Michael Dubner

RotoViz Featured Writer. Emphasis on NFL DFS and Best Ball.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

When Should You Enter Your DRAFT Best Ball Championship Teams? The Optimal Draft Month for Maximizing Points

Michael Dubner continues the DRAFT Best Ball article series where we will now focus our attention on the DRAFT Best Ball Championship and improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize.  Since the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship opened this offseason, over 13,000 teams have already entered the contest, with some owners perhaps drafting over $1,000 worth of entries. This leads us…...

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Price, Production & Profile: The 2019 Zero RB Sleeper You’re Missing Out On

What if I told you that one of 2019’s best Zero RB candidates is currently available in the 13th and 14th rounds of fantasy football drafts? He’s a player who racked up nearly 3,000 total yards over his final two years of college and now plays on a team that projects to be amongst the run-heaviest offenses in the league. All this while being second…...

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High-Stakes Best-Ball ADP: 4 Teams With Volatile Movers and What To Do About Them

Throughout the offseason, RotoViz will take snapshots of high-stakes best-ball ADP using the FFPC Exposures and ADP app. Other entries in the series include a look at February ADP and movement after NFL free agency.  We’re now about halfway between the end of the NFL Draft and the start of training camps, when any bit of information – “Sony Michel isn’t practicing in May! Buy…...

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The Dolphins Offense Is Mispriced In All Formats

It’s no secret the Miami Dolphins are a rebuilding franchise. They’re not coy about it, and everyone knows it. As such and evidenced by ADP, it would appear the community’s expected offensive output is exclusively draw plays and kneel downs, and for the team to concede each game before it’s played. Needless to say, there is exploitability here. I’m going to walk through the pricing…...

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Is Jake Kumerow a Legit Fantasy Sleeper in 2019?

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers sent waves of hope through the fantasy world this week when he spent a solid 60 seconds pumping the tires of sophomore wide receiver Jake Kumerow. Here’s the full clip. Aaron Rodgers really likes Jake Kumerow. via @packers pic.twitter.com/olk6QyaWD5 — Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) June 12, 2019 “He’s an extremely intelligent guy who’s in the right place at the right time,” fawned Rodgers…....

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Just Pick Players: Win Your League With This Simple Onesie Selection Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 56

Welcome to the 56th installment of The Wrong Read. Quarterback and tight end are the forgotten positions in fantasy, but they are probably more important than you think — you can win your best ball league simply by taking the right roster construction approach to these positions. At the end of the day though, you also have to pick players, and good process here can…...

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BestBall10s Workshop No. 11: The Roster Construction Explorer Urges You to Load Up Early at WR

We’ve finally made it to the pivotal position. Shawn Siegele uses the Roster Construction Explorer to investigate the role of wide receivers in BestBall10s. If you prefer FFPC Best Ball, check out the work from FFPC gurus Monty Phan and John Lapinski. When I began the Best Ball Workshop, I knew the Roster Construction Explorer had the potential to radically reform the way owners draft…...

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20 Rounds of Death: The Best Ball Workshop Breaks Down Every Pick

Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death VI wrapped up earlier this week. Shawn Siegele walks through 20 rounds of player selections as he tries to defend his 2017 and 2018 titles. In the Best Ball Workshop No. 9, we used the Roster Construction Explorer and found the two best paths to a high win rate in BestBall10s. Today, we’ll look at how I used the workshop…...

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Todd Gurley Is a Bad Third Round Pick

Todd Gurley, the No. 1 non-quarterback fantasy football player in points per game in both 2017 and 2018, is currently being overdrafted in the second round of best ball drafts. Gurley’s ADP has declined in the last month, but it has not fallen far enough. There should be extreme concern about Gurley’s health and his future in the NFL. The Information We Have We know that…...

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Is Drafting Rashaad Penny Wise?

Last year I wrote about my hometown hero, San Diego State University alum Rashaad Penny, as an elite NFL prospect. Although he was from a small Mountain West school, he sported a class-leading College Dominator Rating above 50% and had the second-highest score in the RB Prospect Lab. Yet Penny was possibly overdrafted in reality when he was taken by the run-heavy Seattle Seahawks in the…...

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2019 MFL10 of Death and the Best Ball Workshop: Top Picks According to the Roster Construction Explorer

The 2019 MFL10 of Death kicked off yesterday, and Patrick Thorman’s brainchild again provides a murderer’s row of competition. As Shawn Siegele tries to defend his title, he’ll use the Fanball Roster Construction Explorer, the Fanball ADP Dashboard, the RotoViz Screener, and the staff rankings to build out his early round strategy. In this edition of the Best Ball Workshop, he breaks down some of…...

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Opportunity Scores: The Top Landing Spots For Rookie Wide Receivers

A few years ago, RotoViz OG Kevin Cole created a formula for determining which teams were the best landing spots for rookie wide receivers. In fantasy and real football, performance is a function of opportunity. Whether the opportunity was created through talent, draft position, or lack of competition, it doesn’t matter. All that matters is raw opportunity because targets are the lifeblood of fantasy scoring…....

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RB-Heavy Will Kill Your Best Ball Team, But There Is An Early Round Perfect for RBs

In Lesson 7 of the Best Ball Workshop, we learned that RB-heavy teams have very poor win rates. In fact, if you start RBx4 or select RBs in four of the first five rounds, then your chances of winning drop to approximately one in 20. Far from being fueled exclusively by the RB apocalypse of 2015, RBx4 had it’s worst year in 2018, winning less…...

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3 Players You Should Stop Drafting at ADP

  Being player agnostic is one of the best edges you can find in fantasy football in 2019 — don’t fall in love with a player, fall in love with his price. With the suite of RotoViz tools, finding this year’s most mispriced players is easier than ever. We already looked at some players that we think are being drafted too low. On the flip…...

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3 Deep Sleepers RotoViz Likes More Than You

  Being player agnostic is one of the best edges you can find in fantasy football in 2019 — don’t fall in love with a player, fall in love with his price. With the suite of RotoViz tools, finding this year’s most mispriced players is easier than ever, so let’s take a look at three deep sleepers we like more than the drafting public. By…...

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Contract Year RBs: Fantasy Appeal of the Walk Year Stars

  We’re back again to offer our thoughts on prominent contract year players at one of the fantasy footballs most important positions, namely running back. Yes, I know the popular theory is that they don’t matter. But getting a good one can be the reason you take home a fantasy crown. Drafting a bad one can be the reason you are swearing angrily at your…...

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Will Fuller Is the Ultimate Best Ball Target, and He’s Available at a Discount

  Consistency and upside are typically built into a player’s price during the draft, but other factors can sometimes lower the acquisition cost and turn a player into a value. Despite there being only a small sample size, Will Fuller has proven in the last two seasons that he’s a WR1 in games with Deshaun Watson. Even with the injury risks, he’s one of my favorite…...

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If You Pass on Christian McCaffrey, You Could Miss the Best Fantasy Season Ever

  As impressive as Christian McCaffrey’s 2018 was, we likely still haven’t seen his ceiling. How high is it? And does the Panthers running back have the potential to push for the greatest fantasy season ever? McCaffrey was the top-scoring RB in PPR leagues last year with 383 points. That’s the eighth-most points scored by a non-quarterback since the year 2000. Even better for fantasy…...

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Contract Year WRs: Fantasy Appeal of the Walk Year Stars

  Following on from my look at the fantasy appeal of quarterbacks heading into the final season of their current deals, attention is now turned towards wide receivers facing the same situation. We’ll be focusing on three players for whom the coming season represents a chance to earn a big payday in 2020. In their pursuits of new deals, I’ll offer my thoughts as to…...

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Zero RB or RB-Heavy in BestBall10s? The Roster Construction Explorer Gives Us the Shocking Results

  Over the last four years in the MFL10 of Death, Shawn Siegele has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 1st, using his signature Zero RB approach to bring home three titles. But were these wins the result of avoiding RBs early? Or did he win because of player selection and in spite of a structural approach that might be doing more harm than good? The…...

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When Should You Enter Your DRAFT Best Ball Championship Teams? The Optimal Draft Month for Maximizing Points

Michael Dubner continues the DRAFT Best Ball article series where we will now focus our attention on the DRAFT Best Ball Championship and improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize.  Since the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship opened this offseason, over 13,000 teams have already entered the contest, with some owners perhaps drafting over $1,000 worth of entries. This leads us…...

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Price, Production & Profile: The 2019 Zero RB Sleeper You’re Missing Out On

What if I told you that one of 2019’s best Zero RB candidates is currently available in the 13th and 14th rounds of fantasy football drafts? He’s a player who racked up nearly 3,000 total yards over his final two years of college and now plays on a team that projects to be amongst the run-heaviest offenses in the league. All this while being second…...

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High-Stakes Best-Ball ADP: 4 Teams With Volatile Movers and What To Do About Them

Throughout the offseason, RotoViz will take snapshots of high-stakes best-ball ADP using the FFPC Exposures and ADP app. Other entries in the series include a look at February ADP and movement after NFL free agency.  We’re now about halfway between the end of the NFL Draft and the start of training camps, when any bit of information – “Sony Michel isn’t practicing in May! Buy…...

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The Dolphins Offense Is Mispriced In All Formats

It’s no secret the Miami Dolphins are a rebuilding franchise. They’re not coy about it, and everyone knows it. As such and evidenced by ADP, it would appear the community’s expected offensive output is exclusively draw plays and kneel downs, and for the team to concede each game before it’s played. Needless to say, there is exploitability here. I’m going to walk through the pricing…...

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Is Jake Kumerow a Legit Fantasy Sleeper in 2019?

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers sent waves of hope through the fantasy world this week when he spent a solid 60 seconds pumping the tires of sophomore wide receiver Jake Kumerow. Here’s the full clip. Aaron Rodgers really likes Jake Kumerow. via @packers pic.twitter.com/olk6QyaWD5 — Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) June 12, 2019 “He’s an extremely intelligent guy who’s in the right place at the right time,” fawned Rodgers…....

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Just Pick Players: Win Your League With This Simple Onesie Selection Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 56

Welcome to the 56th installment of The Wrong Read. Quarterback and tight end are the forgotten positions in fantasy, but they are probably more important than you think — you can win your best ball league simply by taking the right roster construction approach to these positions. At the end of the day though, you also have to pick players, and good process here can…...

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BestBall10s Workshop No. 11: The Roster Construction Explorer Urges You to Load Up Early at WR

We’ve finally made it to the pivotal position. Shawn Siegele uses the Roster Construction Explorer to investigate the role of wide receivers in BestBall10s. If you prefer FFPC Best Ball, check out the work from FFPC gurus Monty Phan and John Lapinski. When I began the Best Ball Workshop, I knew the Roster Construction Explorer had the potential to radically reform the way owners draft…...

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20 Rounds of Death: The Best Ball Workshop Breaks Down Every Pick

Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death VI wrapped up earlier this week. Shawn Siegele walks through 20 rounds of player selections as he tries to defend his 2017 and 2018 titles. In the Best Ball Workshop No. 9, we used the Roster Construction Explorer and found the two best paths to a high win rate in BestBall10s. Today, we’ll look at how I used the workshop…...

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Todd Gurley Is a Bad Third Round Pick

Todd Gurley, the No. 1 non-quarterback fantasy football player in points per game in both 2017 and 2018, is currently being overdrafted in the second round of best ball drafts. Gurley’s ADP has declined in the last month, but it has not fallen far enough. There should be extreme concern about Gurley’s health and his future in the NFL. The Information We Have We know that…...

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Is Drafting Rashaad Penny Wise?

Last year I wrote about my hometown hero, San Diego State University alum Rashaad Penny, as an elite NFL prospect. Although he was from a small Mountain West school, he sported a class-leading College Dominator Rating above 50% and had the second-highest score in the RB Prospect Lab. Yet Penny was possibly overdrafted in reality when he was taken by the run-heavy Seattle Seahawks in the…...

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2019 MFL10 of Death and the Best Ball Workshop: Top Picks According to the Roster Construction Explorer

The 2019 MFL10 of Death kicked off yesterday, and Patrick Thorman’s brainchild again provides a murderer’s row of competition. As Shawn Siegele tries to defend his title, he’ll use the Fanball Roster Construction Explorer, the Fanball ADP Dashboard, the RotoViz Screener, and the staff rankings to build out his early round strategy. In this edition of the Best Ball Workshop, he breaks down some of…...

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Opportunity Scores: The Top Landing Spots For Rookie Wide Receivers

A few years ago, RotoViz OG Kevin Cole created a formula for determining which teams were the best landing spots for rookie wide receivers. In fantasy and real football, performance is a function of opportunity. Whether the opportunity was created through talent, draft position, or lack of competition, it doesn’t matter. All that matters is raw opportunity because targets are the lifeblood of fantasy scoring…....

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RB-Heavy Will Kill Your Best Ball Team, But There Is An Early Round Perfect for RBs

In Lesson 7 of the Best Ball Workshop, we learned that RB-heavy teams have very poor win rates. In fact, if you start RBx4 or select RBs in four of the first five rounds, then your chances of winning drop to approximately one in 20. Far from being fueled exclusively by the RB apocalypse of 2015, RBx4 had it’s worst year in 2018, winning less…...

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3 Players You Should Stop Drafting at ADP

  Being player agnostic is one of the best edges you can find in fantasy football in 2019 — don’t fall in love with a player, fall in love with his price. With the suite of RotoViz tools, finding this year’s most mispriced players is easier than ever. We already looked at some players that we think are being drafted too low. On the flip…...

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3 Deep Sleepers RotoViz Likes More Than You

  Being player agnostic is one of the best edges you can find in fantasy football in 2019 — don’t fall in love with a player, fall in love with his price. With the suite of RotoViz tools, finding this year’s most mispriced players is easier than ever, so let’s take a look at three deep sleepers we like more than the drafting public. By…...

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Contract Year RBs: Fantasy Appeal of the Walk Year Stars

  We’re back again to offer our thoughts on prominent contract year players at one of the fantasy footballs most important positions, namely running back. Yes, I know the popular theory is that they don’t matter. But getting a good one can be the reason you take home a fantasy crown. Drafting a bad one can be the reason you are swearing angrily at your…...

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Will Fuller Is the Ultimate Best Ball Target, and He’s Available at a Discount

  Consistency and upside are typically built into a player’s price during the draft, but other factors can sometimes lower the acquisition cost and turn a player into a value. Despite there being only a small sample size, Will Fuller has proven in the last two seasons that he’s a WR1 in games with Deshaun Watson. Even with the injury risks, he’s one of my favorite…...

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If You Pass on Christian McCaffrey, You Could Miss the Best Fantasy Season Ever

  As impressive as Christian McCaffrey’s 2018 was, we likely still haven’t seen his ceiling. How high is it? And does the Panthers running back have the potential to push for the greatest fantasy season ever? McCaffrey was the top-scoring RB in PPR leagues last year with 383 points. That’s the eighth-most points scored by a non-quarterback since the year 2000. Even better for fantasy…...

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Contract Year WRs: Fantasy Appeal of the Walk Year Stars

  Following on from my look at the fantasy appeal of quarterbacks heading into the final season of their current deals, attention is now turned towards wide receivers facing the same situation. We’ll be focusing on three players for whom the coming season represents a chance to earn a big payday in 2020. In their pursuits of new deals, I’ll offer my thoughts as to…...

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Zero RB or RB-Heavy in BestBall10s? The Roster Construction Explorer Gives Us the Shocking Results

  Over the last four years in the MFL10 of Death, Shawn Siegele has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 1st, using his signature Zero RB approach to bring home three titles. But were these wins the result of avoiding RBs early? Or did he win because of player selection and in spite of a structural approach that might be doing more harm than good? The…...

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When Should You Enter Your DRAFT Best Ball Championship Teams? The Optimal Draft Month for Maximizing Points

Michael Dubner continues the DRAFT Best Ball article series where we will now focus our attention on the DRAFT Best Ball Championship and improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize.  Since the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship opened this offseason, over 13,000 teams have already entered the contest, with some owners perhaps drafting over $1,000 worth of entries. This leads us…...

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Price, Production & Profile: The 2019 Zero RB Sleeper You’re Missing Out On

What if I told you that one of 2019’s best Zero RB candidates is currently available in the 13th and 14th rounds of fantasy football drafts? He’s a player who racked up nearly 3,000 total yards over his final two years of college and now plays on a team that projects to be amongst the run-heaviest offenses in the league. All this while being second…...

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High-Stakes Best-Ball ADP: 4 Teams With Volatile Movers and What To Do About Them

Throughout the offseason, RotoViz will take snapshots of high-stakes best-ball ADP using the FFPC Exposures and ADP app. Other entries in the series include a look at February ADP and movement after NFL free agency.  We’re now about halfway between the end of the NFL Draft and the start of training camps, when any bit of information – “Sony Michel isn’t practicing in May! Buy…...

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The Dolphins Offense Is Mispriced In All Formats

It’s no secret the Miami Dolphins are a rebuilding franchise. They’re not coy about it, and everyone knows it. As such and evidenced by ADP, it would appear the community’s expected offensive output is exclusively draw plays and kneel downs, and for the team to concede each game before it’s played. Needless to say, there is exploitability here. I’m going to walk through the pricing…...

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Is Jake Kumerow a Legit Fantasy Sleeper in 2019?

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers sent waves of hope through the fantasy world this week when he spent a solid 60 seconds pumping the tires of sophomore wide receiver Jake Kumerow. Here’s the full clip. Aaron Rodgers really likes Jake Kumerow. via @packers pic.twitter.com/olk6QyaWD5 — Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) June 12, 2019 “He’s an extremely intelligent guy who’s in the right place at the right time,” fawned Rodgers…....

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Just Pick Players: Win Your League With This Simple Onesie Selection Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 56

Welcome to the 56th installment of The Wrong Read. Quarterback and tight end are the forgotten positions in fantasy, but they are probably more important than you think — you can win your best ball league simply by taking the right roster construction approach to these positions. At the end of the day though, you also have to pick players, and good process here can…...

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BestBall10s Workshop No. 11: The Roster Construction Explorer Urges You to Load Up Early at WR

We’ve finally made it to the pivotal position. Shawn Siegele uses the Roster Construction Explorer to investigate the role of wide receivers in BestBall10s. If you prefer FFPC Best Ball, check out the work from FFPC gurus Monty Phan and John Lapinski. When I began the Best Ball Workshop, I knew the Roster Construction Explorer had the potential to radically reform the way owners draft…...

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20 Rounds of Death: The Best Ball Workshop Breaks Down Every Pick

Pat Thorman’s MFL10 of Death VI wrapped up earlier this week. Shawn Siegele walks through 20 rounds of player selections as he tries to defend his 2017 and 2018 titles. In the Best Ball Workshop No. 9, we used the Roster Construction Explorer and found the two best paths to a high win rate in BestBall10s. Today, we’ll look at how I used the workshop…...

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Todd Gurley Is a Bad Third Round Pick

Todd Gurley, the No. 1 non-quarterback fantasy football player in points per game in both 2017 and 2018, is currently being overdrafted in the second round of best ball drafts. Gurley’s ADP has declined in the last month, but it has not fallen far enough. There should be extreme concern about Gurley’s health and his future in the NFL. The Information We Have We know that…...

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Is Drafting Rashaad Penny Wise?

Last year I wrote about my hometown hero, San Diego State University alum Rashaad Penny, as an elite NFL prospect. Although he was from a small Mountain West school, he sported a class-leading College Dominator Rating above 50% and had the second-highest score in the RB Prospect Lab. Yet Penny was possibly overdrafted in reality when he was taken by the run-heavy Seattle Seahawks in the…...

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2019 MFL10 of Death and the Best Ball Workshop: Top Picks According to the Roster Construction Explorer

The 2019 MFL10 of Death kicked off yesterday, and Patrick Thorman’s brainchild again provides a murderer’s row of competition. As Shawn Siegele tries to defend his title, he’ll use the Fanball Roster Construction Explorer, the Fanball ADP Dashboard, the RotoViz Screener, and the staff rankings to build out his early round strategy. In this edition of the Best Ball Workshop, he breaks down some of…...

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Opportunity Scores: The Top Landing Spots For Rookie Wide Receivers

A few years ago, RotoViz OG Kevin Cole created a formula for determining which teams were the best landing spots for rookie wide receivers. In fantasy and real football, performance is a function of opportunity. Whether the opportunity was created through talent, draft position, or lack of competition, it doesn’t matter. All that matters is raw opportunity because targets are the lifeblood of fantasy scoring…....

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RB-Heavy Will Kill Your Best Ball Team, But There Is An Early Round Perfect for RBs

In Lesson 7 of the Best Ball Workshop, we learned that RB-heavy teams have very poor win rates. In fact, if you start RBx4 or select RBs in four of the first five rounds, then your chances of winning drop to approximately one in 20. Far from being fueled exclusively by the RB apocalypse of 2015, RBx4 had it’s worst year in 2018, winning less…...

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3 Players You Should Stop Drafting at ADP

  Being player agnostic is one of the best edges you can find in fantasy football in 2019 — don’t fall in love with a player, fall in love with his price. With the suite of RotoViz tools, finding this year’s most mispriced players is easier than ever. We already looked at some players that we think are being drafted too low. On the flip…...

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3 Deep Sleepers RotoViz Likes More Than You

  Being player agnostic is one of the best edges you can find in fantasy football in 2019 — don’t fall in love with a player, fall in love with his price. With the suite of RotoViz tools, finding this year’s most mispriced players is easier than ever, so let’s take a look at three deep sleepers we like more than the drafting public. By…...

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Contract Year RBs: Fantasy Appeal of the Walk Year Stars

  We’re back again to offer our thoughts on prominent contract year players at one of the fantasy footballs most important positions, namely running back. Yes, I know the popular theory is that they don’t matter. But getting a good one can be the reason you take home a fantasy crown. Drafting a bad one can be the reason you are swearing angrily at your…...

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Will Fuller Is the Ultimate Best Ball Target, and He’s Available at a Discount

  Consistency and upside are typically built into a player’s price during the draft, but other factors can sometimes lower the acquisition cost and turn a player into a value. Despite there being only a small sample size, Will Fuller has proven in the last two seasons that he’s a WR1 in games with Deshaun Watson. Even with the injury risks, he’s one of my favorite…...

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If You Pass on Christian McCaffrey, You Could Miss the Best Fantasy Season Ever

  As impressive as Christian McCaffrey’s 2018 was, we likely still haven’t seen his ceiling. How high is it? And does the Panthers running back have the potential to push for the greatest fantasy season ever? McCaffrey was the top-scoring RB in PPR leagues last year with 383 points. That’s the eighth-most points scored by a non-quarterback since the year 2000. Even better for fantasy…...

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Contract Year WRs: Fantasy Appeal of the Walk Year Stars

  Following on from my look at the fantasy appeal of quarterbacks heading into the final season of their current deals, attention is now turned towards wide receivers facing the same situation. We’ll be focusing on three players for whom the coming season represents a chance to earn a big payday in 2020. In their pursuits of new deals, I’ll offer my thoughts as to…...

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Zero RB or RB-Heavy in BestBall10s? The Roster Construction Explorer Gives Us the Shocking Results

  Over the last four years in the MFL10 of Death, Shawn Siegele has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 1st, using his signature Zero RB approach to bring home three titles. But were these wins the result of avoiding RBs early? Or did he win because of player selection and in spite of a structural approach that might be doing more harm than good? The…...

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