High-Stakes Drafters are Bullish on Top Rookie RBs — Should You Be?
Share on twitter
Share on facebook
Image Credit: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Under normal circumstances, drafting rookie running backs in the FFPC Main Event is a complete minefield. The 2017 class likely ruined expectations for years after, as the likes of Kareem Hunt, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette finished in the top nine, a tidy profit on their third-round ADPs – and that’s not counting Alvin Kamara, who was drafted much later and finished as the overall RB3.

The appeal is obvious: A rookie starter (or possible co-starter) typically comes much more cheaply than an entrenched veteran, so the payoff is larger if he hits. But the downside is huge, too: There’s the chance that the rookie can become almost completely worthless in redraft (see: Royce Freeman in 2018) if he can’t find a foothold in the offense. Thus, the minefield.

Of course, this season may not be played under normal circumstances. The threat of COVID-19 – players who test positive will reportedly go on the commissioner’s exempt list, with no minimum or maximum time limit – means backups (or in many cases, rookies) could see more playing time than they would otherwise. That would make them more valuable. On the other hand, as it currently stands, there will be no preseason games, depriving rookies of the game-time action crucial to earning snaps when the games actually count. That would make them even riskier than usual. Again, the minefield.

So, what do we do?

Please subscribe to Read The Entire Article!

 

What’s included in your subscription?

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • NFL, CFB, and PGA coverage included in all subscription levels.
  • And a whole lot more…

 

 

Monty Phan

Lead writer focusing on high-stakes fantasy football. 2017 FFPC Main Event regular season points champion. 4-time FFPC Main Event league winner. 2018 FFPC Bare Knuckle league champ.

NFL Week 16: Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda

Monty Phan wraps up the weekend of NFL action. For nearly four months every year, my wife puts up with a husband who is totally…...

What we do
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2020 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.