RotoViz Ultimate Rankings: Quarterback Edition – Finding Value At the Intersection of Projections, Rankings, Ranges of Outcomes, and ADP
Image Credit: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Deshaun Watson.

Dave Caban compares RotoViz Ultimate Rankings to Quarterback ADP and identifies six passers that drafters can acquire at favorable prices.

Over the course of the last couple of months, I’ve built projections for every NFL team, explored historically-based range of outcome projections, and helped to create our RotoViz redraft rankings. Each exercise played an important role in shaping my overall view of the 2020 fantasy football season and the players I’ll be targeting, drafting, and avoiding while on the clock in the coming weeks. While the data points created by these activities have distinct applications, there is also utility to be found by combining the three.

To do so, I gathered data from our subjective RotoViz projections, rankings, and Historical Distribution Scores (HDS) from the Range of Outcomes app. If you’re new to the site, I’d recommend that you check out the links to get a better sense of why each is a useful input in the player evaluation process. With this information in hand, I isolated the results of each position and converted the projections and HDS into rankings. I then combined these rankings, placing added emphasis on the site rankings which were created by six of our team members and are informed by the other measures, and converted them to a final set of rankings for the position. These rankings attempt to encapsulate a player’s team level-situation via the subjective projections, realistic range of outcomes via HDS, and an approximation of perceived draft value via rankings. By comparing these rankings with FFPC ADP data, we can get a sense of the players that make for targets or fades.

There are a few important caveats: only players that made our top-240 of redraft rankings are included, and of those, only players for whom an HDS could be generated. As a result, rookies and some players that missed significant time in 2019 are not included.

The Ultimate Quarterback Rankings

As you’d expect, the “Projection,” “Ranking,” and “HDS” columns list each player’s ranking for the particular category. “Weighted Average” is calculated by multiplying a player’s Projection and HDS by 0.25, and adding this total to his Ranking multiplied by 0.5. “RVUR” stands for “RotoViz Ultimate Ranking” and simply converts the Weighted Average results into rankings. “ADP” lists FFPC redraft ADP and the “Diff” column subtracts ADP from RVUR. As a result, the more positive a player’s Diff, the more attractive of a pick he is at his ADP. I’ve also included the results in a table format that can be copied at the end of the article. The results are sorted by ADP.

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Dave Caban

Senior Fantasy Analyst, app developer, hosts the RotoViz Radio Flagship, auction draft enthusiast.

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