Fantasy football is a game of finding inefficiencies in the market. Armed with the MFL10 ADP app, we have the visual means to help us find the players who have the best chance at beating the market and paying off at their current cost in MFL10 best ball drafts.As part of an ongoing series, we’re counting down the best values in each round. Next up, Round 10.
Let’s take a stroll down to value town.
Coming off finishes of WR21 in 2016 and and WR37 last season, Rishard Matthews is the 50th WR off the board in 2018 with an overall ADP of 120.
Meanwhile, teammate Corey Davis has become a sixth-round fixture.
Both players are trending upward as drafters begin to recognize the value of a Tennessee passing game poised to rebound under former Rams offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur. However, the price difference between the two players seems predicated entirely on the younger receiver’s perceived potential.
On the field, their performances haven’t been particularly close, even in a down year for Matthews.
Davis is a popular breakout candidate, but the shine of a two-TD playoff game against the Patriots is blinding people from how truly awful his rookie season was.
Of 101 rookie WR seasons since 2007, Davis’ -29.9 reFPOE (receiving fantasy points over expectation) is the seventh-worst mark.
This is not to knock Davis, but assumptions that he’s going to overtake the veteran this year are premature. If he breaks out, he’ll be bucking the trend. Davis will be better in 2018, but after averaging 97 targets per season as a Titan, Matthews is the favorite to lead the team in that category for a third straight season.
He’s a phenomenal value in the 10th, and I’ve been happily snapping him up as early as the eighth and ninth rounds.
Last year’s WR16 is now available in the ninth round, and often as late as the mid-10th. In 2017, Anderson outscored many of this year’s top WR picks, including Mike Evans, Demaryius Thomas, Stefon Diggs, and T.Y. Hilton.
However, his ADP 109th overall of isn’t in the same stratosphere.
Anderson’s awful offseason and lack of track record are seemingly the culprit. A January arrest means that a suspension is certain. However, considering that felony charges from the incident have been dropped, and only misdemeanor charges remain, anything more than a three-game ban would be extreme.
Assuming that Anderson picks up where he left off last year, you get at least 13 games of WR2 production for the price of a 10th-round pick. That’s for too low for a WR who had more Air Yards and a higher average depth of target than Hilton and Evans in 2017, both of whom will cost you a high pick in 2018.
Anderson was simply stellar in 2017, scoring in the 80th percentile or better in almost every WR metric available.
The Jets not only didn’t add any WR depth in the offseason, but they lost Austin Seferian-Jenkins and his 74 targets to free agency. Meanwhile, moving from Josh McCown to some combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold at quarterback can’t be considered a much of a downgrade, if at all.
Anderson is the best value in the 10th round and a potential league winner at his depressed price point.
- Using the parameters of raw production, efficiency, age, weight, and draft position. (back)