The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Because we are early in the season, the numbers you will see below are still balanced between late-season 2022 and early-season 2023. As we get deeper into 2023, the 2022 numbers will drop out.
For Week 4, I’m releasing a free preview of the Thursday Night Football game. Look out for the full edition soon.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love was tested last week, and although he struggled with passing efficiency, he rushed for 39 yards and a touchdown en route to his second QB1 finish in three weeks. The Lions will present a much more forgiving passing matchup, giving Love an opportunity to combine the rushing upside with passing efficiency.
Detroit’s pass defense ranks in the bottom third of the league in FPOE allowed. Only two teams allow big passing plays at a higher rate. Christian Watson’s 2023 debut should provide a further efficiency boost.
The Packers’ running game has not been as successful, and the Lions’ run defense has not been as beatable, but Green Bay should get Aaron Jones back for this game.
Detroit has been even more difficult to run on in 2023, with 2.0 yards after contact and a 4% boom rate.
Jones was active for many of the games that go into these numbers, so the lack of efficiency can’t be entirely blamed on his absence. Still, Jones is routinely among the most efficient backs in the league.
The Packers may need to rely on Love’s arm more than Jones’ legs, however. Detroit comes in with one of the most efficient passing games in the league and could put up points in a hurry.
That said, the Packers enter with one of the stronger defensive units against the pass. They rank inside the top 10 in FPOE allowed, WR separation, and expected points added (EPA) per pass attempt. They are also No. 8 in dropbacks faced, largely because their rushing defense is relatively weak, compared to their passing defense. It might be in the Lions’ interest to turn to their running backs for more production.
The Packers rank No. 28 in both success rate (the percentage of plays that result in positive EPA) and boom rate (the percentage of plays that result in at least 1.0 EPA) allowed in the running game. Jahmyr Gibbs handled 17 carries in Week 3, absorbing most of David Montgomery’s workload. While he was the only back to earn a target, we’ll be hoping for more than two going forward. Trading some of those carries for more looks in the passing game is a deal Gibbs’ drafters would gladly take. But the fact that he already has such a dominant role in this offense is a good sign.
Make sure you check out the range of content from the RotoViz in-season offerings. Recent articles include . . .
- DFS Insights from K-Means Cluster Analysis – Matt Spencer
- The Value of a Spike Week – Best Ball Win Rate Model – Jake Boes
- Going Deep: WR/CB Matchups for Week 4 – Dave Caban
- Using the RotoViz Pace Tool to Find Matchups to Target/Avoid – Mat Irby
- Dynasty Commander Center: Rookie Synopsis – Curtis Patrick
- Buy Low Report: Advanced WR Stats – Ryan Ramsarran
. . . and much more. Good luck tonight!