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3 Deep Sleepers RotoViz Likes More Than You

 

Being player agnostic is one of the best edges you can find in fantasy football in 2019 — don’t fall in love with a player, fall in love with his price. With the suite of RotoViz tools, finding this year’s most mispriced players is easier than ever, so let’s take a look at three deep sleepers we like more than the drafting public.

By using the ADP tools, we can compare players’ ADPs against the rankings of our RotoViz panel of experts, easily identifying those that are going too low or too high. We’ve got you covered in Fanball, FFPC, and Fantrax leagues in 2019, and for the purposes of this piece, we’re going to identify three of RotoViz’s best values in Fanball leagues, formerly MFL10s.

Andy Isabella

Positional ADP: WR74

RV Positional Rank: WR44

Difference: 30

Isabella currently has the biggest gap between where he’s being drafted and where the RotoViz rankers are drafting him.1

After the Arizona Cardinals took Isabella 62nd overall in the NFL Draft, Shawn Siegele tagged him as one of the best rookie values in recent memory on the strength of some Box Score Scouting comparisons to plays like Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks.

That was through the lens of dynasty rookie drafts, but his value is carrying over to redraft and best ball leagues, too, where most of our rankers are slotting him in as a pick in the 8th to 12th rounds.

The rest of the crowd? They’re giving Isabella a boost in the wake of the draft, but not much — he’s gone from a freebie to an ADP of 199.9.

 

While Isabella looks to be third, at best, on the Arizona depth chart behind Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, his insane final-year yardage market share of 47% suggests a guy capable of commanding targets, and in what is expected to be a spread-em-out-and-let-em-rip offense under Kliff Kingsbury, Isabella may have more rookie upside than his ADP suggests.

Paul Richardson

Positional ADP: 111

RotoViz Positional Rank: 85

Difference: 26

Richardson isn’t sexy. He’s not a league winner, and he’s not someone you should go out of your way to draft, but if only through attrition, he may well be the No. 1 WR in Washington, and that makes him a decent value according to our rankers, who have him as high as 188th overall compared to an ADP of  230.8.

Here is the Washington WR depth chart:

  • Richardson
  • Josh Doctson
  • Terry McLaurin
  • Jehu Chesson 
  • Brian Quick 
  • Trey Quinn
  • Kelvin Harmon

There are more names, but suffice to say you’ve probably never heard of most of them. Richardson wasn’t great as a free agent signing last year, even before he was lost for the season to a shoulder injury in Week 9.

That said, he was the top scoring target in that timeframe of the WRs currently on the roster.

Josh Doctson had the slight edge in targets and expected points in the first half of the year, but not nearly enough to assume that he’s the No. 1 WR target going into 2019, and Richardson ultimately scored more points.

The job could be Richardson’s, who is still just 27, and while that may not be an exciting role, it’s likely worth more than the tier-10 price he’s currently going for.

Jonnu Smith

Positional ADP: 32

RotoViz Position Ranks: 16

Difference: 16

Smith is an afterthought as the 32nd TE off the board, but our rankers see much more potential than that, putting him at TE16. Starting mid-season and up until he went down with a sprained MCL, finally started to see some of that potential that we’ve been talking about since 2017.

Albeit in a small, cherry-picked sample, that 153-point pace would have been good for a TE5 finish last year.

It still may be a little early for Smith. Last year, Mike Braude analyzed TE breakout ages to help predict a big season ahead for Eric Ebron. He found that the majority of them don’t break out until they hit 25, and Smith will turn 24 just before the season starts.

That said, very few TEs enter the league at 21-years old like Smith did — a total of 13 since 2000. More than half of those guys turned into studs at some point.

Here’s what that group of 21-year-old TE draftees did in their third seasons.

It’s a good sign for Smith to be part of this cohort at all, and even better that he finally flashed for stretches of last season.

If you’re taking a Zero-TE approach to best ball drafts, be sure to have some of the Titans TE in your portfolio.

  1. These ranks are overall ADP, not positional.  (back)

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