Dave Caban

Senior Fantasy Analyst, app developer, hosts the RotoViz Radio Flagship, auction draft enthusiast.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Interpreting Combine Results, Making Sense of Athletic Profiles, and Using the RotoViz Combine Explorer

  What are the pros and cons of combine data, how should it be used, and what can athletic profiles tell us? Dave Caban uses the RotoViz Combine Explorer to answer these questions. The NFL scouting combine will always have a special place in the metaphorical heart of RotoViz. In many respects, it’s the only controlled environment in which football-related data is gathered and in…...

The QB in BestBall10s: One Key Mistake Dooms a Flood of Owners, Plus An Unusual Tactic Pays Big Dividends

The Fanball Roster Construction Explorer allows you to pull back the curtain and experiment with the most and least successful roster constructions over the past four years. Quarterback tactics are often overlooked in best ball, but that oversight has led many owners into a critical mistake. Shawn Siegele also demonstrates an unusual tactic to boost your win rate and improve your structural edge as he…...

Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz Want You To Quit Blowing the Tight End Position in BestBall10s

Travis Kelce was one of three tight ends with gaudy numbers and a similarly impressive win rate in 2018. The TE position often gets lost in the shuffle due to its status as a lower-scoring, “onesie” position, but compelling evidence suggests that what you do at TE can dictate your results. In the Best Ball Workshop: Lesson 2, Shawn Siegele will dive into the Roster…...

TE-Premium Roster Construction: Where to Draft Winning TEs

Whether you’re new to the TE-premium format, or a grizzled veteran of hundreds of FFPC best ball leagues, knowing how to attack the tight end position is crucial. Where did last year’s winning FFPC best ball teams draft their TEs? Can you get by with just two studs? Is there an advantage to loading up at the position? We now have the tools here at…...

One Weird Trick for Finding Top WR Prospects: Early Declaration and Draft Age – The Wrong Read, No. 53

Welcome to the 53rd installment of The Wrong Read. Does draft age really matter for wide receiver prospects? The truth may surprise you — at least if you’ve been following this column for a little while. As Karl Popper put it, the most important evolutionary advantage of the argumentative use of language is that it “allows us to let theories die in our stead.” In…...

Good Players Are Good: Why You Should Chase Rookie-Year Efficiency at RB – The Wrong Read, No. 52

Welcome to the 52nd installment of The Wrong Read. Based on the number of articles appearing in this “weekly” series, one year has passed since we started. Strangely it’s taken about 16 months to get here. The thing is, time slows down as you approach a massive object like the black hole that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers football team. Ronald Jones is evidently on…...

The Anatomy of WR Bouncebacks – The Wrong Read, No. 46

Welcome to the 46th installment of the “The Wrong Read.”  RotoViz writers have been profiling a lot of intriguing bounceback candidates. But there are a lot of players who underperformed expectations last year that we haven’t talked about, and a lot of fantasy owners expecting more in 2018. So what chance does the typical wide receiver have to bounce back after a down year?…...

Draft Rookies for Safety and Upside – The Wrong Read, No. 41

Welcome to the 41st installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

How Accurate is Average Draft Position? The Wrong Read, No. 38

Welcome to the 38th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Where Have All the WRs Gone?

Originally published February 27, Where Have All the WRs Gone is part of our Memorial Day look at the best of RotoViz. 2017 was a rough season for fantasy wide receivers and could be indicative of a downward trend for the position…....

Dynasty Rookies Are Free Money

Originally published March 23, Dynasty Rookies Are Free Money is part of our Memorial Day weekend free look at the best of RotoViz. Sharp dynasty owners will probably tell you that rookies are overrated and proven producers are the ones who’ll win you a title. Don’t listen to them…....

Rethinking NFL Age Curves for WRs – The Wrong Read, No. 33

Welcome to the 33rd installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Fantasy Football Pocket Drafting

Projecting Upside: The Predictability of Receiving Touchdowns

If targets are the lifeblood of fantasy scoring and the addition of air yards helps us explain 80 percent of a wide receiver’s receiving yards, then volume can be viewed as the force that drives opportunity to collect fantasy points. But touchdowns act as the fantasy point multiplier. Therefore, it’s valuable to determine what is and what isn’t predictive of touchdown scoring. Methodology Wide receivers from 2008 to…...

Wide Receiver Breakouts: How Long Should You Hold On? – The Wrong Read, No. 36

Welcome to the 36th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Running Back Age Curves, Breakout Rates, and Failure Rates – The Wrong Read, No. 35

Welcome to the 35th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes…....

Age Curves and NFL Breakouts: How to Win in Dynasty – The Wrong Read, No. 34

Welcome to the 34th installment of “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train of…...

Hidden Receiving Ability: 2018 RBs and the Backfield Dominator Rating

In the past we’ve measured RB contributions in the receiving game in one of two ways. Either we measure their raw counting stats — i.e., the total number of receptions and receiving yards (which does have predictive value) — or we measure their receiving contribution as a percentage of team receiving production, via the College Dominator Rating. Both have drawbacks that make them less-than-perfect measurements…...

Interpreting Combine Results, Making Sense of Athletic Profiles, and Using the RotoViz Combine Explorer

  What are the pros and cons of combine data, how should it be used, and what can athletic profiles tell us? Dave Caban uses the RotoViz Combine Explorer to answer these questions. The NFL scouting combine will always have a special place in the metaphorical heart of RotoViz. In many respects, it’s the only controlled environment in which football-related data is gathered and in…...

The QB in BestBall10s: One Key Mistake Dooms a Flood of Owners, Plus An Unusual Tactic Pays Big Dividends

The Fanball Roster Construction Explorer allows you to pull back the curtain and experiment with the most and least successful roster constructions over the past four years. Quarterback tactics are often overlooked in best ball, but that oversight has led many owners into a critical mistake. Shawn Siegele also demonstrates an unusual tactic to boost your win rate and improve your structural edge as he…...

Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz Want You To Quit Blowing the Tight End Position in BestBall10s

Travis Kelce was one of three tight ends with gaudy numbers and a similarly impressive win rate in 2018. The TE position often gets lost in the shuffle due to its status as a lower-scoring, “onesie” position, but compelling evidence suggests that what you do at TE can dictate your results. In the Best Ball Workshop: Lesson 2, Shawn Siegele will dive into the Roster…...

TE-Premium Roster Construction: Where to Draft Winning TEs

Whether you’re new to the TE-premium format, or a grizzled veteran of hundreds of FFPC best ball leagues, knowing how to attack the tight end position is crucial. Where did last year’s winning FFPC best ball teams draft their TEs? Can you get by with just two studs? Is there an advantage to loading up at the position? We now have the tools here at…...

One Weird Trick for Finding Top WR Prospects: Early Declaration and Draft Age – The Wrong Read, No. 53

Welcome to the 53rd installment of The Wrong Read. Does draft age really matter for wide receiver prospects? The truth may surprise you — at least if you’ve been following this column for a little while. As Karl Popper put it, the most important evolutionary advantage of the argumentative use of language is that it “allows us to let theories die in our stead.” In…...

Good Players Are Good: Why You Should Chase Rookie-Year Efficiency at RB – The Wrong Read, No. 52

Welcome to the 52nd installment of The Wrong Read. Based on the number of articles appearing in this “weekly” series, one year has passed since we started. Strangely it’s taken about 16 months to get here. The thing is, time slows down as you approach a massive object like the black hole that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers football team. Ronald Jones is evidently on…...

The Anatomy of WR Bouncebacks – The Wrong Read, No. 46

Welcome to the 46th installment of the “The Wrong Read.”  RotoViz writers have been profiling a lot of intriguing bounceback candidates. But there are a lot of players who underperformed expectations last year that we haven’t talked about, and a lot of fantasy owners expecting more in 2018. So what chance does the typical wide receiver have to bounce back after a down year?…...

Draft Rookies for Safety and Upside – The Wrong Read, No. 41

Welcome to the 41st installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

How Accurate is Average Draft Position? The Wrong Read, No. 38

Welcome to the 38th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Where Have All the WRs Gone?

Originally published February 27, Where Have All the WRs Gone is part of our Memorial Day look at the best of RotoViz. 2017 was a rough season for fantasy wide receivers and could be indicative of a downward trend for the position…....

Dynasty Rookies Are Free Money

Originally published March 23, Dynasty Rookies Are Free Money is part of our Memorial Day weekend free look at the best of RotoViz. Sharp dynasty owners will probably tell you that rookies are overrated and proven producers are the ones who’ll win you a title. Don’t listen to them…....

Rethinking NFL Age Curves for WRs – The Wrong Read, No. 33

Welcome to the 33rd installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Fantasy Football Pocket Drafting

Projecting Upside: The Predictability of Receiving Touchdowns

If targets are the lifeblood of fantasy scoring and the addition of air yards helps us explain 80 percent of a wide receiver’s receiving yards, then volume can be viewed as the force that drives opportunity to collect fantasy points. But touchdowns act as the fantasy point multiplier. Therefore, it’s valuable to determine what is and what isn’t predictive of touchdown scoring. Methodology Wide receivers from 2008 to…...

Wide Receiver Breakouts: How Long Should You Hold On? – The Wrong Read, No. 36

Welcome to the 36th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Running Back Age Curves, Breakout Rates, and Failure Rates – The Wrong Read, No. 35

Welcome to the 35th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes…....

Age Curves and NFL Breakouts: How to Win in Dynasty – The Wrong Read, No. 34

Welcome to the 34th installment of “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train of…...

Hidden Receiving Ability: 2018 RBs and the Backfield Dominator Rating

In the past we’ve measured RB contributions in the receiving game in one of two ways. Either we measure their raw counting stats — i.e., the total number of receptions and receiving yards (which does have predictive value) — or we measure their receiving contribution as a percentage of team receiving production, via the College Dominator Rating. Both have drawbacks that make them less-than-perfect measurements…...

Interpreting Combine Results, Making Sense of Athletic Profiles, and Using the RotoViz Combine Explorer

  What are the pros and cons of combine data, how should it be used, and what can athletic profiles tell us? Dave Caban uses the RotoViz Combine Explorer to answer these questions. The NFL scouting combine will always have a special place in the metaphorical heart of RotoViz. In many respects, it’s the only controlled environment in which football-related data is gathered and in…...

The QB in BestBall10s: One Key Mistake Dooms a Flood of Owners, Plus An Unusual Tactic Pays Big Dividends

The Fanball Roster Construction Explorer allows you to pull back the curtain and experiment with the most and least successful roster constructions over the past four years. Quarterback tactics are often overlooked in best ball, but that oversight has led many owners into a critical mistake. Shawn Siegele also demonstrates an unusual tactic to boost your win rate and improve your structural edge as he…...

Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz Want You To Quit Blowing the Tight End Position in BestBall10s

Travis Kelce was one of three tight ends with gaudy numbers and a similarly impressive win rate in 2018. The TE position often gets lost in the shuffle due to its status as a lower-scoring, “onesie” position, but compelling evidence suggests that what you do at TE can dictate your results. In the Best Ball Workshop: Lesson 2, Shawn Siegele will dive into the Roster…...

TE-Premium Roster Construction: Where to Draft Winning TEs

Whether you’re new to the TE-premium format, or a grizzled veteran of hundreds of FFPC best ball leagues, knowing how to attack the tight end position is crucial. Where did last year’s winning FFPC best ball teams draft their TEs? Can you get by with just two studs? Is there an advantage to loading up at the position? We now have the tools here at…...

One Weird Trick for Finding Top WR Prospects: Early Declaration and Draft Age – The Wrong Read, No. 53

Welcome to the 53rd installment of The Wrong Read. Does draft age really matter for wide receiver prospects? The truth may surprise you — at least if you’ve been following this column for a little while. As Karl Popper put it, the most important evolutionary advantage of the argumentative use of language is that it “allows us to let theories die in our stead.” In…...

Good Players Are Good: Why You Should Chase Rookie-Year Efficiency at RB – The Wrong Read, No. 52

Welcome to the 52nd installment of The Wrong Read. Based on the number of articles appearing in this “weekly” series, one year has passed since we started. Strangely it’s taken about 16 months to get here. The thing is, time slows down as you approach a massive object like the black hole that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers football team. Ronald Jones is evidently on…...

The Anatomy of WR Bouncebacks – The Wrong Read, No. 46

Welcome to the 46th installment of the “The Wrong Read.”  RotoViz writers have been profiling a lot of intriguing bounceback candidates. But there are a lot of players who underperformed expectations last year that we haven’t talked about, and a lot of fantasy owners expecting more in 2018. So what chance does the typical wide receiver have to bounce back after a down year?…...

Draft Rookies for Safety and Upside – The Wrong Read, No. 41

Welcome to the 41st installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

How Accurate is Average Draft Position? The Wrong Read, No. 38

Welcome to the 38th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Where Have All the WRs Gone?

Originally published February 27, Where Have All the WRs Gone is part of our Memorial Day look at the best of RotoViz. 2017 was a rough season for fantasy wide receivers and could be indicative of a downward trend for the position…....

Dynasty Rookies Are Free Money

Originally published March 23, Dynasty Rookies Are Free Money is part of our Memorial Day weekend free look at the best of RotoViz. Sharp dynasty owners will probably tell you that rookies are overrated and proven producers are the ones who’ll win you a title. Don’t listen to them…....

Rethinking NFL Age Curves for WRs – The Wrong Read, No. 33

Welcome to the 33rd installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Fantasy Football Pocket Drafting

Projecting Upside: The Predictability of Receiving Touchdowns

If targets are the lifeblood of fantasy scoring and the addition of air yards helps us explain 80 percent of a wide receiver’s receiving yards, then volume can be viewed as the force that drives opportunity to collect fantasy points. But touchdowns act as the fantasy point multiplier. Therefore, it’s valuable to determine what is and what isn’t predictive of touchdown scoring. Methodology Wide receivers from 2008 to…...

Wide Receiver Breakouts: How Long Should You Hold On? – The Wrong Read, No. 36

Welcome to the 36th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Running Back Age Curves, Breakout Rates, and Failure Rates – The Wrong Read, No. 35

Welcome to the 35th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes…....

Age Curves and NFL Breakouts: How to Win in Dynasty – The Wrong Read, No. 34

Welcome to the 34th installment of “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train of…...

Hidden Receiving Ability: 2018 RBs and the Backfield Dominator Rating

In the past we’ve measured RB contributions in the receiving game in one of two ways. Either we measure their raw counting stats — i.e., the total number of receptions and receiving yards (which does have predictive value) — or we measure their receiving contribution as a percentage of team receiving production, via the College Dominator Rating. Both have drawbacks that make them less-than-perfect measurements…...

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