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4 Players I’m Begging You Not to Draft

I tend to be pretty moderate in my fantasy football views. I believe the margins are so thin in this game that almost any pick is defensible. These players are the exception.

Last year, there were basically four players I suggested you avoid. I thought spending third-round pick on Marshawn Lynch was insane, a mistake only topped by taking Martavis Bryant in the fourth. I was right on both — while Lynch was better than I thought, he was nowhere near worth a third.

I also asked that you fade Kelvin Benjamin and Dez Bryant. Hopefully you listened then and are buying (or rather, selling) what I’m selling this year as well.

Here are the players I’m begging you not to draft in 2018 fantasy drafts.

D’Onta Foreman

As someone who is heavily invested in Foreman in dynasty leagues, I think an excellent outcome for his 2018 season would be proving that his career isn’t over.

I don’t care how late you land him. Counting on any fantasy production from a player coming off perhaps the most devastating injury a player can suffer is wasting a pick.

Dr. Jeff Budoff wrote about how difficult Foreman’s return to relevance is going to be after tearing his achilles:

A recent paper from October 2017 involving 62 professional athletes (32 from the NFL, 25 from the NBA and 5 from MLB) that underwent Achilles tendon repair reported that 19/62 (30.6 percent) were not able to return to play. In other words, their professional athletic career was over following this injury.

Budoff goes on to say the remaining 69 percent of athletes played an average of 75 percent their team’s games in the first year back from injury.

Yet drafters are still using a valuable roster spot on Foreman.

Capture

It’s possible, but still quite unlikely, that Foreman returns to some semblance of his old self in the last third of the year. But are you really going to hold him that entire time?

Joe Mixon

I recommended Lamar Miller as an arbitrage play on Mixon, but to be frank, you could point to a number of cheaper RBs as better plays. It’s not that Mixon won’t break out, it’s that even if he does, he will barely pay off on his second-round price.

Here’s a long list of players who are cheaper and have a similar, or better, range of outcomes than Mixon according to our Sim Scores App.

sims

Dez Bryant

I’m surprised this needs to be said, but at this point, Bryant’s odds of making a meaningful contribution to your fantasy team in 2018 are very long.

Yet here we are.

dez

There are a number of teams out there with championship aspirations and thin depth charts at WR. New England and Green Bay come to mind, yet Brant remains a free agent. At last check, he was looking at playing football “a lil’ bit later in the year.”
Even if he signed somewhere tomorrow, he’s facing an uphill battle to learn a playbook and establish a connection with a new quarterback. For all we know, he might also just be completely washed.

I can’t blame you if you drafted Bryant earlier in the off season in the hopes of a better outcome, but this ship has sailed, and it’s an easy pass.

Aaron Rodgers

This is assuming that Rodgers is the first QB off the board and hasn’t fallen past the fifth round. If either of those things is not the case, then go ahead and grab him if you’re so inclined.

Just remember that he’s far from a lock to be the overall QB1. Rodgers has won that honor only twice in the past six years. Yes, that includes an injury-lost 2017, but even in his first five games before getting hurt, Rodgers was just the QB4 in scoring.

Don’t pay up when guys with very similar ranges of outcomes are available several rounds later.

arod

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