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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Catch Passes to Beat the Masses: Why Pass-Catching is the Key to Identifying Late-Round RB Breakouts

Player evaluation is hard. That’s a truth we’ll have to deal with a lot over the next week, as the 2020 NFL Draft begins on Thursday. Sticking with the draft idea for a minute, we know that there are certain thresholds prospects have to meet to have a respectable likelihood of success at the next level. For example, if a wide receiver doesn’t break out in college, their professional prospects are usually pretty dire. These thresholds make it a lot easier for us because we can simply look at which players meet them and know that they have a better…...

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is, how do we best measure a metric’s real impact? In a surprise to no one, Henry Ruggs ran a 4.27 forty at the NFL combine. If you’re moving Ruggs up your board after he showed…...

Examining Wide Receiver Production After a Team Change: Can You Trust Odell Beckham in 2020?

Odell Beckham was primed to go absolutely nuts. He had never averaged fewer than 75.5 yards per game in a season and had consistently been an elite WR1 when healthy. And he did it with Eli Manning at quarterback. Now that he had Baker Mayfield — who was coming off of a season in which he set the rookie passing touchdown record — the sky appeared to be the limit for Beckham. He looked locked and loaded to be a WR1 per usual. Turned out he wasn’t even the WR1 on his own team, as Jarvis Landry paced Cleveland wide receivers in…...

Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind that negative numbers are good for age and draft position. You want a player to be younger and drafted earlier. First, let me explain what some of these metrics are. Many are self-explanatory, but some…...

Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look at how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

The 3 and 10 Rule – A Pair of Rookie Wide Receiver Metrics with an Astonishing Hit Rate

Author’s Note, August 2, 2019: so this piece can be used for research, I’ve changed the title and updated the piece with findings for 22-year old rookies since the year 2000. This piece originally posted on June 17, 2019 and featured only the 21-year-old findings. In my opinion, the RotoViz Screener is the most powerful, most useful, and most creative research tool in the fantasy football industry. It can be used to query just about anything your mind can conjure up. When you have a database with every NFL play dating back to 2000, the possibilities are endless. I planned to use…...

draftkings week 17

Limit the Onesie Positions in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues

In the second installment of the DRAFT NFL Best Ball Roster Construction Guide, Michael Dubner finds a structural advantage using the 2-QB, 2-TE draft strategy. In my previous article, we found the one instance where the 3-QB, 3-TE Roster construction may provide a structural edge in DRAFT Best Ball leagues. Now that we’ve explored the roster construction that dedicates six spots to the onesie positions, we’ll now explore the opposite end of the spectrum, and see if we gain an edge by only dedicating four roster spots to the onesie positions with 2-QBs and 2-TEs. RotoViz legend Shawn Siegele has recently looked at BestBall10s…...

week 10 fantasy

You Really Can Win Your BestBall10s Solely at the Onesie Positions

So far in the Best Ball Workshop we’ve focused on the onesie positions: quarterback, tight end, and defense. And while there are some big reveals coming at running back and wide receiver, it makes sense to stop here for a moment and ask the question: Can you win your BestBall10s simply by playing the percentages with the onesies? The workshops have been based on a combination of the strategy sessions we’ve run here at RotoViz since our inception, and the Roster Construction Explorer which helps us test whether our advice has worked. Do the results follow the logic? Are results…...

FFPC Best Ball Roster Construction: Where to Draft Winning QBs

Whether you’re new to the TE-premium format, or a grizzled veteran of hundreds of FFPC best ball leagues, knowing how to attack the quarterback position is crucial. Where did last year’s winning FFPC best ball teams draft their QBs? Can you get by with just two studs? What happens if I miss out on the QB run? We now have the tools here at RotoViz to answer those questions. Mike Beers has brought us his suite of best ball tools where you can now use the Roster Construction Explorer to optimize your roster builds and the ADP and Exposure tool…...

How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55

Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most important WR metrics apart from draft position — the skeleton key of WR prospect evaluation. But we can calculate it in several ways, using different thresholds and different production metrics. Do these different methods make a difference? Which metrics should we use when measuring receiving production? Where should we set…...

Catch Passes to Beat the Masses: Why Pass-Catching is the Key to Identifying Late-Round RB Breakouts

Player evaluation is hard. That’s a truth we’ll have to deal with a lot over the next week, as the 2020 NFL Draft begins on Thursday. Sticking with the draft idea for a minute, we know that there are certain thresholds prospects have to meet to have a respectable likelihood of success at the next level. For example, if a wide receiver doesn’t break out in college, their professional prospects are usually pretty dire. These thresholds make it a lot easier for us because we can simply look at which players meet them and know that they have a better…...

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on the other hand, that last sentence can’t possibly be literally true. So the question is, how do we best measure a metric’s real impact? In a surprise to no one, Henry Ruggs ran a 4.27 forty at the NFL combine. If you’re moving Ruggs up your board after he showed…...

Examining Wide Receiver Production After a Team Change: Can You Trust Odell Beckham in 2020?

Odell Beckham was primed to go absolutely nuts. He had never averaged fewer than 75.5 yards per game in a season and had consistently been an elite WR1 when healthy. And he did it with Eli Manning at quarterback. Now that he had Baker Mayfield — who was coming off of a season in which he set the rookie passing touchdown record — the sky appeared to be the limit for Beckham. He looked locked and loaded to be a WR1 per usual. Turned out he wasn’t even the WR1 on his own team, as Jarvis Landry paced Cleveland wide receivers in…...

Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a number of interesting things going on here, which I’ll point out below. Keep in mind that negative numbers are good for age and draft position. You want a player to be younger and drafted earlier. First, let me explain what some of these metrics are. Many are self-explanatory, but some…...

Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look at how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

The 3 and 10 Rule – A Pair of Rookie Wide Receiver Metrics with an Astonishing Hit Rate

Author’s Note, August 2, 2019: so this piece can be used for research, I’ve changed the title and updated the piece with findings for 22-year old rookies since the year 2000. This piece originally posted on June 17, 2019 and featured only the 21-year-old findings. In my opinion, the RotoViz Screener is the most powerful, most useful, and most creative research tool in the fantasy football industry. It can be used to query just about anything your mind can conjure up. When you have a database with every NFL play dating back to 2000, the possibilities are endless. I planned to use…...

draftkings week 17

Limit the Onesie Positions in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues

In the second installment of the DRAFT NFL Best Ball Roster Construction Guide, Michael Dubner finds a structural advantage using the 2-QB, 2-TE draft strategy. In my previous article, we found the one instance where the 3-QB, 3-TE Roster construction may provide a structural edge in DRAFT Best Ball leagues. Now that we’ve explored the roster construction that dedicates six spots to the onesie positions, we’ll now explore the opposite end of the spectrum, and see if we gain an edge by only dedicating four roster spots to the onesie positions with 2-QBs and 2-TEs. RotoViz legend Shawn Siegele has recently looked at BestBall10s…...

week 10 fantasy

You Really Can Win Your BestBall10s Solely at the Onesie Positions

So far in the Best Ball Workshop we’ve focused on the onesie positions: quarterback, tight end, and defense. And while there are some big reveals coming at running back and wide receiver, it makes sense to stop here for a moment and ask the question: Can you win your BestBall10s simply by playing the percentages with the onesies? The workshops have been based on a combination of the strategy sessions we’ve run here at RotoViz since our inception, and the Roster Construction Explorer which helps us test whether our advice has worked. Do the results follow the logic? Are results…...

FFPC Best Ball Roster Construction: Where to Draft Winning QBs

Whether you’re new to the TE-premium format, or a grizzled veteran of hundreds of FFPC best ball leagues, knowing how to attack the quarterback position is crucial. Where did last year’s winning FFPC best ball teams draft their QBs? Can you get by with just two studs? What happens if I miss out on the QB run? We now have the tools here at RotoViz to answer those questions. Mike Beers has brought us his suite of best ball tools where you can now use the Roster Construction Explorer to optimize your roster builds and the ADP and Exposure tool…...

How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55

Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most important WR metrics apart from draft position — the skeleton key of WR prospect evaluation. But we can calculate it in several ways, using different thresholds and different production metrics. Do these different methods make a difference? Which metrics should we use when measuring receiving production? Where should we set…...

Does Hand Size Matter for Wide Receivers? The Wrong Read, No. 61

Welcome to the 61st installment of The Wrong Read. Shawn Siegele’s recent article on 2020 Freak Scores linked to some classic work by Fantasy Douche that renewed my interest in wide receiver hand size. We know, on the one hand, that production is all that matters for WRs. But on…...

Which WR Prospect Metrics Tell Us Something Unique? The Wrong Read, No. 60

I seem to have become obsessed with correlation matrices, so I’m just going to lean into it. Below you’ll find a correlation matrix with many of our favorite WR prospect evaluation metrics. This is admittedly a simplistic way to look at the predictiveness of various metrics. But there are a…...

Why Do We Care About Expected Points? An Explanation in 4 Correlation Matrices

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform…...

draftkings week 17

Limit the Onesie Positions in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues

In the second installment of the DRAFT NFL Best Ball Roster Construction Guide, Michael Dubner finds a structural advantage using the 2-QB, 2-TE draft strategy. In my previous article, we found the one instance where the 3-QB, 3-TE Roster construction may provide a structural edge in DRAFT Best Ball leagues. Now that we’ve explored…...

week 10 fantasy

You Really Can Win Your BestBall10s Solely at the Onesie Positions

So far in the Best Ball Workshop we’ve focused on the onesie positions: quarterback, tight end, and defense. And while there are some big reveals coming at running back and wide receiver, it makes sense to stop here for a moment and ask the question: Can you win your BestBall10s…...

FFPC Best Ball Roster Construction: Where to Draft Winning QBs

Whether you’re new to the TE-premium format, or a grizzled veteran of hundreds of FFPC best ball leagues, knowing how to attack the quarterback position is crucial. Where did last year’s winning FFPC best ball teams draft their QBs? Can you get by with just two studs? What happens if…...

How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55

Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most…...

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