Ready to Run? Checking in on Rookie Best Ball ADP Before a Potential Combine Bounce
Image Credit: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: D'Andre Swift.

Combine testing begins today and runs through the weekend. With the 2020 class loaded at both running back and wide receiver, just how expensive are these prospects in early best ball drafts? 

Using the FFPC Dashboard, we can track the progress of tomorrow’s stars. The Player Win Rate tool helps us put these ADPs in perspective and look at how they compare to the draft slots and win rates from the 2019 rookies.

Running Back

Tier 1

Runners grabbed the top three spots in our first edition of the Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide. D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, and J.K. Dobbins are all candidates for the initial stanza of the reality draft, and they’re expensive, but not prohibitively so in best ball.

Contrast these current prices with 2019 first-rounder Josh Jacobs, who went off the board at No. 40. Jacobs didn’t pay off despite a solid rookie season (7.7% win), but Miles Sanders (83 ADP) finished with the fourth-best win rate at the position.

Even without landing spots, Taylor and Dobbins look like values. Both of them earned far better scores in the RB Prospect Lab than anyone from the weaker 2019 class. If they turn in the expected times, each should jump into the range with Swift as all three backs continue to trend higher.

Tier 2

Cam Akers, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Zack Moss all have arguments over last year’s third-round trio.

David Montgomery (54) and Darrell Henderson (84) both went in the top 100 and finished with 8.8% and 5.8% win rates respectively. Devin Singletary slipped into Round 13 after a poor combine and initially poor fit in Buffalo, but he won at better than 10%.

I expect at least two players from the 2020 group will move into the 75 range, although starting jobs may be in short supply behind the Big 3.

A.J. Dillon is the least expensive of the second-tier backs, but he posted a massive score in my original RB Prospect Lab rankings. A strong combine could boost him more than 100 slots.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1

After CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy, the top tier at WR is deep and bunched. As many as eight receivers are frequent first-rounders in mock drafts.

In yesterday’s WR preview, I offered Freak Score ranges, college Dominator Ratings, and the top comps for each player using the Box Score Scout. Comps for this year’s stars included Odell Beckham, Sammy Watkins, and DeAndre Hopkins, so it might be a little surprising that none of them are clearly in the top 100.1

This is still far better than last year’s first-round picks. N’Keal Harry (170) and Marquise Brown (224) both slid on injury and situation concerns. Despite missing several games and playing limited snaps in others, Brown paid off easily at that price.

 

Rehabbing a foot injury, Brown wasn’t able to create that signature moment during last year’s draft season. But several 2020 first-round potentials could use this opportunity to break out on the big stage. Impressive forty times for Henry Ruggs and Laviska Shenault would help them close the gap on the two stars and climb into the top 150.

Tier 2

For a player mocked at the edge of the first round, Justin Jefferson isn’t very popular. This is probably a mistake. As Blair Andrews explains, Jefferson is the only rookie WR to check all the boxes.

Brandon Aiyuk, Jalen Reager, and K.J. Hamler should be three of the most fun players to watch this weekend. All are expected to show plus-athleticism. They could join a host of 2019 winners who moved up at the event.

At last year’s combine, D.K. Metcalf posted the best Freak Score in years, while Deebo Samuel, Parris Campbell, Mecole Hardman, and Andy Isabella all ran fast enough to generate second-round looks. A.J. Brown also impressed with a sub-4.5 forty at 226 pounds.

Win rates were all over the map for this group, but Brown (11.4%) and Samuel (13.2%) remind us to not ignore WR. Samuel at 211 and Brown at 249 offered good risk/reward profiles at those ADPs. The same can be said currently for our 2020 second tier.

Enjoy the combine everyone, and for more info check out my RB and WR previews. Plus, don’t miss Travis May’s Top 100 Rookie Countdown.

Image Credit: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: D’Andre Swift.
  1. Part of this is simply the FFPC format, although they’re barely higher in BestBall10s.  (back)

Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.
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