Ultimate Zero RB Watch: AFC Week 14 – Busts to Sit and Breakouts to Start in the Fantasy Playoffs
Image Credit: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Nyheim Hines.

In a week where Devontae Booker, Le’Veon Bell, and Benny Snell all failed to grab the moment, Shawn Siegele contrasts the disappointing results for desperation starters with exciting performances from rookies Jonathan Taylor and James Robinson. The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List breaks down the workload for all AFC backfields ahead of Week 14.

The Week 13 carnage wasn’t restricted to desperation plays. Derrick Henry also busted in a week where Taylor and Robinson were the only AFC backs to go over 20 points. Meanwhile, Nyheim Hines continued to do just enough to lead Zero RB teams to glory.

The Zero RB Watch is for all fantasy owners, regardless of your RB strategy, and the RotoViz Screener and Weekly Stat Explorer provide a wealth of advanced stats on every team. Much of our focus is on how RBs score their points. We use expected points (EP) and fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) along with carries, targets, snaps, and red zone touches to better understand each player’s workload.

Want to know everything about the WR position instead? Zachary Krueger’s WR deep dive has all of the advanced stats and takes you behind the scenes of the trickiest depth charts.

Buffalo Bills

Both Bills runners exited with dings early but returned a few snaps later. It was a different story for Zack Moss after his early fumble at Buffalo’s goal line provided a cheap score for San Francisco. Devin Singletary then dominated snaps and looked a little more like the 2019 version as a receiver. Of course, he did log negative efficiency numbers in both categories.

The Bills are a high-end version of the Steelers offense with Josh Allen carving up defenses like a young Ben Roethlisberger. The two AFC Super Bowl contenders will continue to go pass-heavy as long as their backs are met in the backfield on all running plays.

Cleveland Browns

It’s frustrating for Nick Chubb owners to watch him take his lone target 26 yards and wonder what might have been.[1] His skillset is still perfect for Kevin Stefanski, as the Browns trail only Minnesota in total rushing EP. Chubb has five RB1 finishes in eight appearances, and he’s earned at least 18 carries in six of those starts.

Denver Broncos

After three weekly finishes below 5.0 points in the last month, Melvin Gordon delivered for desperate owners. He broke free on numerous occasions and eclipsed 100 yards for the second time in 2020. His 131 rushing yards were the most since he gained 132 in Week 6 of 2018.

Phillip Lindsay earned almost as many carries but went nowhere. He’s been dinged up all season, but the cumulative effect has really been felt of late. Lindsay averaged 6.8 yards per carry through Week 9, but only 3.0 since. He still resides at an elite 4.9 for his career, especially impressive results considering the dysfunctional nature of Denver’s offense during his tenure.

Houston Texans

David Johnson looked refreshed in his return, pounding and slashing through defenders on his six-yard TD run. Johnson has been surprisingly playable this season, cresting 10 points in seven of his nine appearances. Unfortunately, his absence allowed Duke Johnson to solidify a role in the passing game, mitigating that all-important source of cheap points. Of course, after having that as the lone area where he still thrived in 2019, the receiving aspect of David Johnson’s game has also collapsed this season.

Indianapolis Colts

Even after Jonathan Taylor’s 36-yard TD reception, the Colts went their first three drives of the second half without giving him a carry. Despite the inexplicable workload shenanigans, the final numbers were still impressive. Taylor notched his second consecutive 90-yard game, bisected by the close-contact absence a week ago. Finally finding his sea legs as an NFL player, the rookie should be a big weapon in the fantasy playoffs, especially over the next two weeks.

While Taylor pushes for potential first-round status in 2021 drafts, Nyheim Hines continues to solidify himself as one of the best change-of-pace backs in the league. He’s posted an RB2 or better finish in four of the last six weeks. The Colts have even deployed him as a sneaky play around the goal. His 13 carries inside the 10 tie Taylor for the team lead.

Kansas City Chiefs

Footnotes

Footnotes
1 Chiefs fans forced to watch the Le’Veon Bell show also wonder what would have happened if Hunt had better managed his behavior.

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Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

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