Shawn Siegele breaks down his philosophy for 2023 drafts by position group and highlights his 39 priority targets.
We had a lot of great content over the weekend, with Mat Irby providing his home league targets at RB and WR, Curtis Patrick detailing how to execute Hero RB and which players to select, and Bjorn Yang-Vaernet exploring the 5 Situations in Rounds 1 or 2 That Will Make or Break Your Drafts.
These pieces are a great complement to our full suite of best tools and workshops.
- Can You Go Too Far in Scooping ADP Value? – Jake Boes
- Keys to the 2023 Tournament Landscape – 2021 FFPC BBT Champion Conor O’Driscoll
- Don’t Fade the Top Player in 2023 By Avoiding This Trap – Michael Dubner
- Flexible Stack Options and Elite Upside from Bad Draft Slots – Michael Hitchcock
- The Best Selection in Every Round for BBM4 – Blair Andrews
And much, much more from those authors, plus my 2023 Best Ball Workshop.
In today’s exercise, I’m looking at the redraft environment with my full draft plan to the 2023 redraft season and the links and shows to help you find all of the detailed evidence in favor of these selections. The 2023 Home League Draft Plan came out last week, and we’ll compare and contrast some of those options with the high-stakes plan at the end of the article.
The Grades
- Priority: These are the players I have the most exposure to. We’re not going to completely ignore ADP – getting the double value when these players fall is an extra boost – but they tend to be either foundation players (early) or multiple-round values.
- Target: These aren’t must-draft selections, but they end up on a lot of my rosters and offer a good relationship of price to upside. In many cases the lack of a priority tag will relate to either price or some level of elevated bust risk.
- When Falls: These are the players I’m sprinkling in occasionally, and will draft if they fall substantially below ADP. In most cases these are players who still fit most builds, but they’re trendy enough that drafters are already buying one of the upside scenarios.
- In Emergency: This tag fits players who aren’t actual targets and aren’t value candidates as much as emergency plays later in drafts if you find your board is empty at a position of need. In redraft, it’s tough to get in a true emergency situation since FA can be used to address unbalanced rosters.
- If Flat: Sometimes QBs become solid plays if you don’t like the values at other positions. I’ll have some exposure to “if flat” QBs even if they’re not my top targets. Of course, at the QB position, even the “priority” picks are really only targets if you don’t like the values at other positions.
- No Tags: I’m not drafting the players left without a designation. It’s inevitable that a few of these players will hit, but I’m avoiding them because their risk/reward profiles will hurt you badly over time. These tend to be players who are being drafted due to workload projections that aren’t backed up by corresponding talent. In a few cases, the players do have the talent but sport a risk/reward profile that breaks structural rules in the current ADP environment. I’ll discuss that a little more in the Takeaways section.
Want to build a draft exclusively from the players who could make a massive jump? Make sure to check out our Stealing Bananas episodes projecting Round 1 and Round 2 of 2024 redraft leagues.
Below I have the evidence for my player selections sorted into themes that make it easier for you to structure your research. If you’re already set, jump directly into the 2023 Draft Plan and Priority Targets.
The Zero RB Series
- Part 1 – Running Backs No. 15 to No. 11 – These Guys Are Electric and Almost Free
- Part 2 – Running Backs No. 10 to No. 6 – Big-Time Talent, and Extreme Contingency-Based Upside
- Part 3 – Running Backs No. 5 to No. 1 – The Tournament Winners
THE RB PRIORITY TARGETS
- We’re Starting to Get Serious Jamaal Charles Vibes from This Rising Star in an Ascending Offense
- The Next Tony Pollard Has Less Backfield Competition and Is Already Blowing Up Camp
- This Young Behemoth May Outscore Bijan Robinson at a Much Cheaper Price
- You Don’t Even Have to Pay Second-Round Prices for a Combination of Jonathan Taylor and Le’Veon Bell
Running backs are out of fashion, but are we getting a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity?
THE WR DISCOUNT/BREAKOUT SUPER BLEND SERIES
- 5 Priority Wide Receiver Targets Who Are Absolutely Dominating Camp
- The Next George Kittle Is Already Here, Plus a Must-Draft WR Sleeper
- A Generational Talent Is About to Rewrite the NFL’s Most Important WR Room
- Out of the WR Dead Zone: An Overlooked Second-Year Talent With Immense Breakout Upside
- Fantasy’s Biggest Bust and Biggest Breakout Could Come from the Same Team
- 5 Deep Options Help You Navigate the WR Black Hole
Or take a look at the 2023 draft plans . . .
THE DRAFT SERIES
- These 4 Insights Will Help You Build a Bulletproof Draft Plan in Home Leagues
- Never Chase the Points: How to Attack 2023’s Most Competitive Leagues
- A Must-Draft Player from Each of the First 5 Rounds of FFPC Main Events
- Elite-But-Lean WR Builds for Underdog
- A Double-Anchor RB/Double Breakout TE Roster With Impressive WR Firepower
- My Favorite Way to Exploit Both RB and WR Trends
- Combining Elite QB with Hyperfragile RB
- Crushing Your Rookie Draft with Our Tier-Based, Perpetual Reloading Approach
