Neil Dutton

Lead Writer, soft spot for the tight end position. Will never stop loving Duke Johnson.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Wide Receiver Target Report: Week 10

The wide receivers in Week 10 certainly enjoyed a large workload, didn’t they? Seventeen wide receivers saw at least 10 targets, with nine of the players in question commanding a 30% target share within their own offenses. If there is one curiosity that emerged from this week, it is that in spite of so many players seeing so many targets, 11 of the players failed…...

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Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 11

Waiver Wire Dumpster Dives takes you beyond the obvious plays and helps you find undervalued gems for deep leagues. Did you survive bye-pocalypse with your playoff hopes intact? Now the waiver wire can start to become a little less cut-throat as some GMs throw in the towel on 2019. Don’t be that fantasy player. With some savvy matchup plays any team can go on a…...

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Nick Chubb Almost Destroys Week 10 and Christian McCaffrey Actually Destroys Everyone Else’s Fantasy Teams: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 10

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Christian Kirk Scores 3 Times and Headlines a WR FPOE Leaderboard That Features 4 Breakout Performances

Shawn Siegele looks at all of the top wide receiver performances from Week 10, including big games from Christian Kirk, Darius Slayton, and Amari Cooper. It was a banner Sunday in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). Five of the top-eight scores came from rookies or second-year players. Two of those top-eight scores were fueled by another rookie. Daniel Jones led a quartet of young QBs…...

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High Staked: What Went Wrong

Veteran high stakes fantasy football player Monty Phan chronicles his season. I can officially say things didn’t work out this season like we’d hoped. For the first time since 2014, none of the FFPC high-stakes teams I run with three friends are likely to advance to the league playoffs or compete for the big money. The breaks we’ve benefitted from the past few seasons didn’t…...

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Week 11 Waiver Wire Advice: Top Targets At Each Position

Looking for Week 10 waiver wire advice for fantasy football? You’ve come to the right place. We’ll give you some of the top targets at each position so that when you submit a waiver claim, you do it with confidence. This article will run through the top players available in most leagues.((If a player is already owned in over 50% of leagues, he won’t be…...

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Week 10 Primetime Slate DFS Breakdown

Who are the best plays for the Week 10 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.((An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit…...

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Week 10 Yahoo! DFS Picks

Identifying my Week 10 NFL DFS picks was easier than it’s ever been thanks to the continued work of our apps development team. The NFL Stat Explorer, the DFS Lineup Optimizer, and our world-famous Game Splits App are three windows I never close on my screen. Let’s build a plan of attack for Yahoo! DFS using my favorite research tools. Yahoo! NFL DFS is a…...

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NFL FanDuel GPPs: What The Lineup Optimizer Is Telling Us To Do in Week 10

Michael Dubner uses the DFS Lineup Optimizer and other RotoViz tools to prepare for Week 10 GPPs on FanDuel. Large-field GPPs are primarily won in three key areas: 1) player projections, 2) roster construction, and 3) ownership. Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to concentrate on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once…...

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College Football DFS Main Slate: Week 11

Welcome to college football DFS for Week 11 and another main slate take down. This is your one stop shop for Cash and GPP plays for the main slate of this crazy CFB weekend! If you’ve been following along this season, we’ve had some crazy high hit rates on our player pools, but if you have any questions on Player X versus Player Y feel…...

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Curtis Samuel is Either Really Bad or About to Explode

If you checked out my article on Terry McLaurin a few weeks ago (and by the way, this is the perfect time to be sending offers for the breakout deep threat), you’ll remember I discussed the idea of aDOT adjusted RACR as part of my profile on McLaurin. If not, here’s a brief refresher. Receiver air conversion rate (RACR), a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer,…...

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Week 10 DraftKings Targets: Don’t Overthink The Smash Game

Week 9 was a smashing success: the Lions and Seahawks passing games got us everywhere we needed to be. We also got there with help from Zach Ertz, Damien Williams and Christian McCaffrey in tournaments. Cash is now eight for nine on the season and this week is set up to keep it rolling. We have another short slate here in week 10, just 10…...

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Tomorrow’s Moves Today – Week 6: Leveraging SOS and Team-Level Trends to Stay Ahead of the Competition

Tomorrow’s Moves Today uses the Strength of Schedule Streaming App to identify team positional units with favorable/unfavorable upcoming schedules and players on related teams that should be targeted or avoided. Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Tomorrow’s Moves Today! On a weekly basis, we’ll look ahead to find positional units with favorable upcoming schedules. Likewise, we’ll identify positional units that stand before an oncoming gauntlet. The…...

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Dollars Per Opportunity: Kirk’s Get Right Spot

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our Game Level Similarity Projections to find the hidden DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Week 9 Yahoo! DFS. It was a very good week for the article as a lot of plays ended up hitting albeit both Chris Godwin and Robby Anderson really disappointing in…...

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FanDuel NFL Cash Plays – Week 10

The Fantasy Football Ghost has scored big for us all season long, let’s see what he has in store for Week 10! Just as I had hoped last week, Week 9 delivered in a big way, building on the success we saw in Week 8. Last week the plays of Matthew Stafford (3.2 times value), Dalvin Cook (1.51 times value), Tyler Lockett (a whopping 4.49 times value!), and Hunter Henry (1.86 times value)…...

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Bracket Busting: Making Our Points

High-stakes writers Monty Phan and John Lapinski chronicle their entry in the FFPC Super Bracket contest. When our family goes around the table to say what we’re thankful for this Thanksgiving, I have my answer: the FFPC playoff seeding system that rewards high-scoring teams instead of only those with the best record. That’s right. While everyone else says stock answers like “I’m thankful for my…...

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DK Buffet Week 10: Key Stats for the Main Slate on DraftKings

When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS purposes, for either a positive or negative reason. These situations inform us of how we should be attacking each slate. Arizona Cardinals Spread: +4.5 @ Tampa Bay |…...

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When The Devy Breaks: Chris Olave Is Set Up For A Monster Season In 2020

Welcome back to When The Devy Breaks, your weekly rundown of the college football landscape and how it affects your devy league rosters. Here are a few quick storylines from last weekend’s slate of action: Miami (FL) went to Tallahassee and beat rival Florida State 27-10, which ending up being the final game for former Seminoles’ head coach Willie Taggart. Georgia QB Jake Fromm was…...

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Group of Five Devy Rundown: Week 10

Even as we prepare for college football’s “game of the year,” it’s a great time to look for devy prospects at all levels. The Group of Five received some of the spotlight in Memphis’s win over SMU. Quarterback Stephen Calvert, QB Liberty Playing against UMass will make any competent FBS offense look like a juggernaut.((I should have considered this more before I gave out the…...

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Tyler Lockett, WR Win Rates, and A Look at the Preferred Best Ball Construction

Shawn Siegele examines the BestBall win rates for wide receivers, looks at big games from Tyler Lockett and Mohamed Sanu, and takes a round-by-round look at the preferred roster construction from the Best Ball Workshop. Each week in my adventures down the rabbit hole of the Best Ball Win Rates tool, I like to choose a specific position or question for closer examination. Last week we analyzed…...

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Wide Receiver Target Report: Week 10

The wide receivers in Week 10 certainly enjoyed a large workload, didn’t they? Seventeen wide receivers saw at least 10 targets, with nine of the players in question commanding a 30% target share within their own offenses. If there is one curiosity that emerged from this week, it is that in spite of so many players seeing so many targets, 11 of the players failed…...

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Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 11

Waiver Wire Dumpster Dives takes you beyond the obvious plays and helps you find undervalued gems for deep leagues. Did you survive bye-pocalypse with your playoff hopes intact? Now the waiver wire can start to become a little less cut-throat as some GMs throw in the towel on 2019. Don’t be that fantasy player. With some savvy matchup plays any team can go on a…...

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Nick Chubb Almost Destroys Week 10 and Christian McCaffrey Actually Destroys Everyone Else’s Fantasy Teams: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 10

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Christian Kirk Scores 3 Times and Headlines a WR FPOE Leaderboard That Features 4 Breakout Performances

Shawn Siegele looks at all of the top wide receiver performances from Week 10, including big games from Christian Kirk, Darius Slayton, and Amari Cooper. It was a banner Sunday in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). Five of the top-eight scores came from rookies or second-year players. Two of those top-eight scores were fueled by another rookie. Daniel Jones led a quartet of young QBs…...

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High Staked: What Went Wrong

Veteran high stakes fantasy football player Monty Phan chronicles his season. I can officially say things didn’t work out this season like we’d hoped. For the first time since 2014, none of the FFPC high-stakes teams I run with three friends are likely to advance to the league playoffs or compete for the big money. The breaks we’ve benefitted from the past few seasons didn’t…...

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Week 11 Waiver Wire Advice: Top Targets At Each Position

Looking for Week 10 waiver wire advice for fantasy football? You’ve come to the right place. We’ll give you some of the top targets at each position so that when you submit a waiver claim, you do it with confidence. This article will run through the top players available in most leagues.((If a player is already owned in over 50% of leagues, he won’t be…...

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Week 10 Primetime Slate DFS Breakdown

Who are the best plays for the Week 10 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.((An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit…...

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Week 10 Yahoo! DFS Picks

Identifying my Week 10 NFL DFS picks was easier than it’s ever been thanks to the continued work of our apps development team. The NFL Stat Explorer, the DFS Lineup Optimizer, and our world-famous Game Splits App are three windows I never close on my screen. Let’s build a plan of attack for Yahoo! DFS using my favorite research tools. Yahoo! NFL DFS is a…...

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NFL FanDuel GPPs: What The Lineup Optimizer Is Telling Us To Do in Week 10

Michael Dubner uses the DFS Lineup Optimizer and other RotoViz tools to prepare for Week 10 GPPs on FanDuel. Large-field GPPs are primarily won in three key areas: 1) player projections, 2) roster construction, and 3) ownership. Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to concentrate on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once…...

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College Football DFS Main Slate: Week 11

Welcome to college football DFS for Week 11 and another main slate take down. This is your one stop shop for Cash and GPP plays for the main slate of this crazy CFB weekend! If you’ve been following along this season, we’ve had some crazy high hit rates on our player pools, but if you have any questions on Player X versus Player Y feel…...

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Curtis Samuel is Either Really Bad or About to Explode

If you checked out my article on Terry McLaurin a few weeks ago (and by the way, this is the perfect time to be sending offers for the breakout deep threat), you’ll remember I discussed the idea of aDOT adjusted RACR as part of my profile on McLaurin. If not, here’s a brief refresher. Receiver air conversion rate (RACR), a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer,…...

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Week 10 DraftKings Targets: Don’t Overthink The Smash Game

Week 9 was a smashing success: the Lions and Seahawks passing games got us everywhere we needed to be. We also got there with help from Zach Ertz, Damien Williams and Christian McCaffrey in tournaments. Cash is now eight for nine on the season and this week is set up to keep it rolling. We have another short slate here in week 10, just 10…...

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Tomorrow’s Moves Today – Week 6: Leveraging SOS and Team-Level Trends to Stay Ahead of the Competition

Tomorrow’s Moves Today uses the Strength of Schedule Streaming App to identify team positional units with favorable/unfavorable upcoming schedules and players on related teams that should be targeted or avoided. Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Tomorrow’s Moves Today! On a weekly basis, we’ll look ahead to find positional units with favorable upcoming schedules. Likewise, we’ll identify positional units that stand before an oncoming gauntlet. The…...

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Dollars Per Opportunity: Kirk’s Get Right Spot

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our Game Level Similarity Projections to find the hidden DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Week 9 Yahoo! DFS. It was a very good week for the article as a lot of plays ended up hitting albeit both Chris Godwin and Robby Anderson really disappointing in…...

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FanDuel NFL Cash Plays – Week 10

The Fantasy Football Ghost has scored big for us all season long, let’s see what he has in store for Week 10! Just as I had hoped last week, Week 9 delivered in a big way, building on the success we saw in Week 8. Last week the plays of Matthew Stafford (3.2 times value), Dalvin Cook (1.51 times value), Tyler Lockett (a whopping 4.49 times value!), and Hunter Henry (1.86 times value)…...

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Bracket Busting: Making Our Points

High-stakes writers Monty Phan and John Lapinski chronicle their entry in the FFPC Super Bracket contest. When our family goes around the table to say what we’re thankful for this Thanksgiving, I have my answer: the FFPC playoff seeding system that rewards high-scoring teams instead of only those with the best record. That’s right. While everyone else says stock answers like “I’m thankful for my…...

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DK Buffet Week 10: Key Stats for the Main Slate on DraftKings

When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS purposes, for either a positive or negative reason. These situations inform us of how we should be attacking each slate. Arizona Cardinals Spread: +4.5 @ Tampa Bay |…...

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When The Devy Breaks: Chris Olave Is Set Up For A Monster Season In 2020

Welcome back to When The Devy Breaks, your weekly rundown of the college football landscape and how it affects your devy league rosters. Here are a few quick storylines from last weekend’s slate of action: Miami (FL) went to Tallahassee and beat rival Florida State 27-10, which ending up being the final game for former Seminoles’ head coach Willie Taggart. Georgia QB Jake Fromm was…...

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Group of Five Devy Rundown: Week 10

Even as we prepare for college football’s “game of the year,” it’s a great time to look for devy prospects at all levels. The Group of Five received some of the spotlight in Memphis’s win over SMU. Quarterback Stephen Calvert, QB Liberty Playing against UMass will make any competent FBS offense look like a juggernaut.((I should have considered this more before I gave out the…...

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Tyler Lockett, WR Win Rates, and A Look at the Preferred Best Ball Construction

Shawn Siegele examines the BestBall win rates for wide receivers, looks at big games from Tyler Lockett and Mohamed Sanu, and takes a round-by-round look at the preferred roster construction from the Best Ball Workshop. Each week in my adventures down the rabbit hole of the Best Ball Win Rates tool, I like to choose a specific position or question for closer examination. Last week we analyzed…...

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Wide Receiver Target Report: Week 10

The wide receivers in Week 10 certainly enjoyed a large workload, didn’t they? Seventeen wide receivers saw at least 10 targets, with nine of the players in question commanding a 30% target share within their own offenses. If there is one curiosity that emerged from this week, it is that in spite of so many players seeing so many targets, 11 of the players failed…...

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Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 11

Waiver Wire Dumpster Dives takes you beyond the obvious plays and helps you find undervalued gems for deep leagues. Did you survive bye-pocalypse with your playoff hopes intact? Now the waiver wire can start to become a little less cut-throat as some GMs throw in the towel on 2019. Don’t be that fantasy player. With some savvy matchup plays any team can go on a…...

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Nick Chubb Almost Destroys Week 10 and Christian McCaffrey Actually Destroys Everyone Else’s Fantasy Teams: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 10

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can…...

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Christian Kirk Scores 3 Times and Headlines a WR FPOE Leaderboard That Features 4 Breakout Performances

Shawn Siegele looks at all of the top wide receiver performances from Week 10, including big games from Christian Kirk, Darius Slayton, and Amari Cooper. It was a banner Sunday in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). Five of the top-eight scores came from rookies or second-year players. Two of those top-eight scores were fueled by another rookie. Daniel Jones led a quartet of young QBs…...

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High Staked: What Went Wrong

Veteran high stakes fantasy football player Monty Phan chronicles his season. I can officially say things didn’t work out this season like we’d hoped. For the first time since 2014, none of the FFPC high-stakes teams I run with three friends are likely to advance to the league playoffs or compete for the big money. The breaks we’ve benefitted from the past few seasons didn’t…...

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Week 11 Waiver Wire Advice: Top Targets At Each Position

Looking for Week 10 waiver wire advice for fantasy football? You’ve come to the right place. We’ll give you some of the top targets at each position so that when you submit a waiver claim, you do it with confidence. This article will run through the top players available in most leagues.((If a player is already owned in over 50% of leagues, he won’t be…...

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Week 10 Primetime Slate DFS Breakdown

Who are the best plays for the Week 10 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.((An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit…...

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Week 10 Yahoo! DFS Picks

Identifying my Week 10 NFL DFS picks was easier than it’s ever been thanks to the continued work of our apps development team. The NFL Stat Explorer, the DFS Lineup Optimizer, and our world-famous Game Splits App are three windows I never close on my screen. Let’s build a plan of attack for Yahoo! DFS using my favorite research tools. Yahoo! NFL DFS is a…...

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NFL FanDuel GPPs: What The Lineup Optimizer Is Telling Us To Do in Week 10

Michael Dubner uses the DFS Lineup Optimizer and other RotoViz tools to prepare for Week 10 GPPs on FanDuel. Large-field GPPs are primarily won in three key areas: 1) player projections, 2) roster construction, and 3) ownership. Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to concentrate on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once…...

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College Football DFS Main Slate: Week 11

Welcome to college football DFS for Week 11 and another main slate take down. This is your one stop shop for Cash and GPP plays for the main slate of this crazy CFB weekend! If you’ve been following along this season, we’ve had some crazy high hit rates on our player pools, but if you have any questions on Player X versus Player Y feel…...

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Curtis Samuel is Either Really Bad or About to Explode

If you checked out my article on Terry McLaurin a few weeks ago (and by the way, this is the perfect time to be sending offers for the breakout deep threat), you’ll remember I discussed the idea of aDOT adjusted RACR as part of my profile on McLaurin. If not, here’s a brief refresher. Receiver air conversion rate (RACR), a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer,…...

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Week 10 DraftKings Targets: Don’t Overthink The Smash Game

Week 9 was a smashing success: the Lions and Seahawks passing games got us everywhere we needed to be. We also got there with help from Zach Ertz, Damien Williams and Christian McCaffrey in tournaments. Cash is now eight for nine on the season and this week is set up to keep it rolling. We have another short slate here in week 10, just 10…...

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Tomorrow’s Moves Today – Week 6: Leveraging SOS and Team-Level Trends to Stay Ahead of the Competition

Tomorrow’s Moves Today uses the Strength of Schedule Streaming App to identify team positional units with favorable/unfavorable upcoming schedules and players on related teams that should be targeted or avoided. Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Tomorrow’s Moves Today! On a weekly basis, we’ll look ahead to find positional units with favorable upcoming schedules. Likewise, we’ll identify positional units that stand before an oncoming gauntlet. The…...

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Dollars Per Opportunity: Kirk’s Get Right Spot

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our Game Level Similarity Projections to find the hidden DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Week 9 Yahoo! DFS. It was a very good week for the article as a lot of plays ended up hitting albeit both Chris Godwin and Robby Anderson really disappointing in…...

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FanDuel NFL Cash Plays – Week 10

The Fantasy Football Ghost has scored big for us all season long, let’s see what he has in store for Week 10! Just as I had hoped last week, Week 9 delivered in a big way, building on the success we saw in Week 8. Last week the plays of Matthew Stafford (3.2 times value), Dalvin Cook (1.51 times value), Tyler Lockett (a whopping 4.49 times value!), and Hunter Henry (1.86 times value)…...

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Bracket Busting: Making Our Points

High-stakes writers Monty Phan and John Lapinski chronicle their entry in the FFPC Super Bracket contest. When our family goes around the table to say what we’re thankful for this Thanksgiving, I have my answer: the FFPC playoff seeding system that rewards high-scoring teams instead of only those with the best record. That’s right. While everyone else says stock answers like “I’m thankful for my…...

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DK Buffet Week 10: Key Stats for the Main Slate on DraftKings

When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS purposes, for either a positive or negative reason. These situations inform us of how we should be attacking each slate. Arizona Cardinals Spread: +4.5 @ Tampa Bay |…...

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When The Devy Breaks: Chris Olave Is Set Up For A Monster Season In 2020

Welcome back to When The Devy Breaks, your weekly rundown of the college football landscape and how it affects your devy league rosters. Here are a few quick storylines from last weekend’s slate of action: Miami (FL) went to Tallahassee and beat rival Florida State 27-10, which ending up being the final game for former Seminoles’ head coach Willie Taggart. Georgia QB Jake Fromm was…...

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Group of Five Devy Rundown: Week 10

Even as we prepare for college football’s “game of the year,” it’s a great time to look for devy prospects at all levels. The Group of Five received some of the spotlight in Memphis’s win over SMU. Quarterback Stephen Calvert, QB Liberty Playing against UMass will make any competent FBS offense look like a juggernaut.((I should have considered this more before I gave out the…...

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Tyler Lockett, WR Win Rates, and A Look at the Preferred Best Ball Construction

Shawn Siegele examines the BestBall win rates for wide receivers, looks at big games from Tyler Lockett and Mohamed Sanu, and takes a round-by-round look at the preferred roster construction from the Best Ball Workshop. Each week in my adventures down the rabbit hole of the Best Ball Win Rates tool, I like to choose a specific position or question for closer examination. Last week we analyzed…...

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