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Week 16 Buy Low Report – Lights, Kamara, Action for Championship Weekend

The Strength of Schedule Streaming app allows you to see which players have the easiest or most difficult upcoming schedules, a potentially league-winning edge that gives you the opportunity to buy players right before they explode in plus matchups.

Welcome back to the Buy Low Report. As usual, we will combine insight from the SoS Streaming App and the RotoViz Screener to identify players who are buy-low candidates. The SoS Streaming App reveals matchup data for each fantasy position. The Screener reports expected fantasy points (EP) — which measures the value of a player’s opportunities — and fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) — which measures a player’s efficiency.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton

Believe it or not, the Chiefs’ defense has been the second-stingiest in the league at preventing opposing wide receivers from racking up fantasy points, so it was no surprise when Sutton’s second-year breakout temporarily faltered in Week 15. However, Sutton still saw 10 targets — putting him over the centennial mark for the season — and he will have a great chance to get back on track in Week 16 against a much weaker Detroit secondary.

The Lions are the second-softest defense in the league for opposing wide receivers, and they just got torched by Chris Godwin and Breshad Perriman last Sunday. It’s not a great feeling to put your championship hopes on the arm of Drew Lock, but Sutton’s combination of opportunity and matchup is too good to pass up in Week 16. If your league goes all the way into Week 17, Sutton will match up against an average Oakland defense in the final week of the regular season, so don’t worry about him losing you your championship then. Sutton is a great buy heading into the final two weeks of the year.

Will Fuller

Fuller has a chance to win you your championship next week. 

That’s partially because he has a great matchup against a Buccaneers’ defense that is last in the league at preventing opposing wideouts from scoring fantasy points, but mostly because he has a chance to be a slate-breaker on any given Sunday.

Fuller saw seven targets in Week 15 against Tennessee, turning them into five receptions for 61 yards. A passable performance, but a far cry from his ceiling. In a game that projects to be a shootout, Fuller is a savvy play, especially if you’re an underdog and need someone with a massive ceiling.

Christian Kirk

Kirk has quietly been one of the most-involved wide receivers in the league at 8.5 targets per game. He has disappointed in recent weeks — culminating with a 4-33-0 performance in Week 15, a game in which he had a season-low five targets — but he should bounce back nicely against a Seattle defense that is the fourth-softest in the league for opposing wide receivers.

It is understandably difficult to trust Kirk after back-to-back stinkers, but the volume has been there, and now he’s got an ideal matchup.

Tyler Boyd

Although Boyd claims he beat Stephon Gilmore on the majority of routes last weekend, the numbers tell a different story. Boyd finished Week 15 with just three catches for 26 yards, while Gilmore picked off Andy Dalton twice and returned one of those for a touchdown. It was obviously a poor performance from the 25-year-old wide receiver, but it’s understandable that he disappointed against the likely Defensive Player of the Year. In Week 16, Boyd will face off against a Dolphins’ defense that ranks third-worst in the league against opposing wideouts.

The volume has been there — Boyd’s 14.3 expected points per game ranks 17th among wide receivers – and now he has the matchup. Boyd is a solid WR2 play this week.

Justin Watson

Let me make this clear: You should not pick up Justin Watson over Breshad Perriman. You should not start Watson over Perriman.

But there are still reasons to like the former. Watson is a 91st percentile SPARQ-x athlete who broke pretty much every receiving record in the book at Penn. With Mike Evans out for the year and Godwin and Scotty Miller both looking doubtful, Watson should step in as the WR2 in one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses. Jameis Winston is on an absolute tear as of late, and Watson could be a sneaky start in a game that projects to be a shootout.

Keenan Allen

Allen’s season has been a roller coaster. He started the year hot – totaling 42 targets over the first three weeks – but cooled off quickly. He hasn’t topped the 100-yard mark in a game since Week 3, but he has had double-digit targets three times in the last five games. The Chargers get a good matchup against a below-average Raiders’ secondary in Week 16, so Allen is locked-and-loaded as a low-end WR1 for championship week. Start your studs and roll with Allen in this spot.

Running Backs

Devonta Freeman

Freeman has quietly gotten back to near-workhorse usage in recent weeks, as he saw 79% of snaps in Week 15 and has topped 20 touches in two of the last three games. In Week 16, the Falcons host a Jacksonville squad that has been gashed by running backs all season long. The Falcons are 7.5-point favorites and sport an implied team total of 26.0, so they should be feeding their lead running back all game in a positive game script. Freeman hasn’t lived up to the third-round price tag fantasy owners paid for him in August, but he could win a championship for those who have made it this far in spite of him.

Alvin Kamara

At this point, it might be time to admit that the hyper-efficient Kamara we have come to know and love will probably not happen this season. Maybe it’s a lingering injury, maybe it’s something else behind the scenes, or maybe it’s just bad luck.

But this level of underperformance is shocking. Kamara again was heavily involved on Monday night, totaling 14 carries and five receptions for a total of 14.7 expected points. Not great for a supposed RB1, but it’s not killing you. He again had negative Fantasy Points Over Expectation and failed to find the end zone. He gets a positive matchup against a Titans’ defense that has been sixth-worst in the league against opposing running backs this year.

It’s time to retire the expectation that Kamara is a high-end RB1 (at least for this year), but he is still getting mid-tier-RB1 volume on one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Thanks for reading the Week 16 edition of the Buy Low Report. Check back next week for the Week 17 article.

Image Credit: Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Alvin Kamara.

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