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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Nelson Agholor’s Ankle May Have Hindered Him in 2015

From Philly.com regarding Nelson Agholor: The Eagles certainly expected more when they plucked him out of Southern Cal with the 20th overall pick. The 2014 class was historically productive in year one, but Agholor’s core numbers still paled in comparison with the average (45 catches for 607 yards and four touchdowns) of first-round receivers from the last decade. Even if the comparison is per game, Agholor (1.8 catches for 21.8 yards and .08 touchdowns) comes up far short (3.3 catches for 44.4 yards and 0.3 touchdowns). There is a second-year increase (56 catches for 802 yards and six touchdowns or 3.9…...

Duke Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, and the Browns Backfield

From Cleveland.com: “Obviously Isaiah is very explosive,” [Hue Jackson] said. “He’s got quick feet, he’s fast in the hole, he runs with good pad level.” In Johnson, Jackson sees an elusive runner and dynamic receiver in the mold of Cincinnati’s Gio Bernard, who rushed for 730 yards (4.7-yard average) and two TDs, and caught 49 passes for 472 yards and no TDs. Johnson (5-9, 210) finished second to Crowell with 104 carries for 379 yards (3.6-yard average) and caught 61 passes for 532 yards, both of which were third on the team. He was also tied for third with two…...

Paul Perkins and the Giants Backfield

From the New York Daily News: – Good luck figuring out what the Giants’ plans are at running back after they drafted UCLA’s Paul Perkins in the fifth round on Saturday. The Giants now have six RBs they like, including the four they had last year – Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, Andre Williams, Orleans Darkwa – and veteran Bobby Rainey, who was signed this offseason. Who’s the odd man out? Forget Jennings and Vereen, given the money the Giants invested in them. And the Giants almost never cut their own draft picks, so forget Williams (a 2014 fourth-rounder). It seems to…...

The Back of the Napkin Math on How Ezekiel Elliott Can be a Top 5 Running Back in 2016

I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of fantasy draft season in 2016 the most polarizing question is whether Ezekiel Elliott is worth a first round fantasy pick. Just based on first impressions I could see the point of both sides. Detractors will call it rookie fever and point out other times that similarly hyped rookies, like Ryan Mathews and Mark Ingram, let fantasy owners down. Meanwhile, proponents will say that Elliott is a special talent in a special situation and it’s dumb to get caught up in pattern matching using just the latest examples of overhyped rookies. While I…...

On a Long Enough Timeline – The Effects of Age in Dynasty Trade Values

As I mentioned yesterday, I’m working on a machine learning model that can hopefully predict dynasty trade values one year into the future. The utility of this model is pretty obvious – it could allow you to sell players whose value is likely to decline, while also buying players whose value is likely to increase. As I’m working on the model I’m also inspecting the underlying data in order to get a good sense of relationships that might exist between the variables and trade value. It’s not a lot of additional work to post some of the data I’m looking…...

The Rueben Randle Article the Experts Don’t Want You to See

As a bit of fair warning this post will mostly be the result of some musings I had as I was evaluating a dynasty roster where I own Rueben Randle. So that’s fair warning that I own Rueben Randle and thus might not be worth listening to. It’s also fair warning that when someone is trying to dig up positive evidence on the guys at the end of a dynasty roster, objectivity is a distant memory. This story starts when I was trying to get rid of Chris Hogan.  I’m realistic, I would literally take anything back in a trade…....

rb watch list

The Dynasty Zero RB Strategy in One Graph

Over the weekend I was working on creating a machine learning model to predict future trade values for dynasty players. I’m starting with the trade values in our Dynasty ADP app and then using some variables like age and production to estimate a player’s dynasty value 12 months in the future…....

The Sports Analytics Twitter Accounts You Should be Following

Readers familiar with the site know that we often publish lists of people to follow on Twitter, created using a combination of the Twitter API and some simple data processing in R. The goal is always to get the most meaningful Twitter list with the least amount of effort. To create the list of people to follow below I went through the following steps: Create a seed list of sports analytics Twitter accounts. Call this the seed list. Use the Twitter API and the twitteR package to get a list of people the seed list follows Create a simple relevance…...

How Will Doug Pederson Impact Jordan Matthews?

There’s a slice of the fantasy football world that does not like Jordan Matthews and keeps doubling down on that dislike each year. Meanwhile Matthews has had an incredibly productive first two years in the league considering the fact that his quarterbacks include mostly players that would be sources of excuse-making for other wide receivers. I’m not one of the Jordan Matthews haters. I have owned him at various times during his career but have also been happy to sell him when I thought that the price was right. However, I’m probably a little more bearish on Matthews going into…...

Deep Deep Sleeper 3: Devin Lucien, WR, ASU

Wide receiver Devin Lucien started his career at UCLA where compiled not very many yards in a three season career before transferring to Arizona State. As a college graduate he was immediately available for the 2015 season and finished his career on a high note as a Sun Devil. Lucien had fewer than 800 yards during his first three years in college and then this is what his final season looks like compared to a more highly regarded prospect: On most measures Lucien is competitive with Sterling Shepard. Although that also requires that you forget that Lucien’s forty time is…...

Nelson Agholor’s Ankle May Have Hindered Him in 2015

From Philly.com regarding Nelson Agholor: The Eagles certainly expected more when they plucked him out of Southern Cal with the 20th overall pick. The 2014 class was historically productive in year one, but Agholor’s core numbers still paled in comparison with the average (45 catches for 607 yards and four touchdowns) of first-round receivers from the last decade. Even if the comparison is per game, Agholor (1.8 catches for 21.8 yards and .08 touchdowns) comes up far short (3.3 catches for 44.4 yards and 0.3 touchdowns). There is a second-year increase (56 catches for 802 yards and six touchdowns or 3.9…...

Duke Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, and the Browns Backfield

From Cleveland.com: “Obviously Isaiah is very explosive,” [Hue Jackson] said. “He’s got quick feet, he’s fast in the hole, he runs with good pad level.” In Johnson, Jackson sees an elusive runner and dynamic receiver in the mold of Cincinnati’s Gio Bernard, who rushed for 730 yards (4.7-yard average) and two TDs, and caught 49 passes for 472 yards and no TDs. Johnson (5-9, 210) finished second to Crowell with 104 carries for 379 yards (3.6-yard average) and caught 61 passes for 532 yards, both of which were third on the team. He was also tied for third with two…...

Paul Perkins and the Giants Backfield

From the New York Daily News: – Good luck figuring out what the Giants’ plans are at running back after they drafted UCLA’s Paul Perkins in the fifth round on Saturday. The Giants now have six RBs they like, including the four they had last year – Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, Andre Williams, Orleans Darkwa – and veteran Bobby Rainey, who was signed this offseason. Who’s the odd man out? Forget Jennings and Vereen, given the money the Giants invested in them. And the Giants almost never cut their own draft picks, so forget Williams (a 2014 fourth-rounder). It seems to…...

The Back of the Napkin Math on How Ezekiel Elliott Can be a Top 5 Running Back in 2016

I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of fantasy draft season in 2016 the most polarizing question is whether Ezekiel Elliott is worth a first round fantasy pick. Just based on first impressions I could see the point of both sides. Detractors will call it rookie fever and point out other times that similarly hyped rookies, like Ryan Mathews and Mark Ingram, let fantasy owners down. Meanwhile, proponents will say that Elliott is a special talent in a special situation and it’s dumb to get caught up in pattern matching using just the latest examples of overhyped rookies. While I…...

On a Long Enough Timeline – The Effects of Age in Dynasty Trade Values

As I mentioned yesterday, I’m working on a machine learning model that can hopefully predict dynasty trade values one year into the future. The utility of this model is pretty obvious – it could allow you to sell players whose value is likely to decline, while also buying players whose value is likely to increase. As I’m working on the model I’m also inspecting the underlying data in order to get a good sense of relationships that might exist between the variables and trade value. It’s not a lot of additional work to post some of the data I’m looking…...

The Rueben Randle Article the Experts Don’t Want You to See

As a bit of fair warning this post will mostly be the result of some musings I had as I was evaluating a dynasty roster where I own Rueben Randle. So that’s fair warning that I own Rueben Randle and thus might not be worth listening to. It’s also fair warning that when someone is trying to dig up positive evidence on the guys at the end of a dynasty roster, objectivity is a distant memory. This story starts when I was trying to get rid of Chris Hogan.  I’m realistic, I would literally take anything back in a trade…....

rb watch list

The Dynasty Zero RB Strategy in One Graph

Over the weekend I was working on creating a machine learning model to predict future trade values for dynasty players. I’m starting with the trade values in our Dynasty ADP app and then using some variables like age and production to estimate a player’s dynasty value 12 months in the future…....

The Sports Analytics Twitter Accounts You Should be Following

Readers familiar with the site know that we often publish lists of people to follow on Twitter, created using a combination of the Twitter API and some simple data processing in R. The goal is always to get the most meaningful Twitter list with the least amount of effort. To create the list of people to follow below I went through the following steps: Create a seed list of sports analytics Twitter accounts. Call this the seed list. Use the Twitter API and the twitteR package to get a list of people the seed list follows Create a simple relevance…...

How Will Doug Pederson Impact Jordan Matthews?

There’s a slice of the fantasy football world that does not like Jordan Matthews and keeps doubling down on that dislike each year. Meanwhile Matthews has had an incredibly productive first two years in the league considering the fact that his quarterbacks include mostly players that would be sources of excuse-making for other wide receivers. I’m not one of the Jordan Matthews haters. I have owned him at various times during his career but have also been happy to sell him when I thought that the price was right. However, I’m probably a little more bearish on Matthews going into…...

Deep Deep Sleeper 3: Devin Lucien, WR, ASU

Wide receiver Devin Lucien started his career at UCLA where compiled not very many yards in a three season career before transferring to Arizona State. As a college graduate he was immediately available for the 2015 season and finished his career on a high note as a Sun Devil. Lucien had fewer than 800 yards during his first three years in college and then this is what his final season looks like compared to a more highly regarded prospect: On most measures Lucien is competitive with Sterling Shepard. Although that also requires that you forget that Lucien’s forty time is…...

Nelson Agholor’s Ankle May Have Hindered Him in 2015

From Philly.com regarding Nelson Agholor: The Eagles certainly expected more when they plucked him out of Southern Cal with the 20th overall pick. The 2014 class was historically productive in year one, but Agholor’s core numbers still paled in comparison with the average (45 catches for 607 yards and four touchdowns)…...

Duke Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, and the Browns Backfield

From Cleveland.com: “Obviously Isaiah is very explosive,” [Hue Jackson] said. “He’s got quick feet, he’s fast in the hole, he runs with good pad level.” In Johnson, Jackson sees an elusive runner and dynamic receiver in the mold of Cincinnati’s Gio Bernard, who rushed for 730 yards (4.7-yard average) and…...

Paul Perkins and the Giants Backfield

From the New York Daily News: – Good luck figuring out what the Giants’ plans are at running back after they drafted UCLA’s Paul Perkins in the fifth round on Saturday. The Giants now have six RBs they like, including the four they had last year – Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen,…...

On a Long Enough Timeline – The Effects of Age in Dynasty Trade Values

As I mentioned yesterday, I’m working on a machine learning model that can hopefully predict dynasty trade values one year into the future. The utility of this model is pretty obvious – it could allow you to sell players whose value is likely to decline, while also buying players whose…...

The Rueben Randle Article the Experts Don’t Want You to See

As a bit of fair warning this post will mostly be the result of some musings I had as I was evaluating a dynasty roster where I own Rueben Randle. So that’s fair warning that I own Rueben Randle and thus might not be worth listening to. It’s also fair…...

rb watch list

The Dynasty Zero RB Strategy in One Graph

Over the weekend I was working on creating a machine learning model to predict future trade values for dynasty players. I’m starting with the trade values in our Dynasty ADP app and then using some variables like age and production to estimate a player’s dynasty value 12 months in the…...

The Sports Analytics Twitter Accounts You Should be Following

Readers familiar with the site know that we often publish lists of people to follow on Twitter, created using a combination of the Twitter API and some simple data processing in R. The goal is always to get the most meaningful Twitter list with the least amount of effort. To…...

How Will Doug Pederson Impact Jordan Matthews?

There’s a slice of the fantasy football world that does not like Jordan Matthews and keeps doubling down on that dislike each year. Meanwhile Matthews has had an incredibly productive first two years in the league considering the fact that his quarterbacks include mostly players that would be sources of…...

Deep Deep Sleeper 3: Devin Lucien, WR, ASU

Wide receiver Devin Lucien started his career at UCLA where compiled not very many yards in a three season career before transferring to Arizona State. As a college graduate he was immediately available for the 2015 season and finished his career on a high note as a Sun Devil. Lucien…...

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