Shawn Siegele looks at all the top wide receiver performances from Week 13, including surprising explosions from Kenny Golladay, James Washington, and Courtland Sutton.
The Lions, Steelers, and Broncos collectively moved to their third quarterback options for the 2019 season. The results were far better than expected. David Blough, Devlin Hodges, and Drew Lock breathed life into moribund offenses and each placed a WR on the fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE) leaderboard.
WR Fantasy Points Over Expectation Leaderboard – Week 13
Parker was an exception to the youth-fueled fireworks in Week 13. Monty Phan sees the Parker breakout as a prototypical case of FitzMagic. Parker averages almost three more points per game in his career when Ryan Fitzpatrick plays, and he’s been especially dominant since the Amish Rifle took over the offense for good in Week 7.
David Blough’s NFL career started with a bang. His first completion came on a 75-yard score to Golladay. The Lions’ young star didn’t demonstrate much rapport with Jeff Driskel, but he’s been a clear WR1 in all other games.
Drew Lock triumphed in his first NFL start after a dramatic pass interference penalty setting up the game-winning field goal. He only targeted Sutton five times, but those attempts resulted in 74 yards and two scores.
As was the case for Golladay, Sutton’s breakout had been derailed by an overmatched backup QB. Once Brandon Allen was benched, the second-year star immediately went back to his league-winning ways.
It tells you all you need to know that Sutton is pacing for a 76-1262-9 season in games started by Joe Flacco and Drew Lock. If Lock emerges or the Broncos can adequately address the QB position, Sutton has all the traits of a top-10 overall dynasty player.
Washington flopped completely as a tertiary player in Pittsburgh, but some players function better when not looking over their shoulders.
From the beginning of his NFL career through Week 8 of this season, Washington had averaged -1.6 reFPOE per game on an 8% target share. Over the last month and change, he’s averaged 7.0 on a 17% target share. That’s quite the turnaround.
After his Week 7 eruption, I provided a deeper dive into Lazard’s status as an elite prospect the NFL ignored. He’s been a meaningful part of the offense ever since, but his target rate has dropped as Davante Adams re-acclimates.
Fortunately for owners, Lazard’s Freak Score portended the kind of big-play ability demonstrated in Week 13, where he needed only three targets to generate 105 yards and a score.
Beasley has been a big part of the Bills offense all season, but his 20% target share through Week 11 spiked to 34% over the last two weeks. This has coincided with an uptick in the difficulty of Buffalo’s opponents. Using our Strength of Schedule Streaming tool, I recommended selling John Brown before this stretch.
Beasley had played a clear second fiddle to Brown prior to that point, trailing him by 2.1 targets per game and almost 40 yards. Those numbers have flipped over the last two weeks with Beasley doubling him up in targets and TDs, while almost tripling him up in yards.
Both receivers may have reason to fear the playoff schedule, but Beasley owners can take comfort in the possibility that opponents will continue to focus on neutralizing the dynamic deep threat in Brown.
I’m constantly impressed at the depth and breadth of the information in tools built by Mike Beers, Dave Caban, and Anthony Shook. If you enjoyed some of the visualizations used in this piece, make sure to check out the NFL Stat Explorer, the NFL Pace app, the Best Ball Win Rates tool, the Game Splits app, the RotoViz Screener, the Strength of Schedule Streamer, and the Weekly Stats tool.