week 6 brought us the good fortunes we missed out on the prior two weeks with one of the best cumulative performances from the week’s identified players. All but one player went over 3.4 times value, which is impressive if I do say so myself! Collectively, the four players averaged 3.04 times value, led by Terry McLaurin who posted 3.75 times value, followed just marginally by Lamar Jackson who achieved 3.74 times his value. Alvin Kamara pulled up the rear with only 1.28 times value. Nonetheless, this week was a huge success and gives us a new marker to strive for heading forward. Week 7, watch out because we’ve got your number!
To measure the success of the players I recommend to our RotoViz readers, I will review the players I recommended the prior week, determining their value multiplier. I will then calculate the average multiplier across the recommended players to give me a barometer of success for that week. My stated goal is to produce an average greater than 2.5 times value. If I can manage to surpass that goal, the week will be considered a success, if I fall short of that goal, obviously, the week would be considered unsuccessful.
Much of the data presented in this piece can be found in the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer and Game Level Similarity Projections. I also want to encourage readers to check out the RotoViz NFL Lineup Optimizer so that everyone can squeeze the most value out of their lineups each week.
FanDuel NFL Cash Plays for Week 7
Quarterback: Josh Allen ($7,700)
This is one of my favorite plays thus far in this season. Josh Allen will face off against a Dolphins defense that has been a money-making target for opposing quarterbacks for daily fantasy purposes. Miami has allowed an average of 2.8 passing touchdowns per game, the most in the NFL. The Dolphins are also surrendering an average of 274.4 passing yards per game, the ninth-most in the league, and a passer rating of 131.0, the highest rating allowed in the NFL.
Did I mention that Miami has only been able to secure a single interception through five games? Finally, the Game Level Similarity Projection (GLSP) application projects that Allen will score 19.6 points, the second-highest quarterback projection for this week. This excellent value will be prominently featured in most of my FanDuel cash lineups this weekend.
Running Back: Leonard Fournette ($7,900)
Despite a price tag that I feel is a bit too high, Leonard Fournette has such an intriguing matchup that I’m willing to pay up a little for his services. Fournette’s opponent, Cincinnati, has been particularly porous against opposing running backs this season with an average of 139 rushing yards allowed per game to the position this season, the third-most allowed in the NFL.
That’s not that only way running backs have racked up the FanDuel points this year as the Bengals have allowed an average of 73.4 receiving yards to opposing running backs, the most of any defense in the league. Cincinnati is also allowing an average of 1.17 rushing touchdowns per game, again the most allowed in the NFL. When taken together, the Bengals are allowing the most PPR points to RBs of any defense in the league. While we are paying up a bit, there simply isn’t a better all-around matchup for any running back on this week’s slate.
Wide Receiver: Cooper Kupp ($7,800)
The Rams have hit a significant rough patch in October, after starting the season 3-0, they now find themselves 3-3 after a three-game skid. However, things could be turning around as soon as this Sunday with a game against the Falcons. One of the biggest beneficiaries of such a turnaround could be Cooper Kupp, who will be facing off against the league’s second-most generous defense to wide receivers, allowing an average of 218.6 receiving yards per game to the position. Atlanta holds the top rank for fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) allowed, yards after contact (YAC) allowed, and receiver air conversion rate (RACR) allowed.
The first of those three ranks, FPOE, is especially intriguing given that Kupp is currently the NFL’s top-ranked receiver in expected points per game. When the league’s top-ranked wide receiver in expected points faces off against the defense surrendering the most fantasy points over expectation, well, that’s a matchup I’m going to be all over in FanDuel cash lineups.
Tight End: Evan Engram ($6,800)
There are several tight ends this week who have exceptional matchups, so it’s a bit of a dealer’s choice with my selection of Evan Engram. Engram’s price is the second-highest on the slate but his matchup against the Cardinals is the absolute best of those tight ends available this week. Arizona is allowing the most PPR fantasy points in the league to the position, mainly because they are allowing the league’s most fantasy points over expectation. This, in turn, is because the Cardinals are simultaneously allowing the league’s most receptions and receiving yards to opposing TEs.
Engram, on the other hand, is ranked among the top-five TEs in Targets (fourth), Receptions (fourth), Receiving Yards (fourth), PPR Points (fourth), and Expected Points Per Game (first). Adding Engram to your FanDuel cash lineups with such an exploitable matchup could be like adding gasoline to a fire.
Building on the substantial momentum that Week Six provided us, the FanDuel cash lineups for Week Seven could approach those same lofty outcomes. Given the odd outcomes over the past two weeks, it’s time for the league to get back on track, making it a perfect time for us to take advantage of that return to normalcy. As always, good luck to everyone, and feel free to both reach out to me and follow me on Twitter at @TheFFGhost. I’ll do my best to answer any and all questions you may have!