Early FFPC Best Ball Drafts: Round 1 Looks a Lot Different in 2021

Shawn Siegele
January 26, 2021

FFPC Best Ball drafts are live! Shawn Siegele talks strategy and discusses three key developments from the 2021 shakeup in first-round ADP.

A late Nyheim Hines stat revision knocked our FFPC Main Event team from 29th to 31st and cost us a chunk of cash, but Blair Andrews and I are already reinvesting some of our profits on 2021 leagues.

We’ll keep you updated on all the key developments throughout the offseason, as we once again write the Best Ball Workshop for 2021. Last year, the lessons from Workshop turned in sky-high win rates due to insights from the frankly unfair Roster Construction Explorer.

Blair and I are currently drafting in both Classic and Superflex formats, and we’ll walk through the tactical elements of both in the RCEs. But let’s start with some of the fun stuff. We have so many questions to answer as fantasy undergoes a shakeup in first-round ADP:

In a chaotic landscape at RB, who’s in favor and who’s falling?
Will WRs benefit from the spike scoring and gain an early-round foothold?
Just how expensive will the Konami code QBs get, and what tactics should you employ to stay ahead of the crowd?

I love these early drafts because they provide a window into the future. How are the world’s best players processing last season? We won’t get to all of those questions today, but here are three things you should know.

Update: FFPC Best Ball ADP is now live in the Exposures and ADP tool.

1. Travis Kelce is going to challenge the top RBs

Kelce came off the board at 1.03 in Classic and 1.08 in SF, which means he was taken ahead of Saquon Barkley in one draft and Dalvin Cook in the other. He was the pick ahead of Alvin Kamara in both leagues.

Kelce was the second-highest overall scorer in TE Premium formats in 2020, trailing Kamara by 11 points. He’s also been the picture of health. After his rookie season was wiped out due to a knee injury in 2013, he’s played seven consecutive seasons without missing a game. His two absences were Week 17 contests where Kansas City rested their starters.

Owners who have perused the historical numbers know how hard it is for a player to maintain elite win rates. The RB ADP leaderboard is riddled with broken seasons and sub-5% win rates. Between injuries, the difficulty of repeating mega-seasons, and the brutal scoring environments at these ADP levels, even the best players struggle.

That hasn’t been true for Kelce. Check out his seasonal finishes in the Best Ball Win Rate Explorer.

The Chiefs star has been the model of consistency, posting win rates above 11% in every season. Even with a lofty first-round ADP in 2020, he exploded to 19%.

The crazy results in scoring and win rate don’t even contemplate his postseason endeavors. He posted a 13-118-2 result in this year’s AFC Championship game after going off for 10-134-3 in last year’s divisional round. The regular season monster also owns two of the three best playoff games ever at the position.

Owners have to hope Kelce keeps his streak alive and fights off Father Time for one more season.

The Best Ball Win Rate Explorer has been updated with 2020 results and new features for 2021. It now includes Slim formats in FFPC as well as new offerings for other providers. The Stack Explorer has added functionality, and joins the Player Win Rate Explorer, the Positional Heatmap, and the Stack Analysis as advanced features within the tool.

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Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

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