Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Zero RB Quietly Posted a 14% Win Rate In 2018 and All of the Conditions Are In Place Again for 2019

Everyone knows about the RB Apocalypse in 2015. First-round running backs averaged 29 points below replacement that season. That wasn’t the case at all in 2018. Four first-rounders scored more than 300 points, and the group averaged 69 points above replacement even with Le’Veon Bell’s bagel. On the surface, these two years couldn’t be any more different, and yet a weird thing happens when we…...

This Cheap, Young Vet With Locked-In Targets Is a Dead Ringer for Parris Campbell and Mecole Hardman

Mecole Hardman and Parris Campbell were cult favorites heading into the 2019 NFL draft. But when they landed in the second round to Kansas City and Indianapolis, the fantasy community truly fell in love. The two speedsters were suddenly set to spend their careers lassoing lasers from Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck. For most of the summer they stayed well ahead of Andy Isabella and…...

How to Avoid RB Land Mines: 9 Traits to Sidestep Early, Plus 10 Backs to Target

Zero RB quietly posted a 14% win rate in 2018. Meanwhile, RBs drafted in Rounds 3 and 4 won at absurdly low rates and the position accounted for the seven worst individual-player win rates of anyone drafted in the first four rounds. The simple solution is to just avoid drafting RBs in that area. But what if you don’t want the simple solution? If we…...

One Rookie RB Is Starting to Look Like the 2019 Nick Chubb, And It’s Not Who You Might Think

Last season, Nick Chubb’s ADP fell consistently throughout draft season as it became clear that Carlos Hyde was going to begin the season as the starter. Chubb wasn’t even the second Cleveland running back selected, as drafters assumed the Browns would continue to deploy their ace receiving back, Duke Johnson. Chubb appeared to get lucky. Cleveland eventually traded Hyde, and Chubb performed well enough to…...

If You’re Not Targeting Second-Year Breakout WRs, You’re Giving Away the Biggest Edge in Fantasy: 7 Things to Know

From 2001 to 2018, 34 wide receivers hit 200 points for the first time. If you think a rate of almost two a year is impressive, consider this: Since 2010, 22 WRs have broken out during their second years, more than any other breakout class has managed during the entire 18-year window. While fantasy owners used to believe in the third-year WR breakout, savvy owners…...

My July Board: A Look at Everyone I’m Drafting in 2019, Plus 27 Priority Targets

Shawn Siegele will provide his annual Zero RB candidates and Breakout WR lists later this summer, but today he offers a sneak peak at the players he’s selecting in 2019 drafts, including 27 priority targets. Last year, his priority targets included advice to do whatever it takes to acquire Christian McCaffrey and to select Tyler Boyd in the last round of every draft. As training…...

The Titans Are Going To Ride Derrick Henry, But Is That Enough to Remove Him From the All-Trap Team?

Derrick Henry’s star went supernova in the 2018 playoffs. Over Weeks 14 and 15, he totaled more than 400 yards and scored six touchdowns. With a solid Week 16 performance, he notched 94 fantasy points in the playoffs, the 13th-best playoff total since the turn of the century, and one of only six 90-plus performances this decade. It comes as no surprise that new offensive…...

DRAFT Best Ball: Want to Post a Quick 15% Win Rate? The Roster Construction Explorer Reacts to An Expert Mock

At the invitation of former RotoViz star Ben Gretch, I recently participated in a CBS best ball mock with DRAFT settings. The draft was a blast, as you would expect with Ben, Heath Cummings, current RotoViz contributors like Mike Beers and T.J. Calkins, as well as former contributors and friends of the site like Davis Mattek and Josh ADHD. With such a star-studded cast of…...

The RotoViz Apps See a Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, James Conner Chimera In This Trendy Sleeper

Things move quickly at the running back position. Values shift in an instant. While elite wide receivers can actually benefit from the presence of other star WRs on the roster, backs need more of the spotlight to themselves in order to run up those dual-threat snap counts. This is what makes the two positions so fundamentally different in fantasy. It’s this tendency for the big…...

Who Will Be the 2019 Chicago Bears? A Coaching Change Will Unleash This Absolutely Loaded Offense

The Rams hired Sean McVay in 2017, and Los Angeles more than doubled their point output from 224 to 478, a worst-to-first turnaround that set the stage for 2018’s league-wide offensive revival. Meanwhile, Doug Pederson, Andy Reid disciple and second-year head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, led his team to a 41-33 Super Bowl victory over the Patriots. They were the third-highest scoring team in…...

Third-Year Breakout WRs: 8 Stats You Need to Know and Why 2019 Is Loaded With Candidates

From 2001 to 2013, fantasy owners watched as 19 third-year wide receivers hit 200 points for the first time. Over the following four years, only Davante Adams managed the feat, and buzz over the third-year WR breakout disappeared. Even during the earlier era, second-year receivers still held a sizable edge. They’ve now widened that lead considerably as NFL offenses scheme to unleash their highly-drafted stars…...

Fantasy’s 8 Most Explosive ‘Breather’ Backs and How to Exploit Their Crazy ADPs

Shawn Siegele looks at the eight most explosive NFL “breather” backs and explains how to exploit their sometimes silly, occasionally ridiculous, and always crazy 2019 ADPs. I have an admission to make. I love the small backs, and I love the freakish athletes. I love run to daylight and have little interest in three yards and a cloud of dust. But, even more than how…...

BestBall Workshop No. 13 – What’s the Best Time of the Year for Zero RB?

To this point in the Best Ball Workshop, we’ve broken down the key tactics at every position, looked at the player selections that best fit dominant strategies, and synthesized our analysis with 7 Hacks to Win Your BestBall10s. Today, we dive into the calendar and look at whether some approaches work better at different times of the year. One of the many terrific features of…...

4th-Year Breakout Wide Receivers: These Inexpensive Breakouts Haven’t Come From the Players You’d Expect

Shawn Siegele deploys the RotoViz Screener to provide all the key stats on fourth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. Fantasy leagues are won by rostering breakout players. This is also makes these players an obvious trap. How much sense does it make to go through your draft selecting players who haven’t been productive? In 20 Rounds of Death, I detailed each of my 20…...

7 Best Ball Hacks From The Roster Construction Explorer That Will Boost Your Win Rate

Over the course of 11 lessons in the Best Ball Workshop, we examined the key tactics at every position and used the Fanball Roster Construction Explorer to locate exploitable opportunities in all areas of your draft. Today, we’ll look at seven of the most important takeaways from the workshops. For readers who have scoured the lessons in detail, this blueprint will help you synthesize those…...

5 Things You Need to Know About 5th-Year Breakout WRs

Shawn Siegele provides all the key stats you need to know about fifth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. Fantasy leagues are won by rostering breakout players, but it’s obviously not as simple as going through your draft and selecting players who haven’t been productive to that point. Reaching for unproductive players and being overweight on trendy breakout candidates is a quick ticket to last…...

Don’t Be Daniel Snyder – The Roster Construction Explorer Finds 5 Players to Win Your League, Not the Offseason

The fantasy football sphere offers a lot of excellent team evaluation tools. These applications do a good job at what they’re designed to do – tell you if you’ve addressed the various positions with players projected to score well by experts. This obviously has value. If you select expert-favored players at a value to ADP, your team is unlikely to finish at the bottom of…...

Already Trendy and Expensive, The Next JuJu Smith-Schuster Could Still Be a Bargain at His Lofty Price

In Best Ball Workshop No. 11, we discovered a key insight for constructing our BestBall10s lineups. As Shawn Siegele began to put together his list of 5 Players the Roster Construction Explorer Wants You to Target, he realized that one of these receivers deserved a slightly deeper dive. Last year at this time I was writing about JuJu Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp, pointing out how…...

Zero RB Quietly Posted a 14% Win Rate In 2018 and All of the Conditions Are In Place Again for 2019

Everyone knows about the RB Apocalypse in 2015. First-round running backs averaged 29 points below replacement that season. That wasn’t the case at all in 2018. Four first-rounders scored more than 300 points, and the group averaged 69 points above replacement even with Le’Veon Bell’s bagel. On the surface, these two years couldn’t be any more different, and yet a weird thing happens when we…...

This Cheap, Young Vet With Locked-In Targets Is a Dead Ringer for Parris Campbell and Mecole Hardman

Mecole Hardman and Parris Campbell were cult favorites heading into the 2019 NFL draft. But when they landed in the second round to Kansas City and Indianapolis, the fantasy community truly fell in love. The two speedsters were suddenly set to spend their careers lassoing lasers from Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck. For most of the summer they stayed well ahead of Andy Isabella and…...

How to Avoid RB Land Mines: 9 Traits to Sidestep Early, Plus 10 Backs to Target

Zero RB quietly posted a 14% win rate in 2018. Meanwhile, RBs drafted in Rounds 3 and 4 won at absurdly low rates and the position accounted for the seven worst individual-player win rates of anyone drafted in the first four rounds. The simple solution is to just avoid drafting RBs in that area. But what if you don’t want the simple solution? If we…...

One Rookie RB Is Starting to Look Like the 2019 Nick Chubb, And It’s Not Who You Might Think

Last season, Nick Chubb’s ADP fell consistently throughout draft season as it became clear that Carlos Hyde was going to begin the season as the starter. Chubb wasn’t even the second Cleveland running back selected, as drafters assumed the Browns would continue to deploy their ace receiving back, Duke Johnson. Chubb appeared to get lucky. Cleveland eventually traded Hyde, and Chubb performed well enough to…...

If You’re Not Targeting Second-Year Breakout WRs, You’re Giving Away the Biggest Edge in Fantasy: 7 Things to Know

From 2001 to 2018, 34 wide receivers hit 200 points for the first time. If you think a rate of almost two a year is impressive, consider this: Since 2010, 22 WRs have broken out during their second years, more than any other breakout class has managed during the entire 18-year window. While fantasy owners used to believe in the third-year WR breakout, savvy owners…...

My July Board: A Look at Everyone I’m Drafting in 2019, Plus 27 Priority Targets

Shawn Siegele will provide his annual Zero RB candidates and Breakout WR lists later this summer, but today he offers a sneak peak at the players he’s selecting in 2019 drafts, including 27 priority targets. Last year, his priority targets included advice to do whatever it takes to acquire Christian McCaffrey and to select Tyler Boyd in the last round of every draft. As training…...

The Titans Are Going To Ride Derrick Henry, But Is That Enough to Remove Him From the All-Trap Team?

Derrick Henry’s star went supernova in the 2018 playoffs. Over Weeks 14 and 15, he totaled more than 400 yards and scored six touchdowns. With a solid Week 16 performance, he notched 94 fantasy points in the playoffs, the 13th-best playoff total since the turn of the century, and one of only six 90-plus performances this decade. It comes as no surprise that new offensive…...

DRAFT Best Ball: Want to Post a Quick 15% Win Rate? The Roster Construction Explorer Reacts to An Expert Mock

At the invitation of former RotoViz star Ben Gretch, I recently participated in a CBS best ball mock with DRAFT settings. The draft was a blast, as you would expect with Ben, Heath Cummings, current RotoViz contributors like Mike Beers and T.J. Calkins, as well as former contributors and friends of the site like Davis Mattek and Josh ADHD. With such a star-studded cast of…...

The RotoViz Apps See a Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, James Conner Chimera In This Trendy Sleeper

Things move quickly at the running back position. Values shift in an instant. While elite wide receivers can actually benefit from the presence of other star WRs on the roster, backs need more of the spotlight to themselves in order to run up those dual-threat snap counts. This is what makes the two positions so fundamentally different in fantasy. It’s this tendency for the big…...

Who Will Be the 2019 Chicago Bears? A Coaching Change Will Unleash This Absolutely Loaded Offense

The Rams hired Sean McVay in 2017, and Los Angeles more than doubled their point output from 224 to 478, a worst-to-first turnaround that set the stage for 2018’s league-wide offensive revival. Meanwhile, Doug Pederson, Andy Reid disciple and second-year head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, led his team to a 41-33 Super Bowl victory over the Patriots. They were the third-highest scoring team in…...

Third-Year Breakout WRs: 8 Stats You Need to Know and Why 2019 Is Loaded With Candidates

From 2001 to 2013, fantasy owners watched as 19 third-year wide receivers hit 200 points for the first time. Over the following four years, only Davante Adams managed the feat, and buzz over the third-year WR breakout disappeared. Even during the earlier era, second-year receivers still held a sizable edge. They’ve now widened that lead considerably as NFL offenses scheme to unleash their highly-drafted stars…...

Fantasy’s 8 Most Explosive ‘Breather’ Backs and How to Exploit Their Crazy ADPs

Shawn Siegele looks at the eight most explosive NFL “breather” backs and explains how to exploit their sometimes silly, occasionally ridiculous, and always crazy 2019 ADPs. I have an admission to make. I love the small backs, and I love the freakish athletes. I love run to daylight and have little interest in three yards and a cloud of dust. But, even more than how…...

BestBall Workshop No. 13 – What’s the Best Time of the Year for Zero RB?

To this point in the Best Ball Workshop, we’ve broken down the key tactics at every position, looked at the player selections that best fit dominant strategies, and synthesized our analysis with 7 Hacks to Win Your BestBall10s. Today, we dive into the calendar and look at whether some approaches work better at different times of the year. One of the many terrific features of…...

4th-Year Breakout Wide Receivers: These Inexpensive Breakouts Haven’t Come From the Players You’d Expect

Shawn Siegele deploys the RotoViz Screener to provide all the key stats on fourth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. Fantasy leagues are won by rostering breakout players. This is also makes these players an obvious trap. How much sense does it make to go through your draft selecting players who haven’t been productive? In 20 Rounds of Death, I detailed each of my 20…...

7 Best Ball Hacks From The Roster Construction Explorer That Will Boost Your Win Rate

Over the course of 11 lessons in the Best Ball Workshop, we examined the key tactics at every position and used the Fanball Roster Construction Explorer to locate exploitable opportunities in all areas of your draft. Today, we’ll look at seven of the most important takeaways from the workshops. For readers who have scoured the lessons in detail, this blueprint will help you synthesize those…...

5 Things You Need to Know About 5th-Year Breakout WRs

Shawn Siegele provides all the key stats you need to know about fifth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. Fantasy leagues are won by rostering breakout players, but it’s obviously not as simple as going through your draft and selecting players who haven’t been productive to that point. Reaching for unproductive players and being overweight on trendy breakout candidates is a quick ticket to last…...

Don’t Be Daniel Snyder – The Roster Construction Explorer Finds 5 Players to Win Your League, Not the Offseason

The fantasy football sphere offers a lot of excellent team evaluation tools. These applications do a good job at what they’re designed to do – tell you if you’ve addressed the various positions with players projected to score well by experts. This obviously has value. If you select expert-favored players at a value to ADP, your team is unlikely to finish at the bottom of…...

Already Trendy and Expensive, The Next JuJu Smith-Schuster Could Still Be a Bargain at His Lofty Price

In Best Ball Workshop No. 11, we discovered a key insight for constructing our BestBall10s lineups. As Shawn Siegele began to put together his list of 5 Players the Roster Construction Explorer Wants You to Target, he realized that one of these receivers deserved a slightly deeper dive. Last year at this time I was writing about JuJu Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp, pointing out how…...

Zero RB Quietly Posted a 14% Win Rate In 2018 and All of the Conditions Are In Place Again for 2019

Everyone knows about the RB Apocalypse in 2015. First-round running backs averaged 29 points below replacement that season. That wasn’t the case at all in 2018. Four first-rounders scored more than 300 points, and the group averaged 69 points above replacement even with Le’Veon Bell’s bagel. On the surface, these two years couldn’t be any more different, and yet a weird thing happens when we…...

This Cheap, Young Vet With Locked-In Targets Is a Dead Ringer for Parris Campbell and Mecole Hardman

Mecole Hardman and Parris Campbell were cult favorites heading into the 2019 NFL draft. But when they landed in the second round to Kansas City and Indianapolis, the fantasy community truly fell in love. The two speedsters were suddenly set to spend their careers lassoing lasers from Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck. For most of the summer they stayed well ahead of Andy Isabella and…...

How to Avoid RB Land Mines: 9 Traits to Sidestep Early, Plus 10 Backs to Target

Zero RB quietly posted a 14% win rate in 2018. Meanwhile, RBs drafted in Rounds 3 and 4 won at absurdly low rates and the position accounted for the seven worst individual-player win rates of anyone drafted in the first four rounds. The simple solution is to just avoid drafting RBs in that area. But what if you don’t want the simple solution? If we…...

One Rookie RB Is Starting to Look Like the 2019 Nick Chubb, And It’s Not Who You Might Think

Last season, Nick Chubb’s ADP fell consistently throughout draft season as it became clear that Carlos Hyde was going to begin the season as the starter. Chubb wasn’t even the second Cleveland running back selected, as drafters assumed the Browns would continue to deploy their ace receiving back, Duke Johnson. Chubb appeared to get lucky. Cleveland eventually traded Hyde, and Chubb performed well enough to…...

If You’re Not Targeting Second-Year Breakout WRs, You’re Giving Away the Biggest Edge in Fantasy: 7 Things to Know

From 2001 to 2018, 34 wide receivers hit 200 points for the first time. If you think a rate of almost two a year is impressive, consider this: Since 2010, 22 WRs have broken out during their second years, more than any other breakout class has managed during the entire 18-year window. While fantasy owners used to believe in the third-year WR breakout, savvy owners…...

My July Board: A Look at Everyone I’m Drafting in 2019, Plus 27 Priority Targets

Shawn Siegele will provide his annual Zero RB candidates and Breakout WR lists later this summer, but today he offers a sneak peak at the players he’s selecting in 2019 drafts, including 27 priority targets. Last year, his priority targets included advice to do whatever it takes to acquire Christian McCaffrey and to select Tyler Boyd in the last round of every draft. As training…...

The Titans Are Going To Ride Derrick Henry, But Is That Enough to Remove Him From the All-Trap Team?

Derrick Henry’s star went supernova in the 2018 playoffs. Over Weeks 14 and 15, he totaled more than 400 yards and scored six touchdowns. With a solid Week 16 performance, he notched 94 fantasy points in the playoffs, the 13th-best playoff total since the turn of the century, and one of only six 90-plus performances this decade. It comes as no surprise that new offensive…...

DRAFT Best Ball: Want to Post a Quick 15% Win Rate? The Roster Construction Explorer Reacts to An Expert Mock

At the invitation of former RotoViz star Ben Gretch, I recently participated in a CBS best ball mock with DRAFT settings. The draft was a blast, as you would expect with Ben, Heath Cummings, current RotoViz contributors like Mike Beers and T.J. Calkins, as well as former contributors and friends of the site like Davis Mattek and Josh ADHD. With such a star-studded cast of…...

The RotoViz Apps See a Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, James Conner Chimera In This Trendy Sleeper

Things move quickly at the running back position. Values shift in an instant. While elite wide receivers can actually benefit from the presence of other star WRs on the roster, backs need more of the spotlight to themselves in order to run up those dual-threat snap counts. This is what makes the two positions so fundamentally different in fantasy. It’s this tendency for the big…...

Who Will Be the 2019 Chicago Bears? A Coaching Change Will Unleash This Absolutely Loaded Offense

The Rams hired Sean McVay in 2017, and Los Angeles more than doubled their point output from 224 to 478, a worst-to-first turnaround that set the stage for 2018’s league-wide offensive revival. Meanwhile, Doug Pederson, Andy Reid disciple and second-year head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, led his team to a 41-33 Super Bowl victory over the Patriots. They were the third-highest scoring team in…...

Third-Year Breakout WRs: 8 Stats You Need to Know and Why 2019 Is Loaded With Candidates

From 2001 to 2013, fantasy owners watched as 19 third-year wide receivers hit 200 points for the first time. Over the following four years, only Davante Adams managed the feat, and buzz over the third-year WR breakout disappeared. Even during the earlier era, second-year receivers still held a sizable edge. They’ve now widened that lead considerably as NFL offenses scheme to unleash their highly-drafted stars…...

Fantasy’s 8 Most Explosive ‘Breather’ Backs and How to Exploit Their Crazy ADPs

Shawn Siegele looks at the eight most explosive NFL “breather” backs and explains how to exploit their sometimes silly, occasionally ridiculous, and always crazy 2019 ADPs. I have an admission to make. I love the small backs, and I love the freakish athletes. I love run to daylight and have little interest in three yards and a cloud of dust. But, even more than how…...

BestBall Workshop No. 13 – What’s the Best Time of the Year for Zero RB?

To this point in the Best Ball Workshop, we’ve broken down the key tactics at every position, looked at the player selections that best fit dominant strategies, and synthesized our analysis with 7 Hacks to Win Your BestBall10s. Today, we dive into the calendar and look at whether some approaches work better at different times of the year. One of the many terrific features of…...

4th-Year Breakout Wide Receivers: These Inexpensive Breakouts Haven’t Come From the Players You’d Expect

Shawn Siegele deploys the RotoViz Screener to provide all the key stats on fourth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. Fantasy leagues are won by rostering breakout players. This is also makes these players an obvious trap. How much sense does it make to go through your draft selecting players who haven’t been productive? In 20 Rounds of Death, I detailed each of my 20…...

7 Best Ball Hacks From The Roster Construction Explorer That Will Boost Your Win Rate

Over the course of 11 lessons in the Best Ball Workshop, we examined the key tactics at every position and used the Fanball Roster Construction Explorer to locate exploitable opportunities in all areas of your draft. Today, we’ll look at seven of the most important takeaways from the workshops. For readers who have scoured the lessons in detail, this blueprint will help you synthesize those…...

5 Things You Need to Know About 5th-Year Breakout WRs

Shawn Siegele provides all the key stats you need to know about fifth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. Fantasy leagues are won by rostering breakout players, but it’s obviously not as simple as going through your draft and selecting players who haven’t been productive to that point. Reaching for unproductive players and being overweight on trendy breakout candidates is a quick ticket to last…...

Don’t Be Daniel Snyder – The Roster Construction Explorer Finds 5 Players to Win Your League, Not the Offseason

The fantasy football sphere offers a lot of excellent team evaluation tools. These applications do a good job at what they’re designed to do – tell you if you’ve addressed the various positions with players projected to score well by experts. This obviously has value. If you select expert-favored players at a value to ADP, your team is unlikely to finish at the bottom of…...

Already Trendy and Expensive, The Next JuJu Smith-Schuster Could Still Be a Bargain at His Lofty Price

In Best Ball Workshop No. 11, we discovered a key insight for constructing our BestBall10s lineups. As Shawn Siegele began to put together his list of 5 Players the Roster Construction Explorer Wants You to Target, he realized that one of these receivers deserved a slightly deeper dive. Last year at this time I was writing about JuJu Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp, pointing out how…...

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